2016 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania

The 2016 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania took place on November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States elections in which all 50 states and the District of Columbia participated. Pennsylvania voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote.

2016 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania

← 2012November 8, 20162020 →
 
NomineeDonald TrumpHillary Clinton
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Home stateNew YorkNew York
Running mateMike PenceTim Kaine
Electoral vote200
Popular vote2,970,7332,926,441
Percentage48.18%47.46%


President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Treemap of the popular vote by county.

On April 26, 2016, in the presidential primaries, voters selected the Democratic, Republican, and Green parties' respective nominees for president. Pennsylvania is a closed primary state, meaning voters must have been previously registered with a particular political party in order to vote for one of that parties' candidates, to participate in their respective party primary.[1]

In the general election, Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, won Pennsylvania by 44,292 votes out of more than 6 million cast, a margin of 0.72% and the narrowest margin in a presidential election since 1840, when William Henry Harrison defeated Martin Van Buren by just 0.12%. Pennsylvania voted 2.82% more Republican than the nation-at-large, marking the first time since 1948 that Pennsylvania voted to the right of the nation.

Prior to the election, Pennsylvania was expected to be close as polling showed the results within the margin of error, but many election experts viewed that Clinton had an edge.[2][3] However, on Election Day, Pennsylvania unexpectedly swung to Donald Trump. Trump carried 56 of the state's 67 counties, predominantly rural or suburban counties, while Clinton carried much of the Philadelphia metropolitan area as well as other cities including Pittsburgh, Harrisburg and Scranton. Nonetheless, some areas of traditional Democratic strength such as Luzerne County, where Wilkes-Barre is located, saw swings in margins of up to 25% toward Donald Trump, making him the first Republican nominee for president to win Pennsylvania since George H. W. Bush in 1988.

Primaries edit

Democratic primary edit

Results of the Democratic primary by county.
  Hillary Clinton
  Bernie Sanders
Pennsylvania Democratic primary, April 26, 2016
CandidatePopular voteEstimated delegates
CountPercentagePledgedUnpledgedTotal
Hillary Clinton935,10755.61%10620126
Bernie Sanders731,88143.53%83083
Rocky De La Fuente14,4390.86%000
Total1,681,427100%18920209
Source: The Green Papers, Pennsylvania State Elections Official Results

Republican primary edit

Republican primary results by county.
  Donald Trump
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
Pennsylvania Republican primary, April 26, 2016
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Donald Trump902,59356.61%174259
Ted Cruz345,50621.67%044
John Kasich310,00319.44%033
Ben Carson (withdrawn)14,8420.93%000
Marco Rubio (withdrawn)11,9540.75%000
Jeb Bush (withdrawn)9,5770.60%000
Unprojected delegates:055
Total:1,594,475100.00%175471
Source: The Green Papers

Green Party edit

Pennsylvania held a series of caucuses throughout April, culminating with a meeting on April 30 in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, where delegates were assigned.[4][5]

Pennsylvania Green Party presidential caucuses, April 17, 2016
CandidateVotesPercentageNational delegates
Jill Stein--8
William Kreml--1
Sedinam Kinamo Christin Moyowasifza Curry---
Darryl Cherney---
Kent Mesplay---
Total-100.00%9

Democratic National Convention edit

From July 25 to July 28, 2016, Philadelphia hosted the 2016 Democratic National Convention. It was held at the Wells Fargo Center with ancillary meetings at the Pennsylvania Convention Center. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was chosen as the party's nominee for president by a 59.67% majority of delegates present at the convention roll call and then winning the nomination. While runner-up rival Senator Bernie Sanders received 39.16% of votes from delegates. Clinton becoming the first female candidate to be formally nominated by a major national party as a presidential candidate in the United States. Her running mate, Senator Tim Kaine, the junior United States senator from Virginia was chosen by delegates as the party's nominee for vice president by acclamation.

