2016 United States House of Representatives elections in Minnesota

The 2016 United States House of Representatives elections in Minnesota were held on November 8, 2016, to elect the eight U.S. representatives from the state of Minnesota, one from each of the state's eight congressional districts. The elections coincided with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections. The primaries were held on August 9.

2016 United States House of Representatives elections in Minnesota

← 2014November 8, 2016 (2016-11-08)2018 →

All 8 Minnesota seats to the United States House of Representatives
 Majority partyMinority party
 
PartyDemocratic (DFL)Republican
Last election53
Seats won53
Seat changeSteadySteady
Popular vote1,434,5901,334,686
Percentage50.23%46.73%
SwingIncrease 0.03%Increase 0.20%

This is the last cycle where the Democrat candidate would win either the 1st or 8th district and the last cycle Republicans candidate would win either the 2nd or 3rd district.

Overview

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Statewide

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United States House of Representatives elections in Minnesota, 2016[1]
PartyVotesPercentageSeats beforeSeats after+/–
Democratic (DFL)1,434,55950.20%55-
Republican1,334,67946.70%33-
Legal Marijuana Now57,9112.02%00-
Independence28,8701.01%00-
Others4,3700.15%00-
Totals2,860,389100.00%88

District

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Results of the 2016 United States House of Representatives elections in Minnesota by district:

DistrictDemocraticRepublicanOthersTotalResult
Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%
District 1169,07450.34%166,52649.58%2770.08%335,600100.00%Democratic hold
District 2167,31545.16%173,97046.95%29,2297.89%370,514100.00%Republican hold
District 3169,24343.01%223,07756.70%1,1440.29%393,464100.00%Republican hold
District 4203,29957.76%121,03234.39%27,6137.85%351,944100.00%Democratic hold
District 5249,96469.07%80,66022.29%31,2588.64%361,882100.00%Democratic hold
District 6123,00834.27%235,38065.58%5360.15%358,924100.00%Republican hold
District 7173,58952.47%156,95247.44%3070.09%330,848100.00%Democratic hold
District 8179,09850.17%177,08949.61%7920.22%356,979100.00%Democratic hold
Total1,434,55950.15%1,334,67946.66%91,1513.19%2,860,389100.00%

District 1

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2016 Minnesota's 1st congressional district election

← 2014
2018 →
 
NomineeTim WalzJim Hagedorn
PartyDemocratic (DFL)Republican
Popular vote169,074166,526
Percentage50.3%49.6%


Walz:      50–60%
Hagedorn:      50–60%      60–70%

Walz:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Hagedorn:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%
     No votes

U.S. Representative before election

Tim Walz
Democratic (DFL)

Elected U.S. Representative

Tim Walz
Democratic (DFL)

Incumbent Democrat Tim Walz, who had represented the district since 2007, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 54% of the vote in 2014. The district had a PVI of R+1.

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Nominee
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Results

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Democratic primary results[2]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic (DFL)Tim Walz (incumbent) 13,538 100.0
Total votes13,538 100.0

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Nominee
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Eliminated in primary
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  • Steve Williams

Results

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Republican primary results[2]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanJim Hagedorn 10,851 76.5
RepublicanSteve Williams3,33023.5
Total votes14,181 100.0

General election

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Endorsements

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Results

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Minnesota's 1st congressional district, 2016[6]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic (DFL)Tim Walz (incumbent) 169,074 50.3
RepublicanJim Hagedorn166,52649.6
Write-in2770.1
Total votes335,877 100.0
Democratic (DFL) hold

District 2

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2016 Minnesota's 2nd congressional district election

← 2014
2018 →
 
NomineeJason LewisAngie CraigPaula Overby
PartyRepublicanDemocratic (DFL)Independence
Popular vote173,970167,31528,869
Percentage46.9%45.2%7.8%

Precinct results
Lewis:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Craig:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%

U.S. Representative before election

John Kline
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Jason Lewis
Republican

Incumbent Republican John Kline, who had represented the district since 2003, announced that he would not seek re-election.[7] He was re-elected with 56% of the vote in 2014. The district had a PVI of R+2.

