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2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special election

This article is about the special election. For the regularly-held election, see 2022 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska.
For broader coverage of this topic, see Alaska's at-large congressional district.

The 2022 Alaska at-large congressional district special election was held on August 16 to fill the seat left vacant after the death of Republican incumbent Don Young.[2] Mary Peltola defeated former governor Sarah Palin in the election, becoming the first Democrat to represent Alaska in the House since 1972, the first Alaska Native elected to Congress, and the first woman elected to represent Alaska in the House.[3]

2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special election
← 2020August 16, 2022November 2022 →
Alaska's at-large congressional district
Turnout32.2%[1]
 
CandidateMary PeltolaSarah PalinNick Begich III
PartyDemocraticRepublicanRepublican
First round74,817
39.7%		58,339
30.9%		52,536
27.8%
Final round91,266
48.4%		86,026
45.6%		Eliminated
Peltola:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Palin:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
U.S. Representative before election

Don Young
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Mary Peltola
Democratic

The election was the first held after the passage of 2020 Alaska Measure 2, establishing a new procedure for elections. Under the new system, the top 4 candidates in a nonpartisan blanket primary advance to the general election. The general election is conducted using instant-runoff voting, a variant on traditional primaries where last-place candidates are repeatedly eliminated until only one candidate is left. Al Gross's withdrawal left only three names on the ballot in the general election.

The runoff count commenced on August 31, after all absentee and overseas ballots were counted.[4][5] Peltola was declared the winner on August 31.[6] The Democratic victory was widely considered an upset due to Alaska's strong Republican lean. Peltola became the first Democrat to win a statewide or congressional election in Alaska since Mark Begich in 2008.[7] She was sworn in to the House of Representatives on September 13. [8]

The election generated controversy as a result of several election pathologies. The instant-runoff election produced a winner opposed by a majority of voters,[9] with both polls and analyses of the cast ballots finding that most voters preferred Nick Begich over both opponents.[10] Republican Sarah Palin played the role of spoiler by knocking out Begich in the first round, despite being the weakest candidate in the race.[9][10][11]

The election was also notable for being a participation failure, a situation where a candidate is disqualified as a result of receiving too many votes.[11] In this race, Peltola won as a result of 3% of Alaska ballots that ranked her last (after Palin and Begich).[10]

Nonpartisan blanket primary edit

Santa Claus
John Coghill
Christopher Constant
John Howe
Jeff Lowenfels
J. R. Myers
Josh Revak
Tara Sweeney
Adam Wool

Candidates edit

Advanced to general election edit

Withdrew after advancing to general election edit

Eliminated in primary edit

Withdrawn edit

Declined edit

Endorsements edit

Nick Begich (R)
State legislators
Organizations
Individuals
  • Jim and Faye Palin, Sarah Palin's former father-in-law and mother-in-law[36]
Santa Claus (I)
State legislators
Christopher Constant (D)
U.S. senators
  • Mark Begich, former United States senator (2009–2015)
State legislators
Local officials
Al Gross (I)
State officials
State legislators
Sarah Palin (R)
U.S. executive branch officials
U.S. federal legislators
Individuals
Organizations
Mary Peltola (D)
Individuals
Josh Revak (R)
Individuals
  • Anne Garland Young, Don Young's widow[42]
Tara Sweeney (R)
U.S. executive branch officials
State officials
Organizations
  • ANCSA Regional Association[43]

Debates and forums edit

2022 Alaska at-large special primary debates and forums
No.DateHostModeratorLinkParticipants
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee W  Withdrawn
BegichCoghillConstantGrossLowenfelsPalinRevakPeltolaSweeney
1[44]May 12, 2022Alaska Chamber
Alaska Miners Association
Alaska Oil and Gas Association
Alaska Support Industry Alliance
Associated General Contractors of Alaska
Resource Development Council		N/AYoutubePPPPPPPPP

Polling edit

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Nick
Begich
(R)		Santa
Claus
(I)		John
Coghill
(R)		Christopher
Constant
(D)		Al
Gross
(I)		Andrew
Halcro
(I)		Jeff
Lowenfels
(I)		Sarah
Palin
(R)		Mary
Peltola
(D)		Josh
Revak
(R)		Tara
Sweeney
(R)		Adam
Wool
(D)		OtherUndecided
Alaska Survey ResearchMay 6–9, 2022605 (LV)± 4.0%16%6%2%5%13%2%3%19%5%4%4%2%4%16%
Remington Research Group (R)April 7–9, 2022955 (LV)± 3.1%21%––7%26%––31%–3%2%–4%6%

