User:Eating Glass Is Bad/sandbox

In order to have a majority, the Republicans must hold at least 51 seats in the Senate. The Democrats can retain a majority with 48 seats (assuming the two Independents continue to caucus with them) because, in event of a tie vote, the Vice President, Democrat Joe Biden, can make the tie-breaking vote. Control of the U.S. Senate has flipped in 10 of 50 cycles from 1914 to 2012, or 20 percent of the time.^[1]

Republicans are seeking to win six or more seats necessary to take control of the Senate, while Democrats hope to retain and gain seats in the Senate. After losing ground in the 2012 elections, an internal fight broke out among the Republican leadership in early 2013 over the best strategy and tactics for the 2014 Senate races.^[2] By December 2013, eight of the twelve incumbent Republicans running for re-election saw Tea Party challenges.^[3] However, Republican incumbents won every primary challenge.^[4] The combination of Democratic retirements and numerous seats up for election in swing states and red states gave Republicans hopes of taking control of the Senate, although Democrats saw opportunities for pickups as well.^[5] Based on the two-party presidential vote in the most recent election, the 2014 election is the most "unrepresentative" of the nation since World War II, with Republicans holding significantly more strength in the states with elections than with the country as a whole.^[6] In order to take control of the Senate, Republicans may have to defeat more than two incumbent Democrats, a task the party has not accomplished since 1980.^[7] In the final months of the race, polls showed two independent candidates with viable chances of winning seats in the Senate, leading some analysts to speculate on the possibility of an "independent caucus" that could also include Maine Senator Angus King and possibly Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders.^[8][9]

Poll aggregation website FiveThirtyEight gave the Republican Party a 60% chance of taking control of the Senate as of September 28.^[10] Another poll agregation website, RealClearPolitics, gives the Republican Party a net gain of 7 seats.^[11] Due to the closeness of several races, Senate control may not be decided on election night.^[12] Louisiana and Georgia both have competitive Senate races, and both states require run-off elections if no candidate takes a majority of the vote. Additionally, two independent candidates with significant chances of victory, Greg Orman in Kansas and Larry Pressler^[13] in South Dakota, have refused to commit to caucusing with either party.^[12] Independent Senator Angus King has left open the possibility of caucusing with the Republican Party after caucusing with the Democrats for the 113th Congress, while other Senators could also potentially switch parties.^[12]

There are 53 Democratic, 45 Republican and 2 independent senators (both of whom caucus with the Democrats). 33 senators are up for election this year as class 2 Senators, and three are up for special elections (all from class 3). Among the seats up for election in 2014, currently, there are 21 held by Democrats and 15 held by Republicans.

There may be some changes if senators die or resign. If senators in other classes die or resign between 2012 and 2014, there may be additional special elections. The dates between which the death or resignation of a senator would lead to a special election during this time period vary from state to state.

Colored shading indicates party with largest share of that row.

The following is the list of state-by-state summaries. Unless otherwise indicated, all races are for the class 2 seats whose terms begin January 3, 2015.

Several websites use poll aggregation and psephology to estimate the probability that the Republican Party will gain enough seats to take control of the Senate. On November 2, 2014, Vice President Joe Biden predicted, as reported by CNN, that the Democratic Party will retain control of the Senate, stating, "I predict we're gonna ... keep the Senate." ^[141]

Out of these 11 competitive seats, Republicans need to win at least six in order to gain a majority of at least 51 seats (Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia are currently considered safe Republican gains) and Democrats need to win at least five in order to hold a majority of at least 50 seats (including the two independents who currently caucus with the Democrats; in the case of a tie or deadlock in the Senate, Joe Biden, the Vice President and a Democrat, would cast the tie-breaking vote).

• Parentheses around an incumbent indicates a retiring incumbent.
• Italics indicates an incumbent who most recently took office via appointment or special election

Three-term incumbent Republican Jeff Sessions was re-elected with 63% of the vote in 2008.^[156] He will be 67 years old in 2014. Sessions is seeking re-election. No Democrat filed to run against him.^[157]

One-term incumbent Democrat Mark Begich was elected with 48% of the vote in 2008, defeating six-term Senator Ted Stevens by 3,953 votes (a margin of 1.25 percent).^[156] Begich will be 52 years old in 2014 and is seeking re-election to a second term.^[15] Stevens, who would have been almost 91 years old at the time of the election, had already filed for a rematch back in 2009,^[15] but was killed in a plane crash the following year.