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Nominee
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Eliminated in primary
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Withdrawn
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  • David Benson-Staebler, political consultant, former Democratic congressional aide, and real estate agent[12][13]
  • David Gerson, engineer and candidate in 2012 and 2014[14][15]
  • Pam Myhra, former state representative and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2014[16]
Declined
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Endorsements

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David Gerson (withdrawn)
Organizations
John Howe
Jason Lewis
State legislators
Organizations
Individuals
Darlene Miller
Organizations

Debate

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2016 Minnesota's 2nd congressional district republican primary debate
No.DateHostModeratorLinkRepublicanRepublicanRepublicanRepublicanRepublican
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Not invited   I  Invited  W  Withdrawn
David Benson-StaeblerDavid GersonJohn HoweJason LewisPam Myhra
1[33]Nov. 19, 2015Republicans in Senate District 52YouTubePPPPP

Results

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Republican primary results[2]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanJason Lewis 11,641 48.9
RepublicanDarlene Miller7,30530.7
RepublicanJohn Howe3,24413.6
RepublicanMatthew D. Erickson1,6126.8
Total votes23,802 100.0

Democratic primary

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Democrat Angela Craig, who served as vice president of global human resources for St. Jude Medical, resigned from her position in January 2015 to challenge Lewis.[34] Mary Lawrence, a doctor, also ran as a Democrat,[35] but dropped out before the primary.

Candidates

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Nominee
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Withdrawn
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  • Roger Kittelson, dairy marketing specialist, nominee for WI-06 in 2008 and candidate for Minnesota House of Representatives in 1982 and 2014[38][39]
  • Mary Lawrence, ophthalmologist[40][41][42]
Declined
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Results

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Democratic primary results[2]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic (DFL)Angie Craig 15,155 100.0
Total votes15,155 100.0

Independence primary

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Candidates

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Nominee
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  • Paula Overby, quality assurance analyst and nominee for this seat in 2014

General election

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Campaign

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Commentators wrote that the election was "likely to be one of the most-watched congressional races in the country," (MinnPost[45]), "expected to be one of the most competitive in the country", according to Roll Call newspaper,[46] and "seen as a prime target for Democrats to flip" according to The Atlantic.[47]

Area left-wing weekly City Pages described the campaign as resembling the 2016 presidential campaign, calling Lewis "an entrepreneur and media personality, whose blunt rhetoric is refreshingly honest to some, simply offensive to others", and describing Craig as "a tough female leader with moderate positions, ties to big business, and a penchant for pantsuits".[48]

In May 2016, the Rothenberg and Gonzales Political Report changed its rating of the race from "pure tossup" to "tossup/tilt Democratic,"[49] with political analyst Nathan Gonzales writing that Craig "is probably to the left of the district in her ideology, but she has a good story to tell, is raising considerable money (she had $1.3 million in the bank at the end of March) and is solid as a candidate."[49] Other political prognosticators rated the race "Republican Toss-up" (Charlie Cook), and "pure" toss-up (Larry Sabato's "Crystal Ball"), according to MinnPost.[49]

Endorsements

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Jason Lewis (R)
State legislators
Organizations
Individuals
Angie Craig (D)
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State legislators
Labor unions
Organizations
Local officials
  • Ann Counihan, South St. Paul School Board member[55]
  • Mike Engel, Mayor of Kenyon[55]
  • Debbie Goettel, Mayor of Richfield[62]
  • Matt Klein, ISD 197 School Board member[55]

Debates

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Polling

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Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jason
Lewis (R)
Angie
Craig (D)
Paula
Overby (I)
Undecided
SurveyUSAOctober 13–16, 2016600± 4.1%41%46%12%
WPA Opinion Research (R-NRCC)October 9–10, 2016400± 4.9%36%33%26%
Gerstein Bocian Agne Strategies (D-Craig)August 13–16, 2016500± 4.4%42%43%9%6%
WPA Opinion Research (R-Lewis/NRCC) August 14–15, 2016400± 4.9%39%27%7%25%

Predictions

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SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[64]TossupNovember 7, 2016
Daily Kos Elections[65]TossupNovember 7, 2016
Rothenberg[66]Tilt D (flip)November 3, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[67]Lean D (flip)November 7, 2016
RCP[68]Lean D (flip)October 31, 2016

Results

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Lewis ended up defeating Craig by several thousand votes.[69]

Minnesota's 2nd congressional district, 2016 [6]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanJason Lewis 173,970 46.9
Democratic (DFL)Angie Craig167,31545.2
IndependencePaula Overby28,8697.8
Write-in3600.1
Total votes370,514 100.0
Republican hold

District 3

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2016 Minnesota's 3rd congressional district election

← 2014
2018 →
 
NomineeErik PaulsenTerri Bonoff
PartyRepublicanDemocratic (DFL)
Popular vote223,077169,243
Percentage56.7%43.0%

Precinct results
Paulsen:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Bonoff:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
     No votes

U.S. Representative before election

Erik Paulsen
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Erik Paulsen
Republican

Incumbent Republican Erik Paulsen, who had represented the district since 2009, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 62% of the vote in 2014. The district had a PVI of R+2.