General election edit

Predictions edit

SourceRankingAs of
CNN[6]Lean DNovember 4, 2016
Cook Political Report[7]Lean DNovember 7, 2016
Electoral-vote.com[8]Lean DNovember 6, 2016
NBC[9]Lean DNovember 7, 2016
RealClearPolitics[10]TossupNovember 6, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[11]Lean DNovember 7, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[12]Lean DNovember 7, 2016

Statewide results edit

2016 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania[13]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican 2,970,733 48.18
Democratic2,926,44147.46
Libertarian146,7152.38
Green49,9410.81
Constitution
21,5720.35
Independent6,4720.10
IndependentBernie Sanders (write-in)6,0600.10
RepublicanJohn Kasich (write-in)3020.00
Independent
30.00
Write-in37,2390.60
Total votes6,165,478 100%
Republican win

By congressional district edit

Trump won 12 of 18 congressional districts, including one which elected a Democrat, while Clinton won 6 including two that elected a Republican.[15]

DistrictTrumpClintonRepresentative
118%80%Bob Brady
28%90%Chaka Fattah
Dwight Evans
361%35%Mike Kelly
459%37%Scott Perry
562%34%Glenn Thompson
648%48%Ryan Costello
747%49%Patrick Meehan
848%48%Mike Fitzpatrick
Brian Fitzpatrick
970%27%Bill Shuster
1066%30%Tom Marino
1160%36%Lou Barletta
1259%38%Keith Rothfus
1332%65%Brendan Boyle
1431%66%Mike Doyle
1552%44%Charlie Dent
1651%44%Joe Pitts
Lloyd Smucker
1753%43%Matt Cartwright
1858%39%Tim Murphy

