2012 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania

The 2012 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania took place on November 6, 2012, as part of the 2012 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. The primary election to select the Democratic and Republican candidates had been held on April 24, 2012.[1] Pennsylvania voters chose 20 electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama and his running mate, Vice President Joe Biden, against Republican challenger and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and his running mate, Congressman Paul Ryan. Pennsylvania's electoral vote number was a reduction from the 2008 delegation, which had 21 electors. This change was due to reapportionment following the 2010 United States Census.[2] Pennsylvania's 20 electoral votes are allotted on a winner-take-all basis.[3]

2012 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania

← 2008November 6, 20122016 →
 
NomineeBarack ObamaMitt Romney
PartyDemocraticRepublican
Home stateIllinoisMassachusetts
Running mateJoe BidenPaul Ryan
Electoral vote200
Popular vote2,990,2742,680,434
Percentage51.97%46.59%


President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

Democratic incumbent President Barack Obama received 51.97% of the vote, beating Republican challenger Mitt Romney's 46.59%.[4] Also on the ballot were physician Jill Stein of the Green Party and former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson of the Libertarian Party, who received 0.37% and 0.87%, respectively.[4] Other candidates could run as write-in candidates, which received a total 0.2% of the vote. The state had been considered likely, but not certain, to go to Obama.[5] While the state had voted for a Democrat since 1992, it remained competitive, especially after Bush's loss of only 2.5% in 2004. Its competitiveness was attributable to the stark contrast between the state's diverse, urban voters in areas such as Philadelphia and Pittsburgh; and rural, blue-collar voters in the rest of the state. However, massive margins in the urban regions of the state and victories in the Philadelphia suburbs, Lehigh Valley, Scranton, and Erie delivered a considerable victory for the president. Regardless, Romney improved on John McCain's 10.32% loss in the state in 2008, and flipped five counties that voted for Obama four years prior.[6]

Five counties that voted for Obama in 2008 voted for Romney in 2012. This included Cambria County, which made Obama the first Democrat to win the presidency without carrying the county since Woodrow Wilson in 1916. Chester County, a Philadelphia suburb, also voted for Romney, though it would flip back into the Democratic column in 2016[7] and remain there in 2020.[8] Obama became the first Democrat to win the White House without carrying Elk County since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1940, and the first to do so without carrying Carbon County since John F. Kennedy in 1960. As of the 2020 presidential election, this is the last time that Chester County voted for the Republican candidate and the last time that Luzerne County voted for the Democratic candidate. This is also the last time Pennsylvania voted more Democratic than the nation as a whole. This remains the most recent presidential election where Pennsylvania voted to the left of Colorado and Virginia and to the right of Wisconsin and Iowa.

Primary elections edit

Democratic primary edit

Incumbent Barack Obama ran unopposed on the Democratic primary ballot.[1] He received 616,102 votes.[1] There were 19,082 write-in votes.[9][10] In the floor vote taken at the Democratic National Convention, 242 Pennsylvania delegates voted for Obama,[10] while the other 8 of the state's 250 allocated votes were not announced.[10]

Republican primary edit

Four candidates were on the Republican primary ballot: Mitt Romney, former Senator from Pennsylvania Rick Santorum, U.S. Representative from Texas Ron Paul, and former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich.[1] His home state was set to be the make-or-break primary for Santorum.[11] He had just lost 3 primaries to Romney, and Romney appeared poised to become the presumptive nominee by achieving a prohibitive lead.[11]

As momentum in the Republican race built for Romney, Santorum suspended his campaign for four days to meet with 'movement conservatives' to strategize.[12] Rather than returning to campaigning the next Monday, Rick and Karen Santorum canceled campaign events scheduled right after Easter weekend to be in the hospital with their youngest daughter.[13]

In deference to the sick child, Romney ceased airing attack ads, replacing them with positive introductory ones.

