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2022 United States Senate election in Florida

See also: 2022 United States Senate elections

The 2022 United States Senate election in Florida was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Florida.

2022 United States Senate election in Florida
← 2016November 8, 20222028 →
 
NomineeMarco RubioVal Demings
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Popular vote4,474,8473,201,522
Percentage57.68%41.27%
Rubio:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Demings:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%      No votes
U.S. senator before election

Marco Rubio
Republican

Elected U.S. senator

Marco Rubio
Republican

Incumbent Republican Senator Marco Rubio won re-election to a third term, defeating Democratic nominee Val Demings in a landslide. Rubio was first elected in 2010, filling the seat of appointed Senator George LeMieux. The primary elections for Republicans and Democrats took place on August 23 to finalize candidates for the November election.[1][2] Rubio won the uncontested Republican primary, while incumbent U.S. Representative Val Demings won the Democratic nomination. Rubio became the first Republican to win re-election to a third term in Florida history.[3]

Despite some predicting a close race early,[4] Rubio went on to win by a comfortable 16.4%, improving upon his 2016 performance by 8.7%.

Republican primary edit

Candidates edit

Nominee edit

Did not qualify edit

Withdrawn edit

Declined edit

Endorsements edit

Marco Rubio
U.S. presidents
Sheriffs
  • 55 county sheriffs[26]
Organizations
Labor unions

Democratic primary edit

Immigration attorney William Sanchez finished third in the primary.

Candidates edit

Nominee edit

Eliminated in primary edit

Did not qualify edit

  • Edward Abud, businessman[36]
  • Al Fox, president of the Alliance for Responsible Cuba Policy Foundation[37]
  • Dana Harshman, pharmacist[38]
  • Josue Larose, perennial candidate[39]
  • Coleman Watson, federal attorney and stroke survivor[40][41]
  • Joshua Weil, teacher[42]

Withdrawn edit

Declined edit

Endorsements edit

Val Demings
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
Organizations
Labor unions
Newspapers
Alan Grayson (withdrawn)
Individuals
Joshua Weil (failed to qualify)
Organizations
  • American Youth for Climate Action[87]
  • Progressives for Democracy in America - Florida[87]

Polling edit

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Ricardo
De La Fuente		Val
Demings		Brian
Rush		William
Sanchez		Undecided
University of North FloridaAugust 8–12, 2022529 (LV)± 6.0%2%80%4%4%10%

Results edit

Results by county:
  Demings
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   >90%
  Rush
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
Democratic primary results[88]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticVal Demings 1,263,706 84.3
DemocraticBrian Rush94,1856.3
DemocraticWilliam Sanchez84,5765.6
DemocraticRicardo De La Fuente56,7493.8
Total votes1,499,216 100.0

Independent and third-party candidates edit

Former Black Point supervisor Dennis Misigoy was the Libertarian nominee.
Former Boynton Beach mayor Steven B. Grant ran as an Independent.
Businessman Howard Knepper ran a write-in campaign.

Libertarian Party edit

Candidates edit

Qualified edit

Unity Party edit

Candidates edit

Did not file edit

Independent candidates edit

Candidates edit

Declared edit
Did not qualify edit
  • Carlos Barberena, digital marketing consultant[93]
Did not file edit
  • Grace Granda, business consultant[94]
Withdraw edit
  • Jason Holic, businessman[95]
Declined edit

Write-ins edit

Candidates edit

Declared edit
  • Jay An
  • Uloma Uma Expete
  • Edward Gray
  • Salomon Hernandez Sr.
  • Howard Knepper, businessman and perennial candidate
  • Moses Quiles, security technician

General election edit

Predictions edit

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[98]Likely ROctober 18, 2022
Inside Elections[99]Likely RAugust 25, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[100]Likely RAugust 24, 2022
Politico[101]Likely RNovember 3, 2022
RCP[102]Lean RFebruary 24, 2022
Fox News[103]Lean RMay 12, 2022
DDHQ[104]Likely RJuly 20, 2022
538[105]Solid RNovember 4, 2022
The Economist[106]Likely RSeptember 7, 2022

Endorsements edit

Marco Rubio (R)
U.S. presidents
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
Sheriffs
  • 55 county sheriffs[26]
Organizations
Labor unions
Val Demings (D)
U.S. presidents
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations
Labor unions
Newspapers