By county edit

County[16]Donald Trump
Republican
Hillary Clinton
Democratic
Gary Johnson
Libertarian
Jill Stein
Green
Darrell Castle
Constitution
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal votes cast
#%#%#%#%#%#%#%
Adams31,42365.48%14,21929.63%1,2512.61%4050.84%1910.40%5011.04%17,20435.85%47,990
Allegheny259,48039.48%367,61755.94%16,1022.45%5,0970.78%1,8180.28%7,0751.08%-108,137-16.46%657,189
Armstrong23,48473.70%7,17822.53%6852.15%1410.44%1300.41%2460.77%16,30651.17%31,864
Beaver48,16757.03%32,53138.52%2,0222.39%4960.59%3550.42%8911.05%15,63618.51%84,462
Bedford19,55282.59%3,64515.40%2601.10%1020.43%780.33%380.16%15,90767.19%23,675
Berks96,62652.49%78,43742.61%5,2472.85%1,9741.07%7810.42%1,0200.55%18,1899.88%184,085
Blair39,13570.72%13,95825.22%1,2562.27%3380.61%2220.40%4320.79%25,17745.50%55,341
Bradford18,14169.81%6,36924.51%8933.44%1370.53%1680.65%2781.07%11,77245.30%25,986
Bucks164,36147.64%167,06048.42%8,5562.48%3,1210.90%1,1990.35%7450.22%-2,699-0.78%345,042
Butler64,43165.71%28,58629.15%3,0643.12%6150.63%3820.39%9730.99%35,84536.56%98,051
Cambria42,25866.45%18,86729.67%1,2702.00%4130.65%2640.42%5170.81%23,39136.78%63,589
Cameron1,58971.90%53124.03%532.40%60.27%70.32%241.09%1,05847.87%2,210
Carbon18,74364.65%8,93630.82%6912.38%2650.91%1410.49%2170.75%9,80733.83%28,993
Centre35,27445.63%37,08847.97%2,6443.42%7981.03%3440.44%1,1590.94%-1,814-2.34%77,307
Chester116,11442.53%141,68251.90%7,9302.90%2,2470.82%8270.30%4,1981.54%-25,568-9.37%272,998
Clarion12,57671.21%4,27324.20%4692.66%1150.65%1020.58%1250.71%8,30347.01%17,660
Clearfield24,93272.16%8,20023.73%7762.25%2200.64%1430.41%2790.81%16,73248.43%34,550
Clinton10,02264.64%4,74430.60%4703.03%1210.78%370.24%1110.71%5,27834.04%15,505
Columbia18,00463.16%8,93431.34%8833.10%2650.93%1420.50%2780.97%9,07031.82%28,506
Crawford24,98766.08%10,97129.01%1,0462.77%2710.72%2170.57%3210.85%14,01637.07%37,813
Cumberland69,07655.94%47,08538.13%3,9753.22%9390.76%5420.44%1,8691.51%21,99117.81%123,486
Dauphin60,86346.18%64,70649.10%3,4982.65%1,1770.89%6280.48%9110.69%-3,843-2.92%131,783
Delaware110,66736.97%177,40259.27%5,9922.00%2,5880.86%9850.33%1,7020.57%-66,735-22.30%299,336
Elk10,02568.91%3,85326.49%4012.76%790.54%680.47%1210.83%6,17242.42%14,547
Erie60,06948.01%58,11246.44%3,8713.09%1,1390.91%4880.39%1,4501.16%1,9571.57%125,129
Fayette34,59063.94%17,94633.17%8531.58%2320.43%1460.27%3320.61%16,64430.77%54,099
Forest1,68469.59%62625.87%602.48%190.79%130.54%180.74%1,05843.72%2,420
Franklin49,76870.59%17,46524.77%1,7122.43%4500.64%3360.48%7751.10%32,30345.82%70,506
Fulton5,69483.47%91213.37%931.36%370.54%350.51%510.75%4,78270.10%6,822
Greene10,84968.37%4,48228.25%2841.79%830.52%660.42%1040.66%6,36740.12%15,868
Huntingdon14,49472.96%4,53922.85%4252.14%960.48%1520.77%1600.81%9,95550.11%19,866
Indiana24,88865.29%11,52830.24%9362.46%2200.58%1980.52%3520.92%13,36035.05%38,122
Jefferson15,19277.53%3,65018.63%4322.20%1100.56%940.48%1170.60%11,54258.90%19,595
Juniata8,27378.45%1,82117.27%2011.91%710.67%880.83%910.86%6,45261.18%10,545
Lackawanna48,38446.34%51,98349.79%1,9351.85%8960.86%2580.25%9480.91%-3,599-3.45%104,404
Lancaster137,91456.33%91,09337.21%8,5553.49%2,0210.83%1,5290.62%3,7201.52%46,82119.12%244,832
Lawrence25,42861.90%14,00934.11%8702.12%2480.60%1980.48%3230.79%11,41927.79%41,076
Lebanon40,52564.84%18,95330.32%1,6472.64%4220.68%2980.48%6581.05%21,57234.52%62,503
Lehigh73,69045.28%81,32449.97%4,0272.47%1,4020.86%5500.34%1,7401.07%-7,634-4.69%162,733
Luzerne78,68857.90%52,45138.60%2,3391.72%1,1780.87%3270.24%9180.68%26,23719.30%135,901
Lycoming35,62769.68%13,02025.46%1,3112.56%3840.75%2230.44%5661.11%22,60744.22%51,131
McKean11,63570.67%4,02524.45%4082.48%1510.92%770.47%1681.02%7,61046.22%16,464
Mercer31,54459.70%18,73335.45%1,3702.59%4150.79%2470.47%5301.00%12,81124.25%52,839
Mifflin14,09475.28%3,87720.71%4762.54%800.43%740.40%1200.64%10,21754.57%18,721
Monroe33,38647.69%33,91848.45%1,5022.15%7581.08%1880.27%2560.36%-532-0.76%70,008
Montgomery162,73137.10%256,08258.38%10,9342.49%3,7040.84%1,2360.28%3,9650.90%-93,351-21.28%438,652
Montour5,28861.80%2,85733.39%2873.35%730.85%510.60%00.00%2,43128.41%8,556
Northampton71,73649.62%66,27545.84%3,6902.55%1,3710.95%4500.31%1,0470.72%5,4613.78%144,569
Northumberland25,42768.89%9,78826.52%9312.52%2960.80%1800.49%2850.77%15,63942.37%36,907
Perry15,61673.07%4,63221.67%6192.90%1630.76%1280.60%2131.00%10,98451.40%21,371
Philadelphia108,74815.32%584,02582.30%7,1151.00%6,6790.94%1,0640.15%1,9870.28%-475,277-66.98%709,618
Pike16,06161.06%9,26835.24%4941.88%2260.86%710.27%1830.70%6,79325.82%26,303
Potter6,25179.49%1,30216.56%1652.10%350.45%310.39%801.01%4,94962.93%7,864
Schuylkill44,00169.42%16,77026.46%1,4142.23%4490.71%2350.37%5160.81%27,23142.96%63,385
Snyder11,72571.12%4,00224.28%4552.76%1110.67%700.42%1230.75%7,72346.84%16,486
Somerset27,37975.90%7,37620.45%6781.88%1660.46%1740.48%3000.83%20,00355.45%36,073
Sullivan2,29172.68%75023.79%652.06%140.44%160.51%160.51%1,54148.89%3,152
Susquehanna12,89167.69%5,12326.90%5682.98%1921.01%890.47%1800.95%7,76840.79%19,043
Tioga13,61473.56%3,90121.08%5482.96%1390.75%1230.66%1820.98%9,71352.48%18,507
Union10,62260.02%6,18034.92%4502.54%1430.81%730.41%2281.29%4,44225.43%17,696
Venango16,02168.09%6,30926.81%7333.12%1490.63%1360.58%1820.77%9,71241.28%23,530
Warren12,47767.06%5,14527.65%5492.95%1300.70%1330.71%1720.92%7,33239.41%18,606
Washington61,38660.03%36,32235.52%2,6432.58%7330.72%3660.36%8170.80%25,06424.51%102,267
Wayne16,24467.63%7,00829.18%4661.94%2060.86%940.39%00.00%9,23638.45%24,018
Westmoreland116,52263.50%59,66932.52%4,3672.38%9360.51%5570.30%1,4410.79%56,85330.98%183,492
Wyoming8,83766.63%3,81128.74%3232.44%1160.87%570.43%1180.89%5,02637.89%13,262
York128,52861.78%68,52432.94%6,4843.12%1,5680.75%8820.42%2,0430.98%60,00428.84%208,029
Totals2,970,74248.17%2,926,45847.45%146,7192.38%49,9410.81%21,5720.35%51,5060.83%44,2840.72%6,166,938