On April 10, Santorum formally suspended his campaign. On May 7, he endorsed Romney.[14] Santorum and Gingrich both released their delegates to Romney in August, shortly before the Republican National Convention.[15]

CandidateVotes[1]PercentageProjected delegates[16]Actual delegate vote[17]
Mitt Romney468,37457.8%3167
Rick Santorum149,05618.4%40
Ron Paul106,14813.1%55
Newt Gingrich84,53710.4%30
Write-in votes[9]2,8190.3%
Unprojected delegates29
Total:810,934100%7272

General election edit

Polling edit

In statewide opinion polling, incumbent Barack Obama consistently led challenger Mitt Romney by a margin of between 2 and 12 percentage points.[18] Analysts rated Pennsylvania as a "likely Democratic" or "Democratic-leaning" state in the presidential race.[5] On the morning of the election, polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight estimated that there was a 99% likelihood that Obama would win Pennsylvania's electoral votes.[19] At the time, Pennsylvania's electoral votes had gone to the Democratic candidate in every presidential election since Bill Clinton won it in 1992.[3] The average of the last three polls had Obama leading Romney 51% to 46%, which was very close to the actual result.[20]

During the summer, there was significant spending on political advertisements in Pennsylvania, by both the Obama campaign and pro-Romney groups such as Crossroads GPS and Americans for Prosperity.[21] However, because Obama maintained a consistent lead in polling, Pennsylvania came to be considered a "safe state" for Obama, and campaign advertising subsided substantially in August.[21] This changed in October, when pro-Romney groups Restore Our Future and Americans for Job Security spent $3 million on advertising in Pennsylvania.[21] Later that month, the Obama campaign and the Romney campaign both launched their own advertising campaigns in Pennsylvania.[21] On November 1, the Republican National Committee announced that it would spend $3 million on television ads in Pennsylvania in the final days of the campaign.[22] In total, pro-Romney spending in Pennsylvania was estimated to amount to as much as $12 million, much more than Obama campaign spending.[22] The Obama campaign characterized the pro-Romney spending surge as "an act of sheer desperation", while the Romney campaign argued that they had a realistic chance of winning the state.[22] In the end, Obama carried the state by a modest margin, albeit narrower than his 2008 landslide over Senator John McCain.

Results edit

2012 U.S. presidential election in Pennsylvania[4]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticBarack Obama 2,990,274 51.97
RepublicanMitt Romney2,680,43446.59
LibertarianGary Johnson49,9910.87
GreenJill Stein21,3410.37
OtherOther11,6300.20
Total votes5,753,670 100.0

