The 2020 United States presidential election in Rhode Island was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] Rhode Island voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Rhode Island has four electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]
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Rhode Island became one of three states where Biden won every county during the election, the other two being Massachusetts and Hawaii.
Rhode Island voted 17% more Democratic than the national average.
Primary elections
editThe primary elections were originally scheduled for April 28, 2020. On March 23, they were moved to June 2 due to concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic.[3]
Republican primary
editDonald Trump won the Republican primary, and received all of the state's 19 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[4]
Democratic primary
edit| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates[6] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 79,728 | 76.67 | 25 |
| Bernie Sanders (withdrawn) | 15,525 | 14.93 | 1 |
| Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) | 4,479 | 4.31 | |
| Andrew Yang (withdrawn) | 802 | 0.77 | |
| Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn) | 651 | 0.63 | |
| Write-in votes | 936 | 0.90 | |
| Uncommitted | 1,861 | 1.79 | |
| Total | 103,982 | 100% | 26 |
General election
editPredictions
edit| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[7] | Safe D | September 10, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[8] | Safe D | September 4, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[9] | Safe D | July 14, 2020 |
| Politico[10] | Safe D | September 8, 2020 |
| RCP[11] | Safe D | August 3, 2020 |
| Niskanen[12] | Likely D | July 26, 2020 |
| CNN[13] | Safe D | August 3, 2020 |
| The Economist[14] | Safe D | September 2, 2020 |
| CBS News[15] | Likely D | August 16, 2020 |
| 270towin[16] | Safe D | August 2, 2020 |
| ABC News[17] | Safe D | July 31, 2020 |
| NPR[18] | Likely D | August 3, 2020 |
| NBC News[19] | Likely D | August 6, 2020 |
| 538[20] | Safe D | September 9, 2020 |
Polling
editGraphical summary
editGraphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Aggregate polls
edit| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Joe Biden Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Other/ Undecided [a] | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FiveThirtyEight | until November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 62.9% | 32.4% | 4.7% | Biden +30.6 |
Polls
edit| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Jo Jorgensen Libertarian | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 | 566 (LV) | ± 5.5% | 36%[c] | 62% | - | – | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Oct 1–28, 2020 | 910 (LV) | – | 32% | 67% | - | – | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Sep 1–30, 2020 | 351 (LV) | – | 37% | 62% | - | – | 0% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Aug 1–31, 2020 | 208 (LV) | – | 41% | 57% | - | – | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Jul 1–31, 2020 | 253 (LV) | – | 39% | 60% | - | – | 1% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Jun 8–30, 2020 | 176 (LV) | – | 40% | 60% | - | – | 1% |
Results
edit| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Joe Biden Kamala Harris | 307,486 | 59.38% | +4.97% | |
| Republican | Donald Trump (incumbent) Mike Pence (incumbent) | 199,922 | 38.61% | -0.29% | |
| Libertarian | Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen | 5,053 | 0.98% | -2.20% | |
| Write-in | TBA | 2,759 | 0.53% | -1.50% | |
| Alliance | Rocky De La Fuente Darcy Richardson | 923 | 0.18% | +0.04% | |
| Socialism and Liberation | Gloria La Riva Sunil Freeman | 847 | 0.16% | N/A | |
| American Solidarity | Brian Carroll Amar Patel | 767 | 0.15% | N/A | |
| Total votes | 517,757 | 100.00% | |||
Results by county