Polling edit

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Marco
Rubio (R)		Val
Demings (D)		Undecided
[b]		Margin
Real Clear PoliticsOctober 17, 2022 – November 6, 2022November 8, 202252.4%43.6%4.0%Rubio +8.8
FiveThirtyEightSeptember 18, 2022 – November 4, 2022November 8, 202252.3%43.5%4.2%Rubio +8.8
270towinNovember 4–7, 2022November 8, 202251.6%42.4%6.0%Rubio +9.2
Average52.1%43.2%4.7%Rubio +8.9
Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Marco
Rubio (R)		Val
Demings (D)		OtherUndecided
Research Co.November 4–6, 2022450 (LV)± 4.6%52%42%2%[c]4%
Data for Progress (D)November 2–6, 20221,436 (LV)± 3.0%55%43%2%[d]–
Amber Integrated (R)November 1–2, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%49%40%4%[e]7%
CiviqsOctober 29 – November 2, 2022772 (LV)± 3.9%52%45%2%[f]1%
InsiderAdvantage (R)November 1, 2022550 (LV)± 4.2%51%45%1%[g]3%
Siena CollegeOctober 30 – November 1, 2022659 (LV)± 4.4%51%43%2%[h]4%
Victory InsightsOctober 30 – November 1, 2022500 (LV)± 4.8%50%46%–5%
Florida State University/YouGovOctober 20–31, 20221,117 (RV)–51%44%––
University of North Florida Archived November 10, 2022, at the Wayback MachineOctober 17–24, 2022622 (LV)± 4.7%54%43%<1%[i]3%
Data for Progress (D)October 19–23, 20221,251 (LV)± 3.0%51%44%2%[j]2%
Florida Atlantic UniversityOctober 12–16, 2022719 (LV)± 3.7%48%42%3%[k]7%
RMG Research (R) Archived November 15, 2022, at the Wayback Machine[A]October 10–13, 2022685 (LV)± 3.7%50%45%–5%
Mason-Dixon Polling & StrategySeptember 26–28, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%47%41%2%10%
Siena CollegeSeptember 18–25, 2022669 (LV)± 4.5%48%41%2%[l]9%
CiviqsSeptember 17–20, 2022617 (LV)± 4.5%49%47%3%[m]2%
Suffolk UniversitySeptember 15–18, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%45%41%4%[n]9%
Sachs MediaSeptember 10, 2022600 (LV)–49%46%–5%
Kurt Jetta (D)[B]September 9–10, 2022999 (RV)± 3.0%48%40%–12%
563 (LV)50%45%–5%
Echelon InsightsAugust 31 – September 7, 2022815 (RV)± 4.3%50%41%–9%
InsiderAdvantage (R)September 5–6, 2022550 (LV)± 4.2%46%44%–10%
Susquehanna Polling and Research (R)August 29 – September 4, 2022500 (LV)± 4.3%47%44%–9%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)August 24–31, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%49%47%–4%
Clarity Campaign Labs (D)[C]August 25–30, 20223,017 (LV)± 1.8%46%45%–9%
Impact Research (D)[D]August 12–18, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%49%46%–5%
Kurt Jetta (D)[B]August 12–14, 2022996 (RV)± 3.1%46%39%–14%
610 (LV)± 4.0%52%41%–7%
University of North FloridaAugust 8–12, 20221,624 (RV)± 3.4%44%48%7%2%
Change Research (D)[E]August 2–5, 20221,031 (LV)± 3.1%46%46%–7%
Clarity Campaign Labs (D)[C]July 26–31, 20222,244 (LV)± 2.1%45%45%–10%
Kurt Jetta (D)[B]July 9, 2022906 (A)± 3.3%46%38%–16%
732 (RV)± 3.6%45%40%–16%
428 (LV)± 4.7%50%42%–8%
Public Policy Polling (D)[F]May 26–27, 2022655 (V)± 3.8%47%41%–12%
Phillips AcademyMay 7–9, 2022543 (RV)± 4.2%34%36%–30%
Moore Information Group (R)March 14–19, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%47%32%8%[o]12%
Saint Leo University Archived April 1, 2022, at the Wayback MachineFebruary 28 – March 12, 2022500 (LV)± 4.5%45%27%–28%
Kurt Jetta (D)[B]March 4, 20221,098 (A)± 3.0%45%26%–29%
893 (RV)± 3.3%45%27%–28%
446 (LV)± 4.6%49%35%–16%
University of North FloridaFebruary 7–20, 2022685 (RV)± 3.7%46%34%–20%
Mason-Dixon Polling & StrategyFebruary 7–10, 2022625 (RV)± 4.0%49%42%–9%
Suffolk UniversityJanuary 26–29, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%49%41%0%10%
St. Pete PollsNovember 18–19, 20212,896 (LV)± 1.8%51%44%–5%
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesNovember 9, 2021867 (RV)± 3.3%45%33%3%12%
842 (LV)± 3.4%48%36%3%10%
Saint Leo UniversityOctober 17–23, 2021500 (A)± 4.5%47%29%–25%
VCreek/AMG (R)[G]September 23–27, 2021405 (LV)± 4.9%42%38%5%15%
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesAugust 20–24, 20211,000 (RV)± 3.1%46%34%3%11%
977 (LV)± 3.1%48%37%3%10%
Political Matrix/Listener Group (R)August 14–18, 20211,000 (LV)± 3.1%55%45%––
St. Pete PollsAugust 16–17, 20212,068 (RV)± 2.2%48%46%–6%
Change Research (D)[H]August 14–17, 20211,585 (LV)± 2.5%47%44%–9%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)August 4–10, 2021700 (RV)± 3.7%50%39%1%9%
Political Matrix/Listener Group (R)June 27, 2021681 (LV)± 3.9%60%40%––
Hypothetical polling
Marco Rubio vs. Aramis Ayala
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Marco
Rubio (R)		Aramis
Ayala (D)		Undecided
Cherry Communications (R)April 30 – May 8, 2021602 (LV)± 4.0%52%39%–
Marco Rubio vs. Alan Grayson
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Marco
Rubio (R)		Alan
Grayson (D)		OtherUndecided
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesNovember 9, 2021867 (RV)± 3.3%43%34%4%12%
842 (LV)± 3.4%46%37%4%10%
VCreek/AMG (R)[G]September 23–27, 2021405 (LV)± 4.9%44%32%10%14%
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesAugust 20–24, 20211,000 (RV)± 3.1%46%33%4%12%
977 (LV)± 3.1%48%36%4%11%
Marco Rubio vs. Stephanie Murphy
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Marco
Rubio (R)		Stephanie
Murphy (D)		Undecided
Cherry Communications (R)April 30 – May 8, 2021602 (LV)± 4.0%51%41%–
Marco Rubio vs. generic Democrat
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Marco
Rubio (R)		Generic
Democrat		Undecided
Mason-DixonFebruary 24–28, 2021625 (RV)± 4.0%46%40%14%
Data for Progress (D)[I]September 15–22, 2020620 (LV)± 3.9%42%43%15%

