2022 United States Senate election in Utah

The 2022 United States Senate election in Utah was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Utah. Incumbent senator Mike Lee, who was first elected in 2010, won re-election to a third term, defeating Evan McMullin, an independent candidate who was endorsed by the Utah Democratic Party.

2022 United States Senate election in Utah

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NomineeMike LeeEvan McMullin
PartyRepublicanIndependent
AllianceDemocratic
Popular vote571,974459,958
Percentage53.15%42.74%

Lee:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
McMullin:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      >80%
Hansen:      >90%
Williams:      >90%
Tie:      30–40%      40–50%      50%      No votes

U.S. senator before election

Mike Lee
Republican

Elected U.S. senator

Mike Lee
Republican

This was the first Senate election in Utah's history in which there was no Democratic nominee. Lee's performance was the worst for a Republican in a Utah U.S. Senate election since 1974, while McMullin's was the best ever for an independent in a Utah U.S. Senate race and the best for a non-Republican since 1976.

Republican primary

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Incumbent U.S. Senator Mike Lee won over 70% of the vote at the Utah Republican Party state convention on April 23, 2022. Though considered by the party to be its nominee, a primary was still held on June 28, 2022, after two other candidates garnered enough signatures to qualify.[1]

Candidates

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Nominee

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Former state representative Becky Edwards finished second in the primary.
Businesswoman Ally Isom finished third in the primary.

Eliminated in primary

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Eliminated at convention

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Did not file

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Withdrawn

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Declined

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Endorsements

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Polling

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Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Evan
Barlow
Loy
Brunson
Becky
Edwards
Jeremy
Friedbaum
Laird
Hamblin
Ally
Isom
Tyrone
Jensen
Mike
Lee
Brendan
Wright
OtherUndecided
Dan Jones & AssociatesMay 7–13, 2022503 (LV)± 4.3%19%6%49%26%
Dan Jones & AssociatesMarch 9–21, 2022484 (LV)± 4.5%6%1%19%2%1%4%67%
OH Predictive InsightsFebruary 7–14, 2022366 (RV)± 5.1%5%2%2%51%2%37%
Dan Jones & AssociatesOctober 14–21, 2021469 (LV)± 4.5%7%2%53%6%32%
OH Predictive InsightsAugust 2–8, 2021337 (RV)± 5.3%3%2%45%3%48%
RMG ResearchJune 24–25, 2021587 (LV)± 4.0%11%47%8%33%

Results

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Convention

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State Republican Convention results, 2022
CandidateFirst ballotPct.
Mike Lee2,62170.74%
Becky Edwards43611.77%
Ally Isom3589.66%
Jeremy Friedbaum1323.56%
Evan Barlow752.02%
Loy Brunson711.92%
Laird Hamblin120.32%
Total3,705100.00%

Primary

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Results by county:
  Lee
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Republican primary results[24][25]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanMike Lee (incumbent) 258,089 61.94%
RepublicanBecky Edwards123,61729.67%
RepublicanAlly Isom34,9978.40%
Total votes416,703 100.0%

Democratic convention

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The Utah Democratic Party state convention took place on April 23, 2022.[26] Kael Weston was the only Democrat still running; however, the party endorsed Evan McMullin's independent bid in lieu of nominating a candidate,[27] following encouragement from many prominent Democrats in the state, including former Rep. Ben McAdams and Salt Lake County Mayor Jenny Wilson, to back McMullin's campaign.

Candidates

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Eliminated at convention

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Former U.S. State Department official Kael Weston

Did not file

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  • Austin Searle, musician[29]

Withdrew

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Declined

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Endorsements

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Kael Weston
Statewide official

Polling

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Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Allen
Glines
Nicholas
Mitchell
Steve
Schmidt
Austin
Searle
Kael
Weston
Undecided
OH Predictive InsightsFebruary 7–14, 2022110 (RV)± 9.3%2%5%16%2%14%60%

Convention vote

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The Utah Democratic Party held a state convention on April 23, 2022, to endorse candidates for state offices.[36][37][38] Supporters of independent candidate Evan McMullin, led by Salt Lake County mayor Jenny Wilson, introduced a motion for the state party to forgo nominating a Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate and to instead "join Evan McMullin’s independent coalition to beat Mike Lee",[37] contending that not doing so would split the anti-Lee vote in the general election.[37][38] The motion was opposed by supporters of Kael Weston, the lone Democratic candidate for the seat who thus would have received the nomination had the motion failed.[38] The delegates passed the motion by a 57%–43% margin.[37][38]

