2018 South Dakota gubernatorial election

The 2018 South Dakota gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next governor of South Dakota. Incumbent Republican governor Dennis Daugaard was term-limited and could not seek a third consecutive term.

2018 South Dakota gubernatorial election

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NomineeKristi NoemBillie Sutton
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Running mateLarry RhodenMichelle Lavallee
Popular vote172,912161,454
Percentage50.97%47.60%

Noem:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Sutton:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%

Governor before election

Dennis Daugaard
Republican

Elected Governor

Kristi Noem
Republican

Republican candidate Kristi Noem won against Democratic candidate Billie Sutton in the closest gubernatorial election in South Dakota since 1986.[1] Noem also became the first female governor of the state.[2] Her victory extended the longest active hold on a governorship by one party; the GOP has won every gubernatorial election in South Dakota starting in 1978. Conversely, Noem's vote percentage of 51% was the worst performance for any Republican gubernatorial candidate in the state since 1978, while Sutton's 47.6% was the best for any Democratic candidate since 1986.

Republican primary edit

Candidates edit

Declared edit

Failed to qualify for Primary Ballot edit

Declined edit

Debates edit

Jackley and Noem participated in three debates.

First Debate edit

In the first debate both candidates tried to define the other. Jackley stated: “It’s Washington experience versus South Dakota experience.” “Marty’s background has been being a government lawyer,” Noem said.[12]

Second Debate edit

In the second debate, Noem discussed Jackley’s scandals. “In EB5, the state oversight program, nobody went to jail. On Gear-Up, still, nobody’s been punished. When we talk about what’s been going on in Brookings with the Global Aquaponics scam—a con artist, Tobias Ritesman, held a fundraiser for Marty Jackley. Marty attended his phony groundbreaking for his phony project,” Noem says. “People lost hundreds of thousands of dollars. Still, nobody’s been investigated and nobody’s been prosecuted. That needs to change in our state.”

Jackley was on the defensive during the second debate. “Congresswoman, he didn’t hold a fundraiser for me. I was at an event that he was at, and I did go to a ground breaking because that’s what important in South Dakota,” Jackley says. “When we have businesses expanding I think it’s important that we attend those. You talk about Gear-Up, there hasn’t been a sentencing because these defendants are presumed innocent. But I as attorney general, unlike Washington, have done something about it. I actually formed a grand jury. Indictments have been issued. They’re schedule to begin jury trials in July—or, excuse me—June, June 26th and I plan on trying those personally, because that’s what a leader does.” [13]

Final Debate edit

In the final debate, Jackley and Noem took tough questions about workforce development, anti-discrimination laws, drugs, uniting Democrats and Republicans in the state to make critical decisions and much more.While they spent a lot of time talking about their plans for the state, they also spent a lot of time attacking each others' records.A major topic of contention was Boards and commissions. The state currently has 134 of them. Noem said she wants to streamline different processes for licensure, eliminating "red tape" but Jackley disagreed."Every time that a proposal comes forward to create a new 'blue ribbon' task force, a board or a commission, what typically comes with that is another layer of bureaucracy," Noem said.Jackley defended the government bureaucracy. "We need a governor that understands that various different boards, isn't out there criticizing different boards and saying that type of service isn't important," Jackley said.Jackley spoke about putting together a task force to work on government transparency and open records laws."I'm committed when I become governor to put forth a taskforce ...because we need to take a look at the open records law," he said.And they both ended the debate with another jab at one another."It really comes to down to Washington experience versus South Dakota experience," Jackley said. "The congresswoman has been spending considerable time and effort talking about Marty Jackley, but I'm talking about you, South Dakota." "Days ago he stood up and talked about protecting victims while behind the scenes he was actively working to silence one to further his political career," Noem said. "You deserve a governor who will be honest with you, who will tell you the truth and who is willing to be accountable." [14]

Polling edit

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Kristi
Noem
Marty
Jackley
Lora
Hubbel[15]
Terry
LaFleur[15]
Undecided
Mason-Dixon Archived 2018-05-30 at the Wayback MachineMay 21–23, 2018625± 4.5%45%44%11%
Leverage Public StrategiesMay 4–7, 2018350± 5.2%38%39%24%
Clout Research (R)April 21–23, 2018815± 3.4%49%37%14%
Rockbridge Strategy (R)April 4, 2018500± 2.9%44%33%23%
Moore InformationFebruary 8, 2018300± 6.0%40%35%5%2%18%
New Age Consultants (R-LaFleur) Archived 2017-12-22 at the Wayback MachineNovember 3, 2017509± 4.4%22%24%3%51%