Debates edit

2022 United States Senate general election in Florida debates
No.DateHostModeratorLinkRepublicanDemocratic
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee  W  Withdrawn
Marco RubioVal Demings
1Oct. 18, 2022Palm Beach State CollegeTodd McDermottYoutubePP

Results edit

State Senate district results
State House district results
United States Senate election in Florida, 2022[124]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
RepublicanMarco Rubio (incumbent) 4,474,847 57.68% +5.70%
DemocraticVal Demings3,201,52241.27%-3.04%
LibertarianDennis Misigoy32,1770.41%-1.71%
IndependentSteven B. Grant31,8160.41%N/A
IndependentTuan TQ Nguyen17,3850.22%N/A
Write-in2670.00%±0.00%
Total votes7,758,126 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

By county edit

By county
CountyMarco Rubio
Republican		Val Demings
Democratic		Dennis Misigoy
Libertarian		Steven B. Grant
Independent		Tuan Nguyen
Independent		Write-inMarginTotal
votes
#%#%#%#%#%#%#%
Alachua39,22040.9755,43957.914390.463490.362850.3020.00-16,219-16.9495,734
Baker9,43188.211,18111.05430.40310.2960.0600.008,25077.1610,692
Bay51,65777.1514,54721.733000.452550.381960.2910.0037,11055.4266,956
Bradford8,15679.881,94219.02370.36550.54190.1910.016,21460.8610,210
Brevard165,23361.8598,97837.051,2360.461,0750.406310.24100.0066,25524.80267,163
Broward238,96239.96353,57559.122,0810.352,0830.351,2230.201220.02-114,613-19.16598,046
Calhoun4,06784.1770014.49130.27400.83120.2500.003,36769.684,832
Charlotte63,84569.0627,75730.022540.274520.491380.1520.0036,08839.0492,448
Citrus55,08772.8019,63425.952950.394910.651580.2130.0035,45346.8575,668
Clay65,97273.2623,05425.604410.493770.422010.2240.0042,91847.6690,049
Collier116,05070.9846,53728.463870.243400.211710.1040.0069,51342.52163,489
Columbia18,34477.555,07021.43930.391030.44450.1900.0013,27456.1123,655
DeSoto6,46974.712,09724.22270.31510.59150.1700.004,37250.498,659
Dixie5,22585.1882613.47210.34520.85100.1600.004,39971.726,134
Duval177,40153.95147,64644.901,5670.481,2680.399570.2920.0029,7559.05328,841
Escambia73,22563.4040,79035.325980.524590.404200.3640.0032,43528.08115,496
Flagler37,93464.7120,20434.472040.351910.33860.1520.0017,73030.2558,621
Franklin3,88571.711,47127.15230.42290.54100.1800.002,41444.565,418
Gadsden6,08635.0111,11363.93630.36990.57230.1300.00-5,027-28.9217,384
Gilchrist6,65784.851,08713.85400.51470.60140.1810.015,57070.997,846
Glades3,02679.2676420.01100.26160.4220.0500.002,26259.253,818
Gulf5,06978.971,29520.17190.30240.37120.1900.003,77458.796,419
Hamilton3,03070.761,21528.37180.42150.3540.0900.001,81542.394,282
Hardee4,48081.1398117.77230.42300.5480.1400.003,49963.365,522
Hendry6,00872.972,12125.76360.44540.66140.1700.003,88747.218,233
Hernando54,82268.4024,29830.323520.444620.582140.2710.0030,52438.0880,149
Highlands28,77772.4310,48026.381460.372660.67620.1600.0018,29746.0539,731
Hillsborough253,49552.55222,37846.102,4980.522,3450.491,6180.3490.0031,1176.45482,343