Democratic convention results[38]
ChoiceVotes%
Endorse Evan McMullin78256.83
Nominate Kael Weston59443.17
Total votes1,376100.00

Libertarian convention

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Candidates

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Nominee

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Eliminated at convention

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Independent American convention

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Candidates

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Declared

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  • Tommy Williams, perennial candidate[41]

Independents

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Candidates

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Declared

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Withdrawn

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General election

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Predictions

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SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[44]Likely RAugust 18, 2022
Inside Elections[45]Likely RSeptember 9, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[46]Likely RJune 15, 2022
Politico[47]Likely RApril 1, 2022
RCP[48]Likely RNovember 5, 2022
Fox News[49]Likely RSeptember 20, 2022
DDHQ[50]Solid RJuly 20, 2022
538[51]Solid RSeptember 22, 2022
The Economist[52]Safe RSeptember 7, 2022

Endorsements

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Mike Lee (R)
U.S. Presidents
Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
Organizations
Evan McMullin (I)
Executive Branch officials
U.S. Representatives
State officials
Local officials
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Political parties
Declined to endorse
U.S. Senators

Polling

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Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Mike
Lee (R)
Evan
McMullin (I)
Undecided
[b]
Margin
FiveThirtyEightJune 15 – November 8, 2022November 8, 202248.5%38.7%12.8%Lee +9.8
270towinOctober 31 – November 1, 2022November 8, 202248.0%36.7%15.3%Lee +11.3
Average48.2%37.7%14.1%Lee +10.5
Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Mike
Lee (R)
Evan
McMullin (I)
OtherUndecided
Hill Research Consultants (I)[A]October 29–30, 2022500 (LV)47%46%
Emerson CollegeOctober 25–28, 2022825 (LV)± 3.3%49%39%9%[c]4%
50%40%11%[d]
OH Predictive InsightsOctober 25–27, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%53%34%4%[e]9%
Hill Research Consultants (I)[A]October 8–11, 2022500 (LV)43%[f]49%4%[g]4%
42%46%4%[h]8%
Kurt Jetta (I)[B]October 4–11, 2022406 (RV)± 3.5%38%37%26%
239 (LV)50%38%12%
OH Predictive InsightsOctober 5–6, 2022483 (LV)± 4.5%47%32%5%[i]16%
Dan Jones & AssociatesOctober 3–6, 2022801 (RV)± 3.5%41%37%8%[j]12%
773 (LV)42%37%8%[j]12%
Dan Jones & AssociatesSeptember 3–21, 2022815 (RV)± 3.4%36%34%13%[k]16%
786 (LV)37%34%13%[k]16%
Lighthouse ResearchAugust 30 – September 13, 2022509 (LV)± 4.4%48%37%10%[l]5%
Kurt Jetta (I)[B]September 1–8, 2022474 (RV)± 3.5%40%37%23%
239 (LV)43%39%18%
Impact Research (I)[C]August 29 – September 1, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%46%47%7%
WPA Intelligence (R)[D]August 4–5, 2022500 (LV)50%32%6%12%
Dan Jones & AssociatesJuly 13–18, 2022801 (RV)± 3.5%41%36%14%8%
WPA Intelligence (R)[D]July 12–14, 2022529 (LV)± 4.3%49%35%10%5%
Kurt Jetta (I)[B]July 12, 2022561 (A)± 4.1%43%32%26%
434 (RV)± 4.7%44%34%22%
213 (LV)± 6.7%50%36%15%
WPA Intelligence (R)[D]June 14–16, 2022300 (LV)± 5.7%52%33%15%
Dan Jones & AssociatesMay 24 – June 15, 2022803 (RV)± 3.5%41%35%4%20%
Dan Jones & AssociatesMay 24 – June 4, 2022810 (RV)± 3.5%41%37%4%19%
Kurt Jetta (I)[B]March 5, 2022683 (A)± 3.7%31%26%44%
– (RV)33%27%40%
– (LV)38%30%32%
Hypothetical polling
Becky Edwards vs. Evan McMullin
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Becky
Edwards (R)
Evan
McMullin (I)
OtherUndecided
Dan Jones & AssociatesMay 24 – June 15, 2022803 (RV)± 3.5%31%29%7%34%
Dan Jones & AssociatesMay 24 – June 4, 2022810 (RV)± 3.5%29%28%6%37%
Ally Isom vs. Evan McMullin
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Ally
Isom (R)
Evan
McMullin (I)
OtherUndecided
Dan Jones & AssociatesMay 24 – June 15, 2022803 (RV)± 3.5%24%34%7%36%
Dan Jones & AssociatesMay 24 – June 4, 2022810 (RV)± 3.5%23%34%7%36%
Mike Lee vs. Kael Weston vs. Evan McMullin
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Mike
Lee (R)
Kael
Weston (D)
Evan
McMullin (I)
OtherUndecided
Moore Information Group (R)March 20–24, 2022400 (LV)± 5.0%49%13%25%1%12%
Dan Jones & AssociatesMarch 9–21, 2022804 (RV)± 3.5%43%11%19%3%24%
OH Predictive InsightsFebruary 7–14, 2022739 (RV)± 3.6%34%12%24%30%
Mike Lee vs. Steve Schmidt vs. Evan McMullin
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Mike
Lee (R)
Steve
Schmidt (D)
Evan
McMullin (I)
Undecided
OH Predictive InsightsFebruary 7–14, 2022739 (RV)± 3.6%36%11%23%30%
Mike Lee vs. Steve Schmidt
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Mike
Lee (R)
Steve
Schmidt (D)
Undecided
OH Predictive InsightsFebruary 7–14, 2022739 (RV)± 3.6%45%25%30%
Mike Lee vs. Kael Weston
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Mike
Lee (R)
Kael
Weston (D)
Undecided
OH Predictive InsightsFebruary 7–14, 2022739 (RV)± 3.6%45%25%30%