Republican Lieutenant Governor Mead Treadwell,^[158] 2010 nominee Joe Miller,^[159] State Natural Resources Commissioner Daniel S. Sullivan,^[160] and Air Force veteran John Jaramillo ran for the GOP nomination. In the August 19 primary, Sullivan won the Republican nomination with 40% and faces Begich in the general election.^[161]

Two-term incumbent Democrat Mark Pryor was re-elected with 80% of the vote without Republican opposition in 2008.^[162] He will be 51 years old in 2014. Pryor is running for a third term.^[19]

Freshman Representative Tom Cotton of Arkansas's 4th congressional district is the Republican nominee.^[163]

One-term incumbent Democrat Mark Udall was elected with 53% of the vote in 2008. He will be 64 years old in 2014. Udall is running for re-election.^[164]

Congressman Cory Gardner of Colorado's 4th congressional district is the Republican nominee; his late entry into the race caused numerous Republicans to withdraw their candidacies.^[165]

Gaylon Kent, 48 of Steamboat Springs, is the Libertarian Party's nominee.

Unity Party of America founder and National Chairman Bill Hammons is the Unity Party nominee.

Democrat Chris Coons won in the 2010 special election caused by Joe Biden's election as Vice President, winning by a 57% to 41% margin. Coons will be 51 years old in 2014. Coons is seeking re-election. His Republican opponent is engineer Kevin Wade.^[166]

Two-term incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss was re-elected with 57% of the vote in 2008 in a runoff election with former state Representative Jim Martin; Georgia requires run-off elections when no Senate candidate wins over 50% of the vote. Chambliss is not seeking a third term.^[33]

Political activist Derrick Grayson,^[167] Representatives Jack Kingston of Georgia's 1st congressional district,^[168] Paul Broun of Georgia's 10th congressional district,^[169] and Phil Gingrey of Georgia's 11th congressional district^[170] all declared their candidacy for the Republican nomination, as did former Secretary of State Karen Handel^[171] and wealthy businessman David Perdue, cousin of former Governor Sonny Perdue.^[172] In the May 20 primary, no candidate received a majority of votes, so the top two candidates faced each other in a runoff; Perdue won against Kingston in the runoff primary election on July 22 with 50.9% of the vote.^[173]

Michelle Nunn, CEO of Points of Light and the daughter of former U.S. Senator Sam Nunn, won the Democratic nomination.^[174][175] Other declared Democratic candidates included former State Senator Steen Miles, psychiatrist Branko Radulovacki, and former US Army Ranger Todd Robinson.

Amanda Swafford, a former Flowery Branch, Georgia city councilwoman, received the Libertarian Party of Georgia nomination.

Daniel Inouye, the second longest serving United States Senator in U.S. history, died on December 17, 2012, after respiratory complications.^[176] Hawaii law allows Neil Abercrombie, the Governor of Hawaii, to appoint an interim Senator "who serves until the next regularly-scheduled general election, chosen from a list of three prospective appointees that the prior incumbent's political party submits."^[177] Abercrombie picked his Lieutenant Governor, Brian Schatz, to fill the Senate seat.^[178] Inouye was re-elected in 2010 with 72 percent of the vote.^[179] Schatz was challenged in the Democratic primary by Congresswoman Colleen Hanabusa of Hawaii's 1st congressional district, who Inouye had hoped would be his successor.^[180] Schatz defeated Hanabusa in the primary with 48.5% to 47.8%.^[181]

Campbell Cavasso, former State Representative and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2004 and 2010, is the Republican nominee.^[182]

One-term incumbent Republican Jim Risch was elected with 58% of the vote in 2008. He will be 71 years old in 2014. Risch is seeking a second term.^[40]

Boise attorney Nels Mitchell is the Democratic nominee.^[183]

Three-term incumbent and Senate Majority Whip Democrat Dick Durbin was re-elected with 68% of the vote in 2008. He will be 70 years old in 2014. Durbin is running for a fourth term.^[184]

State Senator Jim Oberweis is the Republican nominee.^[185] He defeated primary challenger Doug Truax with 56% of the vote.