Holmes6,15190.865568.21230.34340.5060.0900.005,59682.646,770
Indian River50,87865.9125,61333.182680.352970.381330.1730.0025,26532.7377,192
Jackson12,18874.873,95624.30410.25800.49140.0900.008,23250.5716,279
Jefferson4,13758.072,92941.11240.34240.34100.1400.001,20816.967,124
Lafayette2,52186.7234811.97110.38220.7650.1700.002,17374.752,907
Lake103,10364.4355,37734.616190.396240.392870.1830.0047,72629.83160,013
Lee185,12367.4487,10831.738980.339340.344460.1610.0098,01535.71274,510
Leon46,51139.5969,67759.314950.424280.363750.3210.00-23,166-19.72117,487
Levy13,69076.633,94422.08700.391160.65440.2510.019,74654.5517,865
Liberty2,16483.1740515.56110.42190.7330.1200.001,75967.602,602
Madison4,47664.162,44235.01230.33260.3790.1300.002,03429.166,976
Manatee108,23463.1561,42335.847370.436800.403120.1880.0046,81127.31171,394
Marion104,65567.1849,69831.906250.405790.372280.1560.0054,95735.28155,791
Martin52,31267.4424,63931.772420.312590.331100.1420.0027,67335.6877,564
Miami-Dade386,25154.27318,97844.822,5930.362,6330.371,2570.1830.0067,2739.45711,715
Monroe19,89758.5713,75640.491510.441070.31610.1800.006,14118.0833,972
Nassau35,94475.3311,33723.762010.421660.35640.1310.0024,60751.5747,713
Okaloosa60,80875.2718,85123.334730.593710.462860.3500.0041,95751.9380,789
Okeechobee8,53278.542,21820.42380.35590.54160.1500.006,31458.1210,863
Orange177,10543.51225,56955.421,7580.431,3880.341,2240.3090.00-48,464-11.91407,053
Osceola51,42250.0749,90748.605320.525130.503120.3070.011,5151.48102,693
Palm Beach267,71549.34269,83949.731,8000.332,2400.411,0100.19140.00-2,124-0.39542,618
Pasco143,76064.0577,66434.601,0630.471,3250.596220.2870.0066,09629.45224,441
Pinellas223,74753.01192,05845.512,5990.622,3530.561,2880.3120.0031,6897.51422,047
Polk144,54862.9882,26135.849800.431,2100.534930.2160.0062,28727.14229,498
Putnam19,81274.656,45024.30960.361390.52430.1600.0013,36250.3526,540
Santa Rosa59,11178.2215,55420.583920.523230.431900.2500.0043,55757.6475,570
Sarasota129,86559.4686,61839.667440.348320.383550.1620.0043,24719.80218,416
Seminole97,76153.4183,28545.508700.486500.364570.2550.0014,4767.91183,028
St. Johns98,56468.2744,37130.736590.464760.332880.20130.0154,19337.54144,371
St. Lucie69,92457.4050,85141.744150.344140.342200.1800.0019,07315.66121,824
Sumter63,80671.4425,01028.001890.212200.25910.1010.0038,79643.4489,317
Suwannee13,12580.493,01818.51570.35830.51230.1400.0010,10761.9816,306
Taylor6,06379.601,49519.63250.33260.3480.1100.004,56859.977,617
Union3,91786.3058012.78130.29220.4870.1500.003,33773.524,539
Volusia139,08561.5884,54337.439430.428710.394170.1830.0054,54224.15225,862
Wakulla10,48569.914,34328.96690.46650.43350.2310.016,14240.9514,998
Walton28,20381.006,32618.171240.36990.28650.1900.0021,87762.8334,817
Washington7,64184.011,34514.79420.46500.55170.1900.006,29669.229,095
Totals4,474,84757.683,201,52241.2732,1770.4131,8160.4117,3850.222670.001,273,32516.417,758,014
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district edit