Debates

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2022 United States Senate general election in Utah debates
No.DateHostModeratorLinkRepublicanIndependent
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee  W  Withdrawn
Mike LeeEvan McMullin
1Oct. 18, 2022Utah Debate CommissionDoug WrightYouTubePP

Results

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2022 United States Senate election in Utah[89]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
RepublicanMike Lee (incumbent) 571,974 53.15% –15.00
IndependentEvan McMullin459,95842.74%N/A
LibertarianJames Hansen31,7842.95%N/A
Independent AmericanTommy Williams12,1031.12%–1.33
Write-in2420.02%N/A
Total votes1,076,061 100.0%
Republican hold

By county

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By county
CountyMike Lee
Republican
Evan McMullin
Independent
James Hansen
Libertarian
Tommy Williams
Ind. American
Write-inMarginTotal
votes
#%#%#%#%#%#%
Beaver1,97180.5541917.12331.35240.9800.001,55263.422,447
Box Elder14,43472.524,72523.744632.332761.3950.029,70948.7819,903
Cache24,58858.5615,58037.101,2282.925861.4080.029,00821.4541,990
Carbon4,26563.382,11431.422303.421191.7710.012,15131.976,729
Daggett37775.7010921.8940.8081.6100.0026853.81498
Davis66,38553.6352,80642.662,8972.341,6541.34360.0313,57910.97123,778
Duchesne5,17082.2891214.52961.531031.6420.034,25867.776,283
Emery3,26979.6071217.34701.70561.3600.002,55762.264,107
Garfield1,79575.2652021.80331.38371.5500.001,27553.462,385
Grand1,90140.942,42152.142505.38711.5300.00-520-11.204,643
Iron12,92374.663,75521.694372.521941.1200.009,16852.9717,309
Juab3,88682.1471415.09701.48611.2900.003,17267.054,731
Kane2,55369.7794625.851042.84561.5300.001,60743.923,659
Millard4,27983.4170113.66881.72621.2100.003,57869.755,130
Morgan3,66571.071,35826.33791.53551.0700.002,30744.745,157
Piute69288.388210.4760.7730.3800.0061077.91783
Rich84478.6620619.20141.3090.8400.0063859.461,073
Salt Lake144,93138.02218,49557.3213,9023.653,7800.99870.02-73,564-19.30381,195
San Juan3,11856.061,81532.633386.082895.2020.041,30323.435,562
Sanpete7,82978.261,91219.111501.501131.1300.005,91759.1510,004
Sevier6,41182.461,15214.821201.54921.1800.005,25967.647,775
Summit7,30535.8812,32560.545532.721710.8440.02-5,020-24.6620,358
Tooele13,37160.577,48733.928093.664021.8250.025,88426.6522,074
Uintah8,90582.191,55914.392031.871661.5310.017,34667.8010,834
Utah127,09661.6772,23835.054,9492.401,7620.85550.0354,85826.62206,100
Wasatch7,52855.915,42940.323502.601571.1700.002,09915.5913,464
Washington49,42071.1117,78625.591,5262.207691.1100.0031,63445.5269,501
Wayne1,05669.7541527.41261.72171.1200.0064142.341,514
Weber42,00754.5031,26540.562,7563.581,0111.31360.0510,74213.9477,075
Totals571,97453.15459,95842.7431,7842.9512,1031.122420.02112,01610.411,076,061
Counties that flipped from Republican to Independent
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Independent