Results edit

Results by county
  Noem
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Jackley
  •   50–60%
Republican primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanKristi Noem 57,437 56.0%
RepublicanMarty Jackley45,06944.0%
Total votes102,506 100.0%

Democratic primary edit

Candidates edit

Declared edit

Declined edit

Libertarian Party edit

Candidates edit

Declared edit

Results edit

Libertarian convention delegate vote results[23]
PartyCandidateVotes%
LibertarianKurt Evans 10 66.7%
LibertarianC.J. Abernathey533.3%
Total votes15 100.0%

Constitution Party edit

Following an internal controversy within the Constitution Party of South Dakota over who was the legal party chair, Dan Lederman—individually and in his capacity as chair of the South Dakota Republican Party—sued Republican secretary of state Shantel Krebs to prevent her from certifying any Constitution Party nominees for the general-election ballot. For somewhat complex reasons, state circuit judge Patricia DeVaney ruled in favor of the Republican Party on August 17.[24][25]

G. Matt Johnson and Lora Hubbel—Constitution Party nominees for the state's at-large U.S. House seat and governor respectively—then sued Krebs in federal court on August 29 seeking ballot access for themselves and four other Constitution Party nominees. For various procedural reasons, federal district judge Roberto Lange ruled against the Constitution Party on October 1.[26][27][28]

Candidates edit

Declared edit

Withdrawn edit

Independents edit

Candidates edit

Declined edit

General election edit

Candidates edit

Predictions edit

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[35]TossupOctober 26, 2018
The Washington Post[36]TossupNovember 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[37]Lean RNovember 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[38]Tilt RNovember 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[39]Lean RNovember 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[40]TossupNovember 4, 2018
Daily Kos[41]Lean RNovember 5, 2018
Fox News[42][a]Lean RNovember 5, 2018
Politico[43]TossupNovember 5, 2018
Governing[44]TossupNovember 5, 2018
Notes
  1. ^ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Endorsements edit

Kristi Noem (R)
Federal officials
State officials
Individuals
Organizations
Billie Sutton (D)
Federal officials
State officials
County and local officials
Labor unions
  • South Dakota Education Association[55]
Organizations
  • Great Plains Tribal Chairman's Association[56]
Newspapers

Polling edit

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Kristi
Noem (R)
Billie
Sutton (D)
Kurt
Evans (L)
OtherUndecided
Change ResearchNovember 2–4, 201885145%51%2%
Emerson CollegeNovember 1–4, 2018514± 4.5%48%47%1%5%
Mason-DixonOctober 29–31, 2018500± 4.5%47%44%1%8%
Mason-DixonOctober 18–22, 2018500± 4.5%45%45%1%9%
ALG Research (D-Sutton)September 20–24, 2018500± 4.4%42%45%3%10%
ALG Research (D-Sutton)July 19–25, 2018500± 4.4%46%42%13%
ALG Research (D-Sutton)October 4–9, 2017[59]500± 4.4%53%40%

Results edit

South Dakota gubernatorial election, 2018[60]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
RepublicanKristi Noem 172,912 50.97% -19.50%
DemocraticBillie Sutton161,45447.60%+22.17%
LibertarianKurt Evans4,8481.43%N/A
Total votes339,214 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