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Nominee
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Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Nominee
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Withdrawn
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General election

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Endorsements

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Debates

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Polling

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Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Erik
Paulsen (R)
Terri
Bonoff (D)
Undecided
SurveyUSAOctober 10–13, 2016579± 4.2%49%38%13%
Clarity Campaign Lab (D-House Majority PAC)September 11–13, 2016353± 4.34%45%42%13%
DCCC (D)September 12, 2016353± 5.2%38%40%22%
Newton Heath LLC (R-AAN)August 9–11, 2016402± 4.9%57%31%12%
Victoria Research & Consulting (D-Bonoff)June 27–30, 2016400± 4.9%45%45%10%

Predictions

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SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[64]Lean RNovember 7, 2016
Daily Kos Elections[65]Lean RNovember 7, 2016
Rothenberg[66]Likely RNovember 3, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[67]Lean RNovember 7, 2016
RCP[68]Lean ROctober 31, 2016

Results

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Minnesota's 3rd congressional district, 2016 [6]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanErik Paulsen (incumbent) 223,077 56.7
Democratic (DFL)Terri Bonoff169,24343.0
Write-in1,1440.3
Total votes393,464 100.0
Republican hold

District 4

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2016 Minnesota's 4th congressional district election

← 2014
2018 →
 
NomineeBetty McCollumGreg RyanSusan Pendergast Sindt
PartyDemocratic (DFL)RepublicanLegal Marijuana Now
Popular vote203,299121,03227,152
Percentage57.8%34.4%7.7%

Precinct results
McCollum:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Ryan:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%
     No votes

U.S. Representative before election

Betty McCollum
Democratic (DFL)

Elected U.S. Representative

Betty McCollum
Democratic (DFL)

Incumbent Democrat Betty McCollum, who had represented the district since 2001, ran for re-election. She was re-elected with 61% of the vote in 2014. The district had a PVI of D+11.

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Nominee
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Eliminated in primary
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  • Steve Carlson

Results

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Democratic primary election [2]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic (DFL)Betty McCollum (incumbent) 33,336 94.0
Democratic (DFL)Steve Carlson2,1286.0
Total votes35,464 100.0

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Nominee
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  • Greg Ryan, businessman
Eliminated in primary
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  • Gene Rechtzigel
  • Nikolay Nikolayevich Bey

Results

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Republican primary results [2]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanGreg Ryan 5,618 82.0
RepublicanGene Rechtzigel84512.3
RepublicanNikolay Nikolayevich Bey3905.7
Total votes6,853 100.0

General election

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Endorsements

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Results

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Minnesota's 4th congressional district, 2016 [6]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic (DFL)Betty McCollum (incumbent) 203,299 57.8
RepublicanGreg Ryan121,03234.4
Legal Marijuana NowSusan Pendergast Sindt27,1527.7
Write-in4610.1
Total votes351,944 100.0
Democratic (DFL) hold

District 5

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2016 Minnesota's 5th congressional district election

← 2014
2018 →
 
NomineeKeith EllisonFrank Nelson DrakeDennis Schuller
PartyDemocratic (DFL)RepublicanLegal Marijuana Now
Popular vote249,96480,66030,759
Percentage69.1%22.3%8.5%

Precinct results
Ellison:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Drake:      40–50%      50–60%
     No votes

U.S. Representative before election

Keith Ellison
Democratic (DFL)

Elected U.S. Representative

Keith Ellison
Democratic (DFL)

Incumbent Democrat Keith Ellison, who had represented the district since 2007, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 71% of the vote in 2014. The district had a PVI of D+71.