edit| County | Joe Biden Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Various candidates Other parties | Margin | Total votes cast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Bristol | 18,050 | 63.52% | 9,745 | 34.30% | 620 | 2.18% | 8,305 | 29.22% | 28,415 |
| Kent | 49,113 | 52.76% | 42,001 | 45.12% | 1,979 | 2.12% | 7,112 | 7.64% | 93,093 |
| Newport | 29,486 | 63.89% | 15,722 | 34.07% | 940 | 2.04% | 13,764 | 29.82% | 46,148 |
| Providence | 165,012 | 60.52% | 102,551 | 37.61% | 5,104 | 1.87% | 62,461 | 22.91% | 272,667 |
| Washington | 44,549 | 58.57% | 29,818 | 39.20% | 1,693 | 2.23% | 14,731 | 19.37% | 76,060 |
| Totals | 307,486 | 59.39% | 199,922 | 38.61% | 10,349 | 2.00% | 107,564 | 20.78% | 517,757 |
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
editResults by municipality
edit| Municipality | Joe Biden | Donald Trump | Jo Jorgensen | Other | Margin | Total votes cast | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Barrington | 7,713 | 71.2% | 2,889 | 26.7% | 113 | 1.0% | 117 | 1.0% | 4,824 | 44.5% | 10,832 |
| Bristol | 6,813 | 58.4% | 4,595 | 39.4% | 139 | 1.2% | 110 | 0.9% | 2,218 | 19.0% | 11,657 |
| Burrillville | 3,434 | 40.2% | 4,906 | 57.5% | 126 | 1.5% | 72 | 0.9% | -1,472 | -17.3% | 8,538 |
| Central Falls | 3,073 | 71.9% | 1,113 | 26.1% | 25 | 0.6% | 61 | 1.4% | 1,960 | 45.8% | 4,272 |
| Charlestown | 2,909 | 55.7% | 2,198 | 42.1% | 64 | 1.2% | 49 | 1.0% | 711 | 13.6% | 5,220 |
| Coventry | 9,123 | 45.6% | 10,461 | 52.3% | 232 | 1.2% | 188 | 0.9% | -1,338 | -6.7% | 20,004 |
| Cranston | 23,039 | 56.1% | 17,313 | 42.2% | 311 | 0.8% | 390 | 1.0% | 5,726 | 13.9% | 41,053 |
| Cumberland | 10,869 | 55.2% | 8,418 | 42.8% | 206 | 1.0% | 185 | 0.9% | 2,451 | 12.4% | 19,678 |
| East Greenwich | 5,218 | 60.3% | 3,227 | 37.3% | 104 | 1.2% | 98 | 1.1% | 1,991 | 23.0% | 8,647 |
| East Providence | 14,735 | 63.6% | 7,930 | 34.3% | 204 | 0.9% | 284 | 1.3% | 6,805 | 29.3% | 23,153 |
| Exeter | 1,974 | 48.4% | 2,009 | 49.2% | 55 | 1.3% | 44 | 1.1% | -35 | -0.8% | 4,082 |
| Foster | 1,224 | 42.7% | 1,582 | 55.2% | 34 | 1.2% | 25 | 0.8% | -358 | -12.5% | 2,865 |
| Glocester | 2,638 | 43.2% | 3,351 | 54.8% | 62 | 1.0% | 62 | 1.0% | -713 | -11.6% | 6,113 |
| Hopkinton | 2,298 | 47.4% | 2,423 | 50.0% | 74 | 1.5% | 51 | 1.0% | -125 | -2.6% | 4,846 |
| Jamestown | 2,795 | 68.4% | 1,212 | 29.7% | 44 | 1.1% | 33 | 0.8% | 1,583 | 38.7% | 4,084 |
| Johnston | 6,838 | 44.8% | 8,222 | 53.9% | 88 | 0.6% | 115 | 0.8% | -1,384 | -9.1% | 15,263 |
| Lincoln | 6,633 | 52.3% | 5,779 | 45.6% | 130 | 1.0% | 129 | 1.0% | 854 | 6.7% | 12,671 |
| Little Compton | 1,524 | 60.1% | 951 | 37.5% | 28 | 1.1% | 32 | 1.2% | 573 | 22.6% | 2,535 |
| Middletown | 5,529 | 64.2% | 2,885 | 33.5% | 115 | 1.3% | 79 | 0.9% | 2,644 | 30.7% | 8,608 |
| Narragansett | 5,333 | 59.1% | 3,551 | 39.3% | 56 | 0.6% | 90 | 1.1% | 1,782 | 19.8% | 9,030 |
| New Shoreham | 748 | 78.3% | 195 | 20.4% | 4 | 0.4% | 8 | 0.8% | 553 | 57.9% | 955 |
| Newport | 7,866 | 73.4% | 2,662 | 24.9% | 85 | 0.8% | 99 | 0.9% | 5,204 | 48.5% | 10,712 |
| North Kingstown | 10,534 | 59.9% | 6,633 | 37.7% | 203 | 1.2% | 207 | 1.2% | 3,901 | 22.2% | 17,577 |
| North Providence | 9,438 | 56.0% | 7,129 | 42.3% | 145 | 0.9% | 139 | 0.8% | 2,309 | 13.7% | 16,851 |
| North Smithfield | 3,507 | 48.7% | 3,550 | 49.3% | 85 | 1.2% | 64 | 0.9% | -43 | -0.6% | 7,206 |
| Pawtucket | 18,053 | 70.0% | 7,257 | 28.1% | 188 | 0.7% | 290 | 1.2% | 10,796 | 41.9% | 25,788 |
| Portsmouth | 6,649 | 60.9% | 3,995 | 36.6% | 148 | 1.4% | 125 | 1.1% | 2,654 | 24.3% | 10,917 |
| Providence | 45,941 | 80.4% | 10,186 | 17.8% | 346 | 0.6% | 694 | 1.2% | 35,755 | 62.6% | 57,167 |
| Richmond | 2,346 | 48.8% | 2,343 | 48.7% | 66 | 1.4% | 53 | 1.1% | 3 | 0.1% | 4,808 |
| Scituate | 2,735 | 40.9% | 3,806 | 57.0% | 69 | 1.0% | 73 | 1.1% | -1,071 | -16.1% | 6,683 |
| Smithfield | 5,566 | 48.3% | 5,744 | 49.8% | 118 | 1.0% | 100 | 0.9% | -178 | -1.5% | 11,528 |
| South Kingstown | 11,254 | 67.4% | 5,003 | 30.0% | 212 | 1.3% | 219 | 1.3% | 6,251 | 37.4% | 16,688 |