Rubio won 20 of 28 congressional districts.[125]

DistrictRubioDemingsRepresentative
1st72%27%Matt Gaetz
2nd60%39%Neal Dunn
3rd62%37%Kat Cammack
4th59%40%Aaron Bean
5th64%35%John Rutherford
6th66%33%Michael Waltz
7th57%42%Stephanie Murphy (117th Congress)
Cory Mills (118th Congress)
8th63%36%Bill Posey
9th48%51%Darren Soto
10th39%60%Val Demings (117th Congress)
Maxwell Frost (118th Congress)
11th61%38%Daniel Webster
12th68%31%Gus Bilirakis
13th56%42%Anna Paulina Luna
14th45%53%Kathy Castor
15th57%41%Laurel Lee
16th60%39%Vern Buchanan
17th63%35%Greg Steube
18th68%31%Scott Franklin
19th68%31%Byron Donalds
20th28%71%Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick
21st61%39%Brian Mast
22nd46%53%Lois Frankel
23rd48%51%Jared Moskowitz
24th29%69%Frederica Wilson
25th45%54%Debbie Wasserman Schultz
26th70%30%Mario Díaz-Balart
27th57%42%María Elvira Salazar
28th63%37%Carlos A. Giménez

Voter demographics edit

Edison Research exit poll
Demographic subgroupDemingsRubioNo
answer		% of
voters
Gender
Men3762149
Women4851151
Age
18–24 years old574127
25–29 years old583924
30–39 years old5543N/A13
40–49 years old4158112
50–64 years old3862N/A32
65 and older3762133
Race
White3564164
Black909N/A11
Latino4156221
Race by gender
White men2871N/A32
White women4357232
Black men891115
Black women928N/A6
Latino men4255210
Latina women4157111
Education
High school or less3563215
Some college education4258125
Associate degree4257219
Bachelor's degree4454124
Advanced degree4851117
Party ID
Democrats973N/A28
Republicans397142
Independents4849230
Ideology
Liberals918120
Moderates5741139
Conservatives793242
Marital status
Married4060159
Unmarried5048241
Gender by marital status
Married men3366130
Married women4653129
Unmarried men4851318
Unmarried women5247223
First-time midterm election voter
Yes4258411
No4455N/A89
Most important issue facing the country
Crime3266210
Inflation2872139
Gun policy6336N/A10
Immigration1288N/A10
Abortion8118N/A24
Area type
Urban4554146
Suburban4257244
Rural3168N/A10
Source: CNN[126]

See also edit

Notes edit

  1. ^ a b c d e f Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  4. ^ Misigoy (L) with 1%; "Another candidate" with 1%
  5. ^ Misigoy (L) with 3%; "Other" with 1%
  6. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  7. ^ "Another candidate" with 1%
  8. ^ "Not going to vote" with 2%
  9. ^ "Refused" with <1%
  10. ^ Misigoy (L) with 1%; "Another candidate" with 1%
  11. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  12. ^ "Not going to vote" with 2%
  13. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  14. ^ Misigoy (L) with 1%; Grant (I) with 1%; Nguyen (I) with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
  15. ^ Barberena with 5%, "None" with 3%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ Poll conducted for Tripp Scott, a law firm associated with the Florida Republican Party.
  2. ^ a b c d This poll was sponsored by Center Street PAC, which opposes Rubio
  3. ^ a b This poll was sponsored by Progress Florida and Florida Watch
  4. ^ This poll was sponsored by the Democratic Governors Association
  5. ^ This poll was sponsored by EMILY's List
  6. ^ This poll was sponsored by Giffords, which supports Demings
  7. ^ a b This poll was sponsored by Americas PAC
  8. ^ This poll was sponsored by Future Majority
  9. ^ Poll sponsored by the Defend Students Action Fund

References edit

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External links edit

Official campaign websites
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