By county edit

County[23]Barack Obama
Democratic
Mitt Romney
Republican
Gary Johnson
Libertarian
Jill Stein
Green
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal votes cast
#%#%#%#%#%#%
Adams15,09135.40%26,76762.80%4371.03%1620.38%1680.39%-11,676-27.40%42,625
Allegheny352,68756.54%262,03942.01%5,1960.83%2,1590.35%1,7460.28%90,64814.53%623,827
Armstrong9,04530.43%20,14267.77%2971.00%1180.40%1190.40%-11,097-37.34%29,721
Beaver37,05545.86%42,34452.41%7940.98%2810.35%3190.39%-5,289-6.55%80,793
Bedford4,78822.01%16,70276.79%1430.66%640.29%530.24%-11,914-54.78%21,750
Berks83,01148.64%84,70249.63%1,8321.07%7750.45%3560.21%-1,691-0.99%170,676
Blair16,27632.32%33,31966.16%4640.92%1820.36%1240.25%-17,043-33.84%50,365
Bradford8,62436.64%14,41061.21%2431.03%1490.63%1140.48%-5,786-24.57%23,540
Bucks160,52149.97%156,57948.74%2,8630.89%1,0530.33%2500.08%3,9421.23%321,266
Butler28,55031.83%59,76166.62%8190.91%3150.35%2540.28%-31,211-34.79%89,699
Cambria24,24940.06%35,16358.10%7121.18%4020.66%00.00%-10,914-18.04%60,526
Cameron72434.07%1,35963.95%190.89%90.42%140.66%-635-29.88%2,125
Carbon11,58045.07%13,50452.56%3561.39%1410.55%1130.44%-1,924-7.49%25,694
Centre34,17648.90%34,00148.65%1,0491.50%4000.57%2600.37%1750.25%69,886
Chester124,31149.22%124,84049.43%2,0820.82%7400.29%6030.24%-529-0.21%252,576
Clarion5,05631.08%10,82866.55%2081.28%940.58%840.52%-5,772-35.47%16,270
Clearfield11,12134.62%20,34763.34%3391.06%1600.50%1550.48%-9,226-28.72%32,122
Clinton5,73443.08%7,30354.86%1711.28%570.43%460.35%-1,569-11.78%13,311
Columbia10,93742.48%14,23655.30%3241.26%1260.49%1210.47%-3,299-12.82%25,744
Crawford13,88339.02%20,90158.75%4361.23%1680.47%1870.52%-7,018-19.73%35,575
Cumberland44,36739.90%64,80958.29%1,1911.07%4470.40%3770.34%-20,442-18.39%111,191
Dauphin64,96552.26%57,45046.22%1,1280.91%4650.37%2930.24%7,5156.04%124,301
Delaware171,79260.16%110,85338.82%2,0020.70%9170.32%00.00%60,93921.34%285,564
Elk5,46341.14%7,57957.08%1170.88%790.59%410.31%-2,116-15.94%13,279
Erie68,03657.12%49,02541.16%1,0870.91%4710.40%4950.42%19,01115.96%119,114
Fayette21,97145.16%26,01853.48%3650.75%1510.31%1440.30%-4,047-8.32%48,649
Forest89638.55%1,38359.51%230.99%100.43%120.52%-487-20.96%2,324
Franklin18,99530.00%43,26068.32%5710.90%2520.40%2420.38%-24,265-38.32%63,320
Fulton1,31021.06%4,81477.38%500.80%210.34%260.42%-3,504-56.32%6,221
Greene5,85240.23%8,42857.94%1160.80%680.47%820.56%-2,576-17.71%14,546
Huntingdon5,40930.57%11,97967.71%1350.76%1160.66%530.30%-6,570-37.14%17,692
Indiana14,47339.71%21,25758.33%3851.06%2060.57%1230.34%-6,784-18.62%36,444
Jefferson4,78726.33%13,04871.78%1730.95%890.49%810.44%-8,261-45.45%18,178