Five-term incumbent Democrat Tom Harkin was re-elected with 63% of the vote in 2008. Harkin announced on January 26, 2013 that he would not seek a sixth term.^[186] Congressman Bruce Braley is the Democratic nominee.^[187][188]

State Senator Joni Ernst is the Republican nominee.^[189]

Doug Butzier, who was the Libertarian Party's nominee, died in a plane crash on October 13, 2014 but will still appear on the ballot.^[190]

Three-term incumbent Republican Pat Roberts was re-elected with 60% of the vote in 2008. He will be 78 years old in 2014. Roberts is seeking a fourth term.^[52] He faced a primary challenge from radiologist Milton Wolf, a conservative Tea Party supporter and distant cousin of President Barack Obama.^[191] Roberts defeated Wolf in the Republican primary by 48% to 41%, far less than expected.^[192] Shawnee County District Attorney Chad Taylor won the Democratic nomination.^[193] Randall Batson from Wichita will be on the general election ballot as a Libertarian.^[194] Additionally, Greg Orman qualified for the ballot as an independent.^[195]

On September 3, Taylor announced that he was dropping out of the election, leading to speculation that Democrats would support Orman's candidacy.^[196] On September 18, the Kansas Supreme Court ruled that Taylor's name had to be removed from the ballot.^[197] Orman has not committed to caucusing with either party.^[196]

Five-term Republican incumbent and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell was re-elected with 53% of the vote in 2008. He will be 72 years old in 2014. McConnell is seeking re-election to a sixth term.^[54] McConnell defeated businessman Matt Bevin in the Republican primary on May 20.^[198]

Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes, with support from much of Kentucky's Democratic leadership, won the Democratic primary.^[198][199] Actress Ashley Judd considered running for the Democratic nomination, but ultimately decided against it.^[200][201]

Ed Marksberry is pursuing an independent bid after dropping out of the Democratic field in September 2013.^[202][203]

Three-term incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu was re-elected with 52% of the vote in 2008. Landrieu is running for a fourth term.^[58][204]

Louisiana uses a unique jungle primary system that eschews primaries in favor of run-off elections between the top two candidates; this run-off can be avoided if the winning candidate receives over 50% of the vote. Democrats Wayne Ables, Vallian Senegal, and William Waymire are running against Landrieu in the election, as are Republicans Bill Cassidy (representative of Louisiana's 6th congressional district), Thomas Clements (small business owner), and retired Air Force Colonel Rob Maness.^[205][206] Electrical Engineer Brannon McMorris is running as a Libertarian.^[59]

Three-term incumbent Republican Susan Collins is seeking a fourth term.^[207][208] Shenna Bellows, former Executive Director of the American Civil Liberties Union of Maine, is the Democratic nominee.^[209]

Five-term incumbent and 2004 Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry was re-elected with 66% of the vote in 2008. Kerry resigned in early 2013 to become U.S. Secretary of State.^[210] Governor Deval Patrick appointed Democrat Mo Cowan to the seat.^[211] Democratic Congressman Ed Markey beat Republican Gabriel E. Gomez in the June 25, 2013 special election by a 55% to 45% margin.^[212] Markey will serve the remainder of Kerry's term, and is running for re-election in 2014.^[67] Markey will be 68 years old in November 2014.

Hopkinton City Selectman Brian Herr is the Republican nominee.

Six-term incumbent Senator and Chairman of the Armed Services Committee Democrat Carl Levin, the longest serving Senator in Michigan's history, was re-elected with 63% of the vote in 2008. Levin announced on March 7, 2013 that he would not seek re-election.^[69]

Three term Democratic Representative Gary Peters of MI-14 is the Democratic nominee.^[213]

Republican former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land was unopposed for the Republican nomination.^[214]

One-term incumbent Democrat Al Franken unseated one-term Republican Norm Coleman by 312 votes in a contested three-way race with 42% of the vote in 2008; the third candidate in the race, Dean Barkley of the Independence Party of Minnesota, won 15% of the vote.^[215] Franken is seeking re-election.^[216] State Representative Jim Abeler,^[217] St. Louis County Commissioner Chris Dahlberg,^[218] co-CEO of Lazard Middle Market Mike McFadden,^[77] bison farmer and former hair salon owner Monti Moreno,^[219] state Senator Julianne Ortman,^[220] and U.S. Navy reservist Phillip Parrish^[221] ran for the Republican nomination. McFadden won the Republican primary and is the Republican nominee in the general election.^[222]

Hannah Nicollet of the Independence Party of Minnesota is also running.^[223]