Results by County edit

CountyKristi Noem

Larry Rhoden

Republican

Billie Sutton

Michelle Lavallee

Democratic

Kurt Evans

Richard Shelatz

Libertarian

Total

votes

%#%#%#
Aurora50.31%64447.42%6072.27%291,280
Beadle52.09%3,18246.37%2,8321.54%946,108
Bennett50.18%55347.46%5232.36%261,102
Bon Homme47.43%1,30351.26%1,4081.31%362,747
Brookings44.35%5,22554.09%6,3721.55%18311,780
Brown47.48%6,82151.08%7,3381.44%20614,365
Brule51.78%1,10346.53%9911.69%362,130
Buffalo25.18%13873.54%4031.28%7548
Butte65.78%2,50532.41%1,2341.81%693,808
Campbell75.14%55023.63%1731.23%9732
Charles Mix46.76%1,66152.17%1,8531.07%383,552
Clark52.82%87946.15%7681.02%171,664
Clay33.42%1,55265.44%3,0391.14%534,644
Codington54.85%5,86543.93%4,6971.22%13110,693
Corson38.38%42660.09%6671.53%171,110
Custer63.26%2,78935.09%1,5471.65%734,409
Davison51.95%3,77946.71%3,3981.33%977,274
Day43.46%1,20755.13%1,5311.40%392,777
Deuel52.94%1,05344.90%8932.16%431,989
Dewey21.35%39377.68%1,4300.97%181,841
Douglas74.87%1,12024.26%3630.87%131,496
Edmunds59.60%1,01839.29%6711.11%191,708
Fall River64.51%2,05933.36%1,0652.13%683,192
Faulk62.70%67436.09%3881.21%131,075
Grant55.28%1,78043.11%1,3881.61%523,220
Gregory51.42%1,10747.79%1,0290.79%172,153
Haakon77.67%73420.74%1961.59%15945
Hamlin64.95%1,76433.98%9231.07%292,716
Hand57.16%95041.10%6831.74%291,662
Hanson58.69%94540.19%6471.12%181,610
Harding73.62%50525.36%1741.31%9686
Hughes46.82%3,74951.75%4,1441.42%1148,007
Hutchinson63.28%2,08235.87%1,1800.85%283,290
Hyde61.67%40737.57%2480.76%5660
Jackson51.97%51346.00%4542.03%20987
Jerauld51.79%47846.91%4331.30%12923
Jones66.12%36131.68%1732.20%12546
Kingsbury53.08%1,30345.25%1,1111.67%412,455
Lake47.69%2,48351.26%2,6691.05%555,207
Lawrence54.91%5,98442.90%4,6752.19%23910,898
Lincoln53.27%12,89445.89%11,1090.84%20324,206
Lyman49.36%69148.71%6821.93%271,400
Marshall43.15%85355.28%1,0931.57%311,977
McCook55.07%1,37543.37%1,0831.56%392,497
McPherson69.16%72929.32%3091.52%161,054
Meade62.70%6,41334.80%3,5592.50%25610,228
Mellette42.05%29955.56%3952.39%17711
Miner47.33%52351.58%5701.09%121,105
Minnehaha45.78%32,35552.98%37,4501.24%87670,681
Moody46.97%1,34051.49%1,4691.54%442,853
Oglala Lakota7.05%21491.50%2,7781.45%443,036
Pennington55.06%22,94443.17%17,9881.77%73841,670
Perkins70.91%95327.38%3681.71%231,344
Potter67.91%82130.85%3731.24%151,209
Roberts43.87%1,64355.06%2,0621.07%403,745
Sanborn57.68%59340.76%4191.56%161,028
Spink49.02%1,37649.66%1,3941.32%372,807
Stanley51.24%76247.35%7041.41%211,487
Sully61.58%50036.45%2961.97%16812
Todd17.40%39081.70%1,8310.90%202,241
Tripp57.45%1,43041.10%1,0231.45%362,489
Turner58.75%2,27240.24%1,5561.01%393,867
Union60.85%4,06838.06%2,5441.09%736,685
Walworth64.98%1,46833.29%7521.73%392,259
Yankton45.73%4,12152.78%4,7571.49%1349,012
Ziebach29.32%24169.59%5721.09%9822
Total50.97%172,91247.60%161,4541.43%4,848339,214