Results edit

Primary election results by state house district
2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special primary election results[45]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanSarah Palin 43,601 27.01
RepublicanNick Begich 30,861 19.12
IndependentAl Gross[b] 20,392 12.63
DemocraticMary Peltola 16,265 10.08
RepublicanTara Sweeney9,5605.92
IndependentSanta Claus7,6254.72
DemocraticChristopher Constant6,2243.86
IndependentJeff Lowenfels5,9943.71
RepublicanJohn Coghill3,8422.38
RepublicanJosh Revak3,7852.34
IndependentAndrew Halcro3,0131.87
DemocraticAdam Wool2,7301.69
DemocraticEmil Notti1,7771.10
LibertarianChris Bye1,0490.65
DemocraticMike Milligan6080.38
IndependenceJohn Howe3800.24
IndependentLaurel Foster3380.21
RepublicanStephen Wright3320.21
RepublicanJay Armstrong2860.18
LibertarianJ. R. Myers2850.18
IndependentGregg Brelsford2840.18
DemocraticErnest Thomas1990.12
RepublicanBob Lyons1970.12
RepublicanOtto Florschutz1930.12
RepublicanMaxwell Sumner1330.08
RepublicanClayton Trotter1210.07
IndependentAnne McCabe1180.07
RepublicanJohn Callahan1140.07
IndependentArlene Carle1070.07
IndependentTim Beck960.06
IndependentSherry Mettler920.06
RepublicanTom Gibbons940.06
IndependentLady Donna Dutchess870.05
American IndependentRobert Ornelas830.05
IndependentTed Heintz700.04
IndependentSilvio Pellegrini700.04
IndependentKaryn Griffin670.04
IndependentDavid Hughes540.03
IndependentDon Knight460.03
RepublicanJo Woodward440.03
IndependentJason Williams370.02
IndependentRobert Brown360.02
IndependentDennis Aguayo310.02
IndependentWilliam Hibler III250.02
RepublicanBradley Welter240.01
IndependentDavid Thistle230.01
IndependentBrian Beal190.01
RepublicanMikel Melander170.01
Total votes161,428 100.0

General election edit

Under Alaska's top-four primary system, if a general election candidate drops out, the director of elections may replace them with the name of the fifth-place finisher. Shortly after the primary, Al Gross dropped out of the general election, but Division of Elections Director Gail Fenumiai did not advance Tara Sweeney in his place because there were less than 64 days remaining until the general election as required by law. After a lawsuit, the Alaska Supreme Court upheld Fenumiai's decision.[29]

Predictions edit

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[46]Likely RAugust 10, 2022
Inside Elections[47]Likely RAugust 4, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[48]Safe RJune 22, 2022

Endorsements edit

Nick Begich (R)
State legislators
Local officials
  • Amy Demboski, Anchorage assembly member
Organizations
Individuals
  • Jim and Faye Palin, Sarah Palin's former father-in-law and mother-in-law
Sarah Palin (R)
U.S. executive branch officials
U.S. federal legislators
Individuals
Organizations
Mary Peltola (D)
U.S. federal legislators
State officials
State legislators
Local officials

Individuals

Labor unions

Organizations

Tribes

Polling edit

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		RCV
count		Nick
Begich
(R)		Al
Gross
(I)		Sarah
Palin
(R)		Mary
Peltola
(D)		Undecided
Alaska Survey ResearchJuly 20–25, 20221,219 (LV)± 2.9%130%–29%41%–
255%–45%
2*[c]–49%51%
Alaska Survey ResearchJuly 2–5, 20221,201 (LV)± 2.9%131%–29%40%–
257%–43%
2*[c]–49%51%
June 21, 2022Gross withdraws from the race
Alaska Survey ResearchMay 6–9, 2022605 (LV)± 4.0%129%27%26%19%–
233%40%28%–
354%46%–
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		RCV
count		Nick
Begich
(R)		Santa
Claus
(I)		Christopher
Constant
(D)		Al
Gross
(I)		Sarah
Palin
(R)		Tara
Sweeney
(R)		Undecided
Alaska Survey ResearchMay 6–9, 2022605 (LV)± 4.0%128%21%–26%25%––
232%–40%28%
353%47%–
3*[d]–53%–47%
Alaska Survey ResearchMay 6–9, 2022605 (LV)± 4.0%129%–17%27%28%––
232%–40%28%
354%46%–
Alaska Survey ResearchMay 6–9, 2022605 (LV)± 4.0%128%–35%26%11%–
232%39%29%–
355%45%–
Al Gross vs. Sarah Palin vs. Lora Reinbold vs. Josh Revak
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		RCV
count		Al
Gross
(I)		Sarah
Palin
(R)		Lora
Reinbold
(R)		Josh
Revak
(R)		Undecided
Change Research (D)[A]March 25–29, 2022728 (LV)± 3.6%BA33%30%8%9%16%
233%30%–11%26%
335%35%––30%
Al Gross vs. Sarah Palin
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Al
Gross (I)		Sarah
Palin (R)		Undecided
Change Research (D)[A]March 25–29, 2022728 (LV)± 3.6%40%42%19%
Al Gross vs. Josh Revak
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Al
Gross (I)		Josh
Revak (R)		Undecided
Change Research (D)[A]March 25–29, 2022728 (LV)± 3.6%35%34%31%