Juniata2,54726.55%6,86271.52%830.87%430.45%600.63%-4,315-44.97%9,595
Lackawanna61,83862.87%35,08535.67%7430.76%3490.35%3360.34%26,75327.20%98,351
Lancaster88,48139.62%130,66958.50%2,5271.13%7590.34%9150.41%-42,188-18.88%223,351
Lawrence17,51344.69%21,04753.71%3340.85%1420.36%1530.39%-3,534-9.02%39,189
Lebanon19,90035.05%35,87263.18%5891.04%2190.39%1970.35%-15,972-28.13%56,777
Lehigh78,28353.17%66,87445.42%1,3310.90%5140.35%2220.15%11,4097.75%147,224
Luzerne64,30751.51%58,32546.72%1,2611.01%5460.44%4060.33%5,9824.79%124,845
Lycoming15,20332.58%30,65865.69%4090.88%2230.48%1760.38%-15,455-33.11%46,669
McKean5,29734.95%9,54562.99%1781.17%880.58%460.30%-4,248-28.04%15,154
Mercer24,23247.48%25,92550.79%4870.95%2190.43%1760.34%-1,693-3.31%51,039
Mifflin4,27326.03%11,93972.73%1070.65%520.32%450.27%-7,666-46.70%16,416
Monroe35,22155.89%26,86742.63%5960.95%2330.37%1060.17%8,35413.26%63,023
Montgomery233,35656.52%174,38142.24%3,2530.79%1,2100.29%6690.16%58,97514.28%412,869
Montour3,05338.85%4,65259.19%961.22%300.38%280.36%-1,599-20.34%7,859
Northampton67,60651.59%61,44646.89%1,1880.91%4950.38%3090.24%6,1604.70%131,044
Northumberland13,07239.19%19,51858.51%4221.27%2000.60%1440.43%-6,446-19.32%33,356
Perry5,68529.59%13,12068.28%2381.24%850.44%870.45%-7,435-38.69%19,215
Philadelphia588,80685.24%96,46713.97%2,8920.42%2,1620.31%4490.06%492,33971.27%690,776
Pike10,21043.86%12,78654.93%1940.83%890.38%00.00%-2,576-11.07%23,279
Potter1,89726.06%5,23171.86%781.07%360.49%370.51%-3,334-45.80%7,279
Schuylkill24,54642.29%32,27855.61%6171.06%2860.49%3210.55%-7,732-13.32%58,048
Snyder4,68731.11%10,07366.85%1801.19%620.41%660.44%-5,386-35.74%15,068
Somerset9,43627.69%23,98470.38%3340.98%1880.55%1360.40%-14,548-42.69%34,078
Sullivan1,03435.06%1,86863.34%301.02%170.58%00.00%-834-28.28%2,949
Susquehanna6,93538.28%10,80059.62%2021.12%1070.59%720.40%-3,865-21.34%18,116
Tioga5,35731.34%11,34266.35%1951.14%1100.64%900.53%-5,985-35.01%17,094
Union6,10937.39%9,89660.57%1841.13%790.48%690.42%-3,787-23.18%16,337
Venango7,94535.70%13,81562.07%2991.34%1080.49%900.40%-5,870-26.37%22,257
Warren6,99540.44%10,01057.86%2051.19%890.51%00.00%-3,015-17.42%17,299
Washington40,34542.48%53,23056.04%8540.90%3210.34%2280.24%-12,885-13.56%94,978
Wayne8,39638.74%12,89659.50%1950.90%1200.55%670.31%-4,500-20.76%21,674
Westmoreland63,72237.58%103,93261.29%1,4260.84%4920.29%00.00%-40,210-23.71%169,572
Wyoming5,06142.45%6,58755.26%1521.28%720.60%490.42%-1,526-12.81%11,921
York73,19138.52%113,30459.63%1,9851.04%7490.39%7760.41%-40,113-21.11%190,005
Totals2,990,27451.95%2,680,43446.57%49,9910.87%21,3410.37%13,5800.24%309,8405.38%5,755,620
County Flips:

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican edit

By congressional district edit

Despite losing the state overall, Romney won 13 of the 18 congressional districts.

DistrictRomneyObamaRepresentative
1st16.89%82.26%Bob Brady
2nd8.95%90.41%Chaka Fattah
3rd55.60%43.05%Mike Kelly
4th57.07%41.51%Jason Altmire
Scott Perry
5th56.95%41.35%Glenn Thompson
6th50.57%48.12%Jim Gerlach
7th50.36%48.53%Pat Meehan
8th49.42%49.35%Mike Fitzpatrick
9th62.82%35.87%Bill Shuster
10th60.11%38.46%Tom Marino
11th53.90%44.57%Lou Barletta
12th57.81%40.94%Mark Critz
Keith Rothfus
13th32.91%66.17%Allyson Schwartz
14th30.64%67.99%Mike Doyle
15th50.78%47.87%Charlie Dent
16th52.35%46.25%Joe Pitts
17th43.26%55.38%Tim Holden
Matt Cartwright
18th57.95%40.99%Tim Murphy

See also edit

References edit

  1. ^ a b c d e "2012 General Primary". Pennsylvania Department of State. 2012. Archived from the original on April 28, 2012. Retrieved October 18, 2012.
  2. ^ O'Neill, Brian (October 16, 2011). "Don't let Pa. flunk out of the Electoral College". Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. p. A-2.
  3. ^ a b McNulty, Timothy (September 8, 2012). "Romney campaign not expected to invest much in Pa". Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. p. A-1.
  4. ^ a b c "2012 General Primary". Pennsylvania Department of State. 2012. Archived from the original on January 19, 2013. Retrieved November 15, 2012.
  5. ^ a b Electoral-vote.com labeled Pennsylvania "likely Democratic". Tanenbaum, Andrew S. "Electoral-vote.com". Retrieved October 17, 2012.
    The Washington Post labeled Pennsylvania "lean Democratic". "2012 Election Map: The race for the presidency". The Washington Post. Retrieved October 17, 2012.
    CNN labeled Pennsylvania "leaning Obama". Dengo, Sophia; Perry, Bryan; Hayes, John; John, Joel; Slaton, A.D. "CNN Electoral Map". CNN Politics. CNN. Retrieved October 17, 2012.
    The Cook Political Report labeled Pennsylvania "lean Democratic". "Presidential: Maps". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 17, 2012.
  6. ^ Woodall, Candy. "Joe Biden wins Pennsylvania: Here's how he reclaimed his home state and the 'blue wall'". USA TODAY. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  7. ^ "Pennsylvania Election Results 2016". The New York Times. September 13, 2017. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  8. ^ "Pennsylvania Election Results". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  9. ^ a b "2012 General Primary Write-in Totals" (PDF). Pennsylvania Department of State. 2012. Archived (PDF) from the original on March 4, 2016. Retrieved October 18, 2012.
  10. ^ a b c "2012 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions: Pennsylvania Democrat". The Green Papers. 2012. Retrieved October 18, 2012.
  11. ^ a b Fitzgerald, Thomas; Worden, Amy (April 6, 2012). "Santorum meets with conservatives as Romney, in Pa., looks to the fall". The Philadelphia Inquirer. p. A1.
  12. ^ "Santorum Taking Four-Day Break from Campaign Trail". Fox Television Stations, Inc. April 4, 2012.
  13. ^ "Santorum Cancels Monday Events to Be With Ill Child". The Wall Street Journal. April 7, 2012.
  14. ^ Walshe, Shushannah (May 7, 2012). "Rick Santorum Formally Endorses Mitt Romney". The Note. ABC News. Retrieved October 24, 2012.
  15. ^ Camia, Catalina (August 24, 2012). "Santorum releases GOP convention delegates". USA Today. Retrieved October 24, 2012.
  16. ^ "Primaries & Caucuses: Results: Pennsylvania". CNN Politics. CNN. July 30, 2012. Retrieved October 20, 2012.
  17. ^ When Pennsylvania delegation chair Tom Corbett announced the Pennsylvania delegates' votes on the convention floor, he said that sixty-seven delegates had voted for Romney and five had voted for Paul Ryan. However, since Ryan was not a candidate (rather, he was Romney's running mate), it is generally assumed that Corbett misspoke—that the five votes were actually for Ron Paul.
  18. ^ "Pennsylvania: Romney vs. Obama". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 17, 2012.
  19. ^ Silver, Nate. "FiveThirtyEight". The New York Times. Retrieved November 8, 2012.
  20. ^ "2012 Presidential Election Polls - PA". US Election Atlas.
  21. ^ a b c d Levy, Marc (October 30, 2012). "Romney, Obama campaigns resume Pa. ad campaigns". Philly.com. Associated Press. Archived from the original on November 3, 2012. Retrieved November 2, 2012.
  22. ^ a b c Levy, Marc (November 1, 2012). "Romney, RNC splashing down in Pa. in 11th-hour bid". Deseret News. Associated Press. Archived from the original on March 30, 2014. Retrieved November 2, 2012.
  23. ^ "Pennsylvania Elections – County Breakdown Results". electionreturns.pa.gov. November 6, 2012. Retrieved December 28, 2019.

External links edit