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic edit

References edit

  1. ^ Ellis, Jonathon (November 6, 2018). "Yes, South Dakota has had close governor races, but it's been awhile". Argus Leader. Retrieved November 8, 2018.
  2. ^ Nord, James (January 5, 2019). "Kristi Noem sworn in as South Dakota's 1st female governor". AP.
  3. ^ Tan, Tiffany (February 5, 2016). "Noem open to running for governor". Rapid City Journal. Retrieved June 14, 2016.
  4. ^ Hagen, Lisa (November 14, 2016). "South Dakota rep. launches gubernatorial bid". The Hill. Retrieved November 14, 2016.
  5. ^ "Marty Jackley moves $700K toward governor run". Argus Leader. Retrieved December 4, 2016.
  6. ^ "SD Attorney General Marty Jackley Jumps into 2018 Governors Race | Radio 570 WNAX". Radio 570 WNAX. Retrieved December 4, 2016.
  7. ^ a b Epp, Todd (March 27, 2018). "UPDATE: Who is officially on ballot for Governor, House? Hubbel running as independent". KELO Newstalk. Archived from the original on August 12, 2018. Retrieved June 5, 2018.
  8. ^ Dockendorf, Randy (March 31, 2017). "Michels Says He Won't Run For Governor". Yankton Daily Press & Dakotan. Retrieved March 31, 2017.
  9. ^ Ellis, Jonathan (February 14, 2015). "Noem, Mickelson, Jackley eye governor". Argus Leader. Retrieved June 14, 2016.
  10. ^ Holland, Jim (April 16, 2016). "Mark Mickelson visit could presage run for the governorship". Rapid City Journal. Retrieved June 14, 2016.
  11. ^ "Mark Mickelson Says He Won't Run For Governor In 2018". KELOLAND News. Archived from the original on May 23, 2018. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
  12. ^ "Jackley and Noem battle in TV debate". capjournal.com. May 28, 2018. Retrieved July 6, 2021.
  13. ^ "GOP Governor Candidates Spar Over Transparency During SDPB TV Debate". sdpb.org. May 30, 2018. Retrieved July 6, 2021.
  14. ^ "Jackley, Noem face-off in final contentious debate before primary election". dakotanewsnow.com. May 31, 2018. Retrieved July 6, 2021.
  15. ^ a b hypothetical Republican candidate, seeking Constitution Party nomination
  16. ^ Ferguson, Dana (May 31, 2017). "Democrats, Sutton enter South Dakota governor race". Argus Leader. Retrieved May 31, 2017.
  17. ^ Woster, Kevin (October 3, 2015). "Disaffected Democrats ready to return to Herseth Sandlin — in the governor's race". KELO-TV. Archived from the original on August 19, 2016. Retrieved June 14, 2016.
  18. ^ Raposa, Megan (February 23, 2017). "Herseth Sandlin: 'I am done seeking political office'". Argus Leader. Retrieved April 1, 2017.
  19. ^ Ellis, Jonathan (November 5, 2015). "Mayor says he'll need 'suicide watch' when term ends". Argus Leader. Retrieved June 14, 2016.
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  21. ^ a b Anderson, Patrick (December 19, 2016). "Huether dumps Dems amid speculation of statewide run". Argus Leader. Retrieved April 1, 2017.
  22. ^ a b Bardash, Ellen (May 21, 2018). "Evans announces run for Libertarian Party nomination". Mitchell Daily Republic. Retrieved July 18, 2018.
  23. ^ Heidelberger, Cory (June 10, 2018). "Libertarian Party Resets, Picks Evans over Abernathey for Governor". Dakota Free Press. Retrieved July 18, 2018.
  24. ^ a b c d e Epp, Todd (August 15, 2018). "Constitution Party has two gubernatorial candidates--for now". KELO Newstalk. Archived from the original on November 11, 2018. Retrieved October 5, 2018.
  25. ^ Askins, Dave (August 19, 2018). "Libertarians listed first on South Dakota ballots". Pierre Capital Journal. Retrieved October 5, 2018.
  26. ^ Peters, Anna (August 30, 2018). "South Dakota Candidates File Lawsuit To Get On November Ballot". KELO-TV. Retrieved October 5, 2018.
  27. ^ Mallory, Brady (September 27, 2018). "Federal Judge Hears Constitution Party Members' Lawsuit". KELO-TV. Archived from the original on September 28, 2018. Retrieved October 5, 2018.
  28. ^ Winger, Richard (October 3, 2018). "South Dakota Constitution Party Asks Federal Court to Put Its Nominees on Ballot and to Resolve Intra-Party Dispute, but Court Declines". Ballot Access News. Retrieved October 5, 2018.
  29. ^ Heidelberger, Cory (June 17, 2018). "Gortmaker Challenges LaFleur for Constitution Party Nomination for Governor". Dakota Free Press. Retrieved September 28, 2018.
  30. ^ Sneve, Joe (March 7, 2017). "Huether moves hint at 2018 run". Argus Leader. Retrieved April 1, 2017.