Results edit

Preference flow
2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special election[1][55]
PartyCandidateFirst choiceRound 1Round 2
Votes%TransferVotes%TransferVotes%
DemocraticMary Peltola74,81739.66%+98275,79940.19%+15,46791,26648.4%
RepublicanSarah Palin58,33930.92%+63458,97331.27%+27,05386,02645.6%
RepublicanNick Begich52,53627.84%+1,27453,81028.53%-53,810Eliminated
Write-in2,9741.58%-2,974Eliminated
Total votes188,666188,582177,292
Blank or inactive ballots3,707+11,29014,997
Democratic gain from Republican
First round results by state house district
DistrictNick Begich
Republican		Sarah Palin
Republican		Mary Peltola
Democratic		Write-inMargin [e]Total votes
#%#%#%#%#%
District 11,44833.42%1,40932.52%1,43233.05%441.02%160.37%4,333
District 297920.03%1,50430.78%2,35948.27%450.92%85517.50%4,887
District 31,52223.28%1,23518.89%3,72356.94%590.90%2,20133.66%6,539
District 41,00317.38%70112.15%4,01469.55%530.92%3,01152.17%5,771
District 592923.05%1,30132.27%1,74343.24%581.44%44210.97%4,031
District 61,92325.63%2,46832.90%3,03940.51%720.96%5717.61%7,502
District 71,67330.99%2,44845.34%1,21322.47%651.20%77514.35%5,399
District 81,86728.54%3,21649.17%1,39421.31%640.98%1,34920.62%6,541
District 92,68432.55%1,65620.08%3,72245.13%1852.24%1,03812.59%8,247
District 101,68732.11%1,37026.08%2,09939.96%971.85%4127.84%5,253
District 112,05433.11%1,50624.28%2,53740.90%1061.71%4837.79%6,203
District 121,34128.17%1,11423.40%2,22846.81%771.62%88718.63%4,760
District 131,09627.41%1,04726.18%1,79144.79%651.63%69517.38%3,999
District 141,00021.80%89719.56%2,61557.01%751.64%1,61535.21%4,587
District 151,88432.62%1,34923.36%2,43942.23%1031.78%5559.61%5,775
District 161,67127.09%1,13818.45%3,23452.43%1252.03%1,56325.34%6,168
District 1790518.96%70414.75%3,06664.25%972.03%2,16145.28%4,772
District 1829922.91%36027.59%62647.97%201.53%26620.38%1,305
District 1953620.93%52120.34%1,46557.20%391.52%92936.27%2,561
District 2088523.17%92424.19%1,96951.56%411.07%1,04527.36%3,819
District 211,52828.67%1,25623.56%2,46946.32%771.44%94117.65%5,330
District 2275530.77%68227.79%97139.57%461.87%2168.80%2,454
District 231,90932.15%1,88431.73%2,04434.43%1001.68%1352.27%5,937
District 242,19137.08%1,94532.92%1,68228.47%911.54%2464.16%5,909
District 252,07033.93%2,33838.32%1,62426.62%691.13%2684.39%6,101
District 261,56631.95%2,39848.92%88318.01%551.12%83216.97%4,902
District 271,41030.78%2,30350.27%80917.66%591.29%89319.49%4,581
District 281,68332.88%2,40246.92%97919.12%551.07%71914.05%5,119
District 291,83432.35%2,39042.15%1,39524.60%510.90%5569.81%5,670
District 301,58126.73%2,72946.14%1,54226.07%631.07%1,14819.41%5,915
District 3195326.64%1,14431.98%1,40739.33%732.04%2637.35%3,577
District 3256226.53%92943.86%58127.43%462.17%34816.43%2,118
District 331,11727.45%2,14552.72%74318.26%641.57%1,02825.26%4,069
District 341,41125.52%1,96635.56%2,04136.91%1112.01%751.36%5,529
District 351,18220.90%1,45325.69%2,91148.4%1091.93%1,45825.78%5,655
District 361,48526.61%1,97935.46%2,03036.37%871.56%510.91%5,581
District 3759928.62%56326.90%90843.38%231.10%30914.76%2,093
District 3828915.17%26914.12%1,32769.66%201.05%1,03854.49%1,905
District 3963528.01%39117.25%1,18552.27%562.47%55024.26%2,267
District 4038926.46%30320.61%54937.35%22915.58%16010.88%1,470
Overseas voters13.13%26.25%2990.63%00.00%2784.38%32
Totals52,53627.85%58,33930.92%74,81739.66%2,9741.58%16,4788.73%188,666