Six-term incumbent Republican Thad Cochran, re-elected with 62% of the vote in 2008, is running for re-election.^[79] He will be 76 years old in 2014. Cochran was the last incumbent Senator to declare his plans, leading to widespread speculation that he would retire.^[224][225]Tea Party candidate Chris McDaniel, a conservative Mississippi state senator, ran against Cochran in the Republican primary.^[226] Neither McDaniel nor Cochran was able to get 50% of the vote in the first round of the primary, so a runoff election was held June 24.^[227]Cochran won the runoff election by 51% to 49%.^[228] McDaniel has mounted a legal challenge to the run-off, but the challenge was unsuccessful at overturning the result.^[229]

Former Congressman Travis Childers is the Democratic nominee.^[80]

Six-term incumbent Democrat Max Baucus, the longest serving Senator in Montana's history, was re-elected with 73% of the vote in 2008. Baucus announced on April 23, 2013 that he would retire in 2014, rather than seek re-election to a seventh term.^[230] Baucus was appointed as the United States Ambassador to China, leading him to resign from the Senate in February 2014.^[231]

Following Baucus's confirmation as ambassador, Governor Steve Bullock appointed Lieutenant Governor John Walsh to fill the vacant senate seat.^[232] Former Lieutenant Governor John Bohlinger was defeated by Walsh in the Democratic primary. Amid controversy over alleged plagiarism in a 2007 research paper, Walsh pulled out of the race.^[233] The Montana Democratic Party held a special nominating convention on August 16 to choose a replacement for Walsh. First-term State Representative Amanda Curtis won the nomination, thereby becoming the new Democratic nominee.^[234]

Congressman Steve Daines won the Republican nomination ^[235] over state Representative Champ Edmunds of Missoula and David Leaser of Kalispell.^[236]

Since the adoption of the 17th Amendment, this seat has been held exclusively by Democrats.

One-term incumbent Republican Mike Johanns was elected with 58% of the vote in 2008. He is not seeking second term.^[237] Term limited Republican Governor Dave Heineman considered running for the Republican nomination, but ultimately decided against running.^[238] Former state Treasurer Shane Osborn,^[239] attorney Bart McLeay, banker Sid Dinsdale, and Midland University President Ben Sasse ran for the Republican nomination.^[240][241] In the May 13 primary, Sasse won the Republican nomination.

Trial lawyer David Domina is the Democratic nominee.^[242]

One-term incumbent Democrat Jeanne Shaheen was elected with 52% of the vote in 2008. She will be 67 years old in 2014. Shaheen is running for re-election.^[89]

Scott Brown, who represented neighboring Massachusetts in the Senate from 2010 to 2012, is the Republican nominee.^[243]

Incumbent Democrat Frank Lautenberg was re-elected with 56% of the vote in 2008. After announcing he wouldn't seek re-election, Lautenberg died in June 2013.^[244][245] Newark Mayor Cory Booker, a Democrat, defeated Republican nominee Steve Lonegan by 55%-to-45% in a 2013 special election to replace interim Republican appointee Jeffrey Chiesa.^[246] Booker is running for re-election in 2014. 1978 and 1982 Republican candidate and political operative Jeffrey Bell is the Republican nominee.^[247]

One-term incumbent Democrat Tom Udall was elected with 61% of the vote in 2008. He will be 66 years old in 2014. Former Doña Ana County Republican Party Chairman David Clements and former New Mexico Republican Party Chairman Allen Weh sought the Republican nomination.^[248] Weh won the June 3 primary and will face Udall in the general election.

One-term incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan was elected with 53% of the vote against incumbent Republican Elizabeth Dole in 2008. Hagan will be 61 years old in 2014 and is seeking re-election.^[249][250] State House Speaker Thom Tillis is the Republican nominatee.^[251] Sean Haugh won the Libertarian nomination.^[250]

Three-term incumbent Republican Jim Inhofe was re-elected with 57% of the vote in 2008. He will be 79 years old in 2014. Inhofe is seeking re-election. Matt Silverstein, an insurance agency owner, is running for the Democratic nomination.^[252]

Two-term incumbent Republican Tom Coburn was re-elected with 71% of the vote in 2010, and was not scheduled to be up for election again until 2016. However, Coburn announced his intention to resign at the end of the 113th Congress. A special election to fill his seat will take place in November 2014, concurrent with the other Senate elections.^[253] Congressman James Lankford is the Republican nominee.^[254][255] State Senator Connie Johnson is the Democratic nominee.^[256]