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Nominee
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Eliminated in primary
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  • Lee Bauer
  • Gregg Iverson, perennial candidate

Results

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Democratic primary results[2]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic (DFL)Keith Ellison (incumbent) 40,380 91.7
Democratic (DFL)Gregg Iverson1,8874.3
Democratic (DFL)Lee Bauer1,7574.0
Total votes44,024 100.0

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Nominee
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  • Frank Nelson Drake, real estate investor

Results

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Republican primary results[2]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanFrank Nelson Drake 4,177 100.0
Total votes4,177 100.0
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Candidates

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Nominee
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  • Dennis Schuller

General election

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Endorsements

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Results

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Minnesota's 5th congressional district, 2016 [6]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic (DFL)Keith Ellison (incumbent) 249,964 69.1
RepublicanFrank Nelson Drake80,66022.3
Legal Marijuana NowDennis Schuller30,7598.5
Write-in4990.1
Total votes361,875 100.0
Democratic (DFL) hold

District 6

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2016 Minnesota's 6th congressional district election

← 2014
2018 →
 
NomineeTom EmmerDavid Snyder
PartyRepublicanDemocratic (DFL)
Popular vote235,380123,008
Percentage65.6%34.3%

Precinct results
Emmer:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Snyder:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      >90%
     No votes

U.S. Representative before election

Tom Emmer
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Tom Emmer
Republican

Incumbent Republican Tom Emmer, who had represented the district since 2015, ran for re-election. He was elected with 56% of the vote in 2014. The district had a PVI of R+10.

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Nominee
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Eliminated in primary
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  • A.J. Kern
  • Patrick Munro

Endorsements

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Tom Emmer

Results

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Republican primary results[2]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanTom Emmer (incumbent) 13,590 68.7
RepublicanA. J. Kern5,21926.4
RepublicanPatrick Munro9624.9
Total votes19,771 100.0

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Nominee
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  • David Snyder, Army veteran
Eliminated in primary
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  • Judy Evelyn Adams
  • Bob Helland, business process analyst and Independence nominee for secretary of state in 2014

Results

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Democratic primary results [2]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic (DFL)David Snyder 4,402 46.0
Democratic (DFL)Judy Evelyn Adams3,56937.3
Democratic (DFL)Bob Helland1,59516.7
Total votes9,566 100.0

General election

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Endorsements

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Results

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Minnesota's 6th congressional district election, 2016 [6]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanTom Emmer (incumbent) 235,380 65.6
Democratic (DFL)David Snyder123,00834.3
Write-in5360.1
Total votes358,924 100.0
Republican hold

District 7

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2016 Minnesota's 7th congressional district election

← 2014
2018 →
 
NomineeCollin PetersonDavid Hughes
PartyDemocratic (DFL)Republican
Popular vote173,589156,952
Percentage52.5%47.4%


Peterson:      50–60%      60–70%      70-80%
Hughes:      50-60%      60–70%

Peterson:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Hughes:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%
     No votes

U.S. Representative before election

Collin Peterson
Democratic (DFL)

Elected U.S. Representative

Collin Peterson
Democratic (DFL)

Incumbent Democrat Collin Peterson, who had represented the district since 1991, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 54% of the vote in 2014. The district had a PVI of R+6.

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Nominee
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Results

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Democratic primary results[2]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic (DFL)Collin Peterson (incumbent) 16,253 100.0
Total votes16,253 100.0

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Nominee
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  • Dave Hughes, U.S. Air Force veteran
Eliminated in primary
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  • Amanda Lynn Hinson, entrepreneur, writer, and former pastor

Results

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Republican primary results[2]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanDave Hughes 8,769 59.0
RepublicanAmanda Lynn Hinson6,10441.0
Total votes14,873 100.0

General election

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Endorsements

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Results

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Minnesota's 7th congressional district, 2016 [6]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic (DFL)Collin Peterson (incumbent) 173,589 52.5
RepublicanDave Hughes156,95247.4
Write-in3070.1
Total votes330,848 100.0
Democratic (DFL) hold

District 8

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2016 Minnesota's 8th congressional district election

← 2014
2018 →
 
NomineeRick NolanStewart Mills
PartyDemocratic (DFL)Republican
Popular vote179,098177,089
Percentage50.2%49.6%


Nolan:      50–60%      60–70%

Mills:      50-60%      60-70%

Nolan:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Mills:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%
     No votes

U.S. Representative before election

Rick Nolan
Democratic (DFL)

Elected U.