Final round results by state house district
District[56][f]Mary Peltola
Democratic		Sarah Palin
Republican		Margin[e]Total active votes
#%#%#%
District 11,89449.17%1,95850.83%641.66%3,852
District 22,73959.34%1,87740.66%86218.67%4,616
District 34,25068.59%1,94631.41%2,30437.19%6,196
District 44,40879.74%1,12020.26%3,28859.48%5,528
District 52,12356.05%1,66543.95%45812.09%3,788
District 63,56250.10%3,54849.90%140.20%7,110
District 71,64333.34%3,28566.66%1,64233.32%4,928
District 81,82230.05%4,24169.95%2,41939.90%6,063
District 94,53658.81%3,17741.19%1,35917.62%7,713
District 102,66153.83%2,28246.17%3797.67%4,943
District 113,14854.23%2,65745.77%4918.46%5,805
District 122,69459.43%1,83940.57%85518.86%4,533
District 132,17257.07%1,63442.93%53814.14%3,806
District 143,01368.93%1,35831.07%1,65537.86%4,371
District 153,03155.99%2,38244.01%64911.99%5,413
District 163,84765.67%2,01134.33%1,83631.34%5,858
District 173,47576.12%1,09023.88%2,38552.25%4,565
District 1872758.39%51841.61%20916.79%1,245
District 191,67568.28%77831.72%89736.57%2,453
District 202,33163.64%1,33236.36%99927.27%3,663
District 212,96958.68%2,09141.32%87817.35%5,060
District 221,24053.54%1,07646.46%1647.08%2,316
District 232,57046.28%2,98353.72%4137.44%5,553
District 242,20340.27%3,26759.73%1,06419.45%5,470
District 252,12637.60%3,52962.40%1,40324.81%5,655
District 261,17525.63%3,40974.37%2,23448.73%4,584
District 271,15126.88%3,13173.12%1,98046.24%4,282
District 281,39729.23%3,38370.77%1,98641.55%4,780
District 291,85534.74%3,48465.26%1,62930.51%5,339
District 301,94234.88%3,62665.12%1,68430.24%5,568
District 311,75252.24%1,60247.76%1504.47%3,354
District 3277738.66%1,23361.34%45622.69%2,010
District 331,00626.18%2,83773.82%1,83147.65%3,843
District 342,47047.43%2,73852.57%2685.15%5,208
District 353,37362.13%2,05637.87%1,31724.26%5,429
District 362,46247.19%2,75552.81%2935.62%5,217
District 371,15759.79%77840.21%37919.59%1,935
District 381,49080.41%36319.59%1,12760.82%1,853
District 391,50774.35%52025.65%98748.69%2,027
District 4086365.13%46234.87%40130.26%1,325
Overseas voters2990.63%39.38%2681.25%32
Totals91,26548.4%86,02445.6%5,2412.96%177,289

Pairwise comparison edit

Pairwise comparison matrix[57][58]
BegichPeltolaPalin
Begich-88,126101,438
Peltola79,486-91,375
Palin63,66686,197-

The pairwise comparison shows that Begich is the Condorcet winner and Palin is both the Condorcet loser and a spoiler candidate:[58][59][60][61]

  • Begich preferred over Peltola by 52.6%
  • Begich preferred over Palin by 61.4%
  • Peltola preferred over Palin by 51.5%

See also edit

Wikinews has related news:

Notes edit

  1. ^ a b c d e f Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ withdrew from the general election following his victory in the primary
  3. ^ a b Hypothetical scenario with Palin and Peltola as the top two based on expressed ranked choice preferences
  4. ^ Hypothetical scenario with Claus and Palin as the top two based on expressed ranked choice preferences
  5. ^ a b Margin is the difference between the number of votes won by the winning candidate and the number of votes won by the candidate who won the second-largest number of votes.
  6. ^ Results from unofficial tabulation of the raw Cast Vote Record file.
Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b c This poll was sponsored by 314 Action, which supports Gross

References edit

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