By congressional district

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Lee won all 4 congressional districts.[90]

DistrictLeeMcMullinRepresentative
1st52%44%Blake Moore
2nd53%42%Chris Stewart
3rd52%44%John Curtis
4th56%40%Burgess Owens

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. ^ Hansen (L) with 4%; Williams (IA) with 3%; "Someone else" with 2%
  4. ^ Hansen (L) with 5%; Williams (IA) with 3%; "Someone else" with 3%
  5. ^ Hansen (L) with 3%; Williams (IA) with 1%
  6. ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  7. ^ Hansen (L) with 4%
  8. ^ Hansen (L) with 4%
  9. ^ Hansen (L) with 3%; Williams (IA) with 2%
  10. ^ a b Williams (IA) with 2%; Hansen (L) with 1%; "Other" with 5%
  11. ^ a b Williams (IA) with 3%; Hansen (L) with 2%; "Other" with 8%
  12. ^ Hansen (L) and Williams (IA) with 5%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b This poll was sponsored by Put Utah First PAC, which supports McMullin
  2. ^ a b c d This poll was sponsored by Center Street PAC, which supports McMullin
  3. ^ This poll was sponsored by McMullin's campaign
  4. ^ a b c This poll was sponsored by Lee's campaign

References

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  1. ^ a b c Romboy, Dennis (April 23, 2022). "Utah GOP overwhelmingly chooses Sen. Mike Lee as nominee, but he still faces primary". Deseret News. Retrieved May 7, 2022.
  2. ^ Schott, Bryan (February 9, 2021). "In fundraising appeal, Sen. Mike Lee claims the anti-Trump Lincoln Project is gunning for him next year". The Salt Lake Tribune. Archived from the original on March 9, 2021. Retrieved March 14, 2021.
  3. ^ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived (PDF) from the original on July 15, 2021. Retrieved February 24, 2021.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  4. ^ "Edwards to challenge Lee for U.S. Senate seat". Fox 13 News. May 27, 2021. Archived from the original on May 27, 2021. Retrieved May 27, 2021.
  5. ^ "Meet Ally Isom, the latest Republican seeking to defeat Utah Sen. Mike Lee in 2022". The Salt Lake Tribune. Archived from the original on July 15, 2021. Retrieved July 15, 2021.
  6. ^ a b Vandenack, Tim (February 10, 2022). "WSU prof vying for US Senate switches to GOP, cites McMullin entry". Standard-Examiner.
  7. ^ a b c d "A stampede of candidates running for office as Utah's filing period ends". The Salt Lake Tribune. Retrieved March 9, 2022.
  8. ^ Vandenack, Tim (March 1, 2022). "US Senate hopeful Kael Weston says his candidacy gives voters a choice". Standard-Examiner.
  9. ^ a b "US Senate candidate Becky Edwards visits Southern Utah during campaign to unseat Mike Lee". St George News. November 24, 2021.
  10. ^ "Ty Jensen Pledges to Support Term Limits on Congress". U.S. Term Limits. November 10, 2021. Retrieved January 18, 2022.
  11. ^ Richards, Connor (March 8, 2021). "Utah County Republican announces 2022 U.S. Senate run". Daily Herald. Archived from the original on March 16, 2021. Retrieved May 16, 2021. Brendan Wright, of Lehi, announced on Saturday, March 6 that he is running in 2022 for the U.S. Senate seat currently filled by Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah.
  12. ^ a b Schott, Bryan (April 5, 2021). "A way too early look at the 2022 U.S. Senate race in Utah and Sen. Mike Lee's possible challengers". The Salt Lake Tribune. Archived from the original on April 19, 2021. Retrieved May 16, 2021.
  13. ^ Epstein, Harrison (January 31, 2022). "Edwards campaign gathering signatures across state for Senate run". Standard-Examiner. Daily Herald. Archived from the original on January 31, 2022. Retrieved February 9, 2022.
  14. ^ Webb, LaVarr (March 8, 2021). "Analysis: GOP hopefuls are testing the water against Mike Lee in 2022". Utah Policy. Archived from the original on March 8, 2021. Retrieved March 8, 2021.
  15. ^ Webb, LaVarr (March 12, 2021). "Opinion briefs: Senate race attracts a crowd . . . National monuments battle . . . federalism & minimum wage". Utah Policy. Archived from the original on March 14, 2021. Retrieved March 15, 2021.
  16. ^ a b Romboy, Dennis (April 1, 2022). "Donald Trump endorses Mike Lee, goes after Evan 'McMuffin' and Mitt Romney at the same time". Deseret News. Archived from the original on April 2, 2022. Retrieved April 2, 2022.