| Tiverton | 5,123 | 55.1% | 4,017 | 43.2% | 84 | 0.9% | 68 | 0.7% | 1,106 | 11.9% | 9,292 |
| Warren | 3,524 | 59.5% | 2,261 | 38.2% | 74 | 1.2% | 67 | 1.1% | 1,263 | 21.3% | 5,926 |
| Warwick | 25,845 | 55.7% | 19,578 | 42.2% | 545 | 1.2% | 473 | 1.0% | 6,267 | 13.5% | 46,441 |
| West Greenwich | 1,693 | 42.3% | 2,242 | 56.0% | 41 | 1.0% | 24 | 0.6% | -549 | -13.7% | 4,000 |
| West Warwick | 7,234 | 51.7% | 6,493 | 46.4% | 143 | 1.0% | 131 | 0.9% | 741 | 5.3% | 14,001 |
| Westerly | 7,153 | 55.6% | 5,463 | 42.5% | 127 | 1.0% | 111 | 0.8% | 1,690 | 13.1% | 12,854 |
| Woonsocket | 7,289 | 52.7% | 6,265 | 45.3% | 154 | 1.1% | 130 | 0.9% | 1,024 | 7.4% | 13,838 |
| Totals | 307,486 | 59.4% | 199,922 | 38.6% | 5,053 | 1.0% | 5,296 | 1.0% | 107,564 | 20.8% | 517,757 |
By congressional district
editBiden won both congressional districts.
| District | Trump | Biden | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 34.6% | 63.9% | David Cicilline |
| 2nd | 42.5% | 56% | James Langevin |
Analysis
editBiden flipped the reliably Democratic Kent County back into the Democratic column, after Trump narrowly flipped it in 2016. Of the fourteen towns that voted for Trump in 2016, Biden flipped back three: Lincoln, Richmond, and West Warwick. Overall, Biden won Rhode Island by 20.8 points, improving on Clinton's 15.5 point win. Rhode Island is the only state in which neither Biden nor Trump broke the all-time Democrat or all-time Republican record for most votes earned in a general election (Lyndon B. Johnson and Dwight D. Eisenhower).
Biden's best towns were Rhode Island's wealthiest (such as Barrington, Jamestown, and East Greenwich) and poorest (such as heavily Latino Central Falls). Trump performed best with middle-income voters. This strength allowed Trump to hold formerly Democratic towns like Johnston, which is largely Catholic and middle-class.[22] According to a post-election voter survey conducted by the Associated Press, Trump carried Catholic voters, 51% to 49%.[23]
Biden became the first Democrat since 1912 to win without the towns of Burrillville and North Smithfield, the first since 1916 to win without Johnston and Smithfield, and the first since 1936 to win without Coventry. Biden flipped the municipalities of Lincoln, Richmond, and West Warwick.
See also
editNotes
editReferences
edit- ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- ^ "Rhode Island is the latest state to postpone its 2020 primary as coronavirus outbreak spreads". CNBC. March 23, 2020.
- ^ "Rhode Island Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Presidential Preference Primary". State of Rhode Island Board of Elections. July 3, 2020. Retrieved October 14, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions: Rhode Island Democrat". The Green Papers. Retrieved July 8, 2020.
- ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
- ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
- ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
- ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
- ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
- ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
- ^ Montanaro, Domenico (August 3, 2020). "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
- ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. August 6, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
- ^ "2020 General Election Statewide summary". State of Rhode Island Board of Elections. Retrieved November 30, 2020.
- ^ Patinkin, Mark. "Patinkin: Why Democratic Johnston voted for Trump, and probably will again". The Providence Journal. Retrieved November 2, 2022.
- ^ "Rhode Island Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 2, 2022.
External links
edit- Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Rhode Island", Voting & Elections Toolkits
- "Rhode Island: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
- "League of Women Voters of Rhode Island". (state affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
- Rhode Island at Ballotpedia