  31. ^ Collen, Courtney (March 23, 2017). "Sitting down with Mayor Mike and Cindy Huether Sitting down with Mike and Cindy Huether". KSFY. Retrieved April 1, 2017.
  32. ^ Ferguson, Dana (June 20, 2018). "Kristi Noem names long-time state lawmaker Larry Rhoden as running mate". Argus Leader. Retrieved October 6, 2018.
  33. ^ Ferguson, Dana (June 14, 2018). "Billie Sutton names running mate right before SD Democractic Party meet in Sioux Falls". Argus Leader. Retrieved October 6, 2018.
  34. ^ Venhuizen, Tony (June 10, 2018). "Libertarians and the modern history of minor party candidates for SD Governor". SoDak Governors. Retrieved October 6, 2018.
  35. ^ "2018 Governor Race Ratings for October 26, 2018". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved April 10, 2021.
  36. ^ "The Washington Post's gubernatorial race ratings". The Washington Post. October 16, 2018.
  37. ^ "2018 Governor Forecast | FiveThirtyEight". FiveThirtyEight. October 17, 2018. Retrieved October 17, 2018.
  38. ^ "2018 Gubernatorial Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved November 15, 2017.
  39. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 Governor". www.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved November 15, 2017.
  40. ^ "2018 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics. October 9, 2018.
  41. ^ "2018 Governor Race Ratings". Daily Kos. June 5, 2018.[permanent dead link]
  42. ^ "2018 Midterm Power Ranking". Fox News. May 16, 2023.
  43. ^ "Politico Race Ratings". Politico.
  44. ^ "2018 Governor Elections: As November Nears, More Governors' Races Become Tossups". www.governing.com. Archived from the original on October 21, 2018. Retrieved July 18, 2018.
  45. ^ "Trump endorses Noem in South Dakota". The Washington Post. September 7, 2018. Archived from the original on September 8, 2018.
  46. ^ Mike Pence. "PROUD to stand with @KristiNoem - the next Governor of the Great State of South Dakota! Go vote @KristiNoem tomorrow!". Twitter.
  47. ^ a b c d Tupper, Seth (October 23, 2018). "Four days after saying he was undecided, Jackley endorses Noem". Rapid City Journal. Archived from the original on October 23, 2018.(subscription required)
  48. ^ Ivanka Trump. "I appreciate the great work of @RepKristiNoem to deliver massive tax cuts + much needed relief to hard working American families! She is a tireless champion for the great people of South Dakota! VOTE for Kristi Noem for Governor!". Twitter.
  49. ^ "SD RIGHT TO LIFE ENDORSES NOEM". Kristi for Governor. August 29, 2018. Archived from the original on November 6, 2018. Retrieved November 6, 2018.
  50. ^ "Your Freedom is Under Attack! Vote On or Before November 6th!". nrapvf.org. NRA-PVF. Archived from the original on July 21, 2021. Retrieved July 24, 2023. don't forget to vote Kristi Noem for Governor!
  51. ^ "NRA endorses Kristi Noem for governor". KSFY. September 24, 2018. Archived from the original on September 24, 2018.
  52. ^ Mearhoff, Sarah (October 25, 2018). "SD bombshell: Poll shows governor's race dead heat in deep red state". The Globe. Archived from the original on November 4, 2018. Retrieved November 2, 2018.
  53. ^ "Sutton Picks Up Republican Endorsements". KDLT. October 25, 2018. Archived from the original on November 5, 2018. Retrieved November 2, 2018.
  54. ^ a b c d e f g h i j Mercer, Bob (October 30, 2018). "Election Analysis: Democrats Seeking Republican Votes". KELO. Nexstar Media Group.
  55. ^ Royal, Allison (September 11, 2018). "South Dakota Education Association Endorses Billie Sutton - KDLT". KDLT. KDLT-TV. Archived from the original on September 13, 2018. Retrieved September 13, 2018.
  56. ^ "Sutton Gathers Input from Nine Tribes; Receives Endorsement of Tribal Chairmen | Lakota Country Times". www.lakotacountrytimes.com. Lakota Country Times. September 6, 2018.
  57. ^ "Editorial: Billie Sutton makes sense for South Dakota". Argus Leader. Argus Leader. October 18, 2018.
  58. ^ "OURS: Journal endorses Sutton for governor". Rapid City Journal. Rapid City Journal. October 19, 2018.
  59. ^ Mehta, Aaron Bycoffe, Ritchie King and Dhrumil (June 28, 2018). "South Dakota Governor Polls". FiveThirtyEight.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  60. ^ "South Dakota Secretary of State" (PDF). sdsos.gov.

External links edit

Official campaign websites