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican edit

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic edit

Analysis edit

2016 would also be the first presidential election since 1948 in which the Democratic nominee won the popular vote without the state. Pennsylvania's vote for Donald Trump, along with that of Wisconsin and Michigan, marked the fall of the Democratic Blue Wall, a bloc of over 240 electoral votes that voted solidly Democratic from 1992 to 2012. Pennsylvania was one of the eleven states to have voted twice for Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996 which Hillary Clinton lost in 2016. Although Wisconsin eventually delivered the Trump victory, when the Clinton campaign learned that they had lost Pennsylvania, they then knew that they had lost the election.[17] Trump became the first Republican ever to win the White House without carrying Chester or Dauphin Counties, as well as the first to do so without carrying Centre County since Benjamin Harrison in 1888, and the first to do so without carrying Monroe County since Calvin Coolidge in 1924. He also became the first Republican to win Pennsylvania without carrying any of Philadelphia's suburban counties.

See also edit

References edit

  1. ^ "About Voting and Elections". Votespa.com. May 19, 2015. Archived from the original on April 8, 2016. Retrieved April 10, 2016.
  2. ^ "Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein". realclearpolitics.com. November 5, 2016.
  3. ^ "Clinton Has Solid Lead in Electoral College; Trump's Winning Map Is Unclear". The New York Times. November 6, 2016. Retrieved October 30, 2018. The final nonpartisan live interview polls there show Mrs. Clinton ahead by a comfortable margin of four to six points. The state will probably be close, but it's quite clear that she has the edge.
  4. ^ "2016 PA Green Party Caucus Information and Schedule". Pennsylvania Green Party. April 9, 2016. Retrieved April 10, 2016.
  5. ^ "#Greens, join us in caucusing and voting for our GP of PA Presidential Candidates in April". Pennsylvania Green Party. April 9, 2016. Retrieved April 10, 2016.
  6. ^ Chalian, David (November 4, 2016). "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". CNN. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  7. ^ "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report. November 7, 2016. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  8. ^ "2016 Predicted Electoral Map". Electoral-vote.com. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  9. ^ Todd, Chuck (November 7, 2016). "NBC's final battleground map shows a lead for Clinton". NBC News. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  10. ^ "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  11. ^ "Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
  12. ^ Sabato, Larry (November 7, 2016). "The Crystal Ball's 2016 Electoral College ratings". University of Virginia Center for Politics. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  13. ^ Federal Election Commission (December 2017). "Federal Elections 2016" (PDF). p. 39. Retrieved November 13, 2021.
  14. ^ "Kathleen Monahan". Ballotpedia. Retrieved November 13, 2021.
  15. ^ "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index". The Cook Political Report.
  16. ^ "2016 Presidential General Election Results - Pennsylvania".
  17. ^ Burstein, Nanette (Director) (March 6, 2020). Episode 4 - Be Our Champion, Go Away (Documentary). Hillary. Hulu.

Further reading edit

External links edit