One-term incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley was narrowly elected with 49% of the vote in 2008. He will be 58 years old in 2014. Merkley is running for a second term. State representative Jason Conger, attorney Tim Crawley, IT consultant Mark Callahan, neurosurgeon Monica Wehby, and former Linn County Republican Chair Jo Rae Perkins all ran for the Republican nomination,^[257] with Wehby ultimately winning the nomination in the May 20 primary.^[258]

Three-term incumbent Democrat Jack Reed was re-elected with 73% of the vote in 2008. He will be 64 years old in 2014. Reed is running for re-election.^[259] Mark Zaccaria is the Republican nominee.

Two-term incumbent Republican Lindsey Graham was re-elected with 58% of the vote in 2008. He will be 59 years old in 2014. Graham won the Republican nomination over a field that included state senator Lee Bright. State Senator Brad Hutto won the Democratic nomination.^[260]

Jim DeMint was elected to a second term in 2010, but he resigned from the Senate in January 2013 to become president of The Heritage Foundation, a conservative think-tank.^[261] Governor Nikki Haley appointed Congressman Tim Scott as DeMint's replacement.^[262] Scott is the Republican nominee to serve the remainder of DeMint's term. Richland County Council member Joyce Dickerson won the Democratic nomination.^[263]

Three-term incumbent Democrat Tim Johnson was re-elected with 63% of the vote in 2008. Johnson announced on March 26, 2013 that he would not run for reelection.^[264] Former Congressional aide Rick Weiland is the Democratic nominee.^[265]

Among Republicans, former two-term Governor Mike Rounds announced his candidacy for the GOP nomination on November 29, 2012.^[266] Rounds won the Republican nomination over state senator Larry Rhoden, state representative Stace Nelson, and physician Annette Bosworth.^[267]

Former Republican Senator Larry Pressler and Republican State Senator Gordon Howie are running as independents.^[268][269] Pressler has not committed to caucusing with either party, while Howie has said that he would caucus with the Senate Republicans.^[270][271]

Two-term incumbent Republican Lamar Alexander was re-elected with 65% of the vote in 2008. He will be 74 years old in 2014. Alexander is seeking re-election to a third term.^[122]

On August 7, 2014, Alexander won the Republican nomination over six challengers, including State Representative Joe Carr.^[272]

On November 4, 2014, Alexander will face Democratic nominee Gordon Ball, Libertarian Party nominee Joshua James,^[273] Constitution Party nominee Joe Wilmothm,^[273] and independent Danny Page^[273] in the general election.

Two-term incumbent Republican John Cornyn, the Senate Minority Whip, was re-elected with 55% of the vote in 2008. Cornyn is seeking re-election, and won the 2014 Republican primary with 59% of the vote.

Dentist David Alameel and Kesha Rogers, a volunteer for The Lyndon LaRouche Policy Institute, faced each other in a run-off election for the Democratic nomination.^[274] Alameel won the run-off and is the Democratic nominee.^[275]

One-term incumbent Democrat Mark Warner was elected with 65% of the vote in 2008; he is seeking re-election. He will be 59 years old in 2014. Ed Gillespie, former RNC Chairman and presidential adviser, is running for the Republican nomination. Robert Sarvis, the Libertarian nominee for Governor in 2013, is also running.^[276]

Five-term incumbent Democrat Jay Rockefeller was re-elected with 64% of the vote in 2008. He announced on January 11, 2013 that he would not seek reelection to a sixth term.^[134] Secretary of State Natalie Tennant won the Democratic nomination.^[277]

On November 26, 2012, Republican Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito announced her plans to run for the seat, in hopes of becoming the first Republican Senator elected from West Virginia since 1956.^[278] Moore Capito won the nomination.

Three-term incumbent Republican Mike Enzi was re-elected with 76% of the vote in 2008. He will be 70 years old in 2014. Enzi is seeking re-election. Liz Cheney, daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney, briefly entered the race for the Republican nomination, but dropped her bid in January 2014.^[279]On August 19, Mike Enzi won the Republican primary election with 82% of the vote, and Democrat Charlie Hardy won his party's primary election with 48% of the vote.^[280]

• United States House of Representatives elections, 2014
• United States gubernatorial elections, 2014