  17. ^ a b c Walters, Ian (August 3, 2021). "The American Conservative Union (ACU) today announced its endorsement of Senator Mike Lee for re-election, the leading conservative in Upper Chamber of Congress". American Conservative Union. Retrieved June 26, 2022.
  18. ^ a b "Club for Growth - PAC Endorsed Candidates". Club for Growth - PAC Endorsed Candidates. Retrieved January 28, 2022.
  19. ^ a b "Eagle Forum PAC Endorses Senator Mike Lee for U.S. Senate in Utah". April 21, 2022. Retrieved May 16, 2022.
  20. ^ a b "FreedomWorks for America Endorses Mike Lee in the Utah U.S. Senate Race". www.freedomworksforamerica.org. August 17, 2021. Retrieved January 10, 2022.
  21. ^ a b "Mike Lee Endorsement". June 20, 2022. Retrieved June 27, 2022.
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  23. ^ a b "Turning Point Action". Turning Point Action - Endorsements. Retrieved January 28, 2022.
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  25. ^ "2022 Regular Primary Election Canvass" (PDF). State of Utah.
  26. ^ "County Conventions". Utah Democratic Party. Retrieved March 31, 2022.
  27. ^ McKellar, Katie [@KatieMcKellar1] (April 23, 2022). "@UtahDemocrats BREAKING: Option 1, to nominate @KaelWeston got 595 votes. Option 2, to join @EvanMcMullin got over 700 votes. @UtahDemocrats delegates have voted to NOT put forth own candidate #utpol" (Tweet). Archived from the original on April 24, 2022. Retrieved May 15, 2022 – via Twitter.
  28. ^ "Kael Weston: Utah's people and land deserve better protections". The Salt Lake Tribune. January 27, 2022.
  29. ^ "Austin Searle isn't challenging Sen. Mike Lee and says viral tweet wasn't 'grifting'". The Salt Lake Tribune. March 10, 2022.
  30. ^ Glines, Allen [@AllenBGlines] (March 8, 2022). "Today I ended my campaign because I needed to attend to a family matter. I appreciate everyone's support. My website is now down and my ActBlue account is discontinued. Once I'm able, I'll be back to continue to fight for the causes I believe in. I hope you'll join me" (Tweet). Archived from the original on March 10, 2022. Retrieved May 15, 2022 – via Twitter.
  31. ^ "He's Black. He's a returned missionary. He's LGBTQ. And he's challenging Utah Sen. Mike Lee". Desert News. October 6, 2021. Archived from the original on October 7, 2021. Retrieved October 7, 2021.
  32. ^ "Utah Rep. Ben McAdams warns Democrats not to move too far to the left". The Salt Lake Tribune. Archived from the original on January 21, 2021. Retrieved January 25, 2021.
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  35. ^ "Paul Van Dam & Lisa Rutherford: Democrats should stand by their own U.S. Senate candidate". The Salt Lake Tribune. March 31, 2021.
  36. ^ Whitehurst, Lindsay (April 23, 2022). "Utah Democrats back independent as US Senate candidate". Associated Press. Archived from the original on April 24, 2022. Retrieved April 24, 2022.
  37. ^ a b c d Bojórquez, Kim (April 23, 2022). "Utah Democrats back independent Evan McMullin for U.S. Senate in a historic vote". The Salt Lake Tribune. Archived from the original on April 24, 2022. Retrieved April 24, 2022.
  38. ^ a b c d e McKellar, Katie (April 23, 2022). "How bad do Utah Democrats want Mike Lee out? Bad enough to ditch their own nominee and back Evan McMullin instead". Deseret News. Archived from the original on April 24, 2022. Retrieved April 24, 2022.
  39. ^ Hansen, James [@JamesArtHansen] (April 9, 2022). "Happy to accept the Utah Libertarian Party nomination for the US Senate! #libertarianutah #utpol #jimmyforutah https://t.co/XQkYFdgPxP" (Tweet). Archived from the original on April 26, 2022. Retrieved May 15, 2022 – via Twitter.
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  89. ^ "2022 General Election State Canvass" (PDF).
  90. ^ @AGavulic17 (March 24, 2023). "Last November, incumbent R Mike Lee defeated Dem-endorsed Independent Evan McMullin by just over 10 points in the Utah Senate race. In a show of how effective the GOP crack of SLC is, Lee won all 4 CDs by roughly equal margins, despite McMullin winning SL County by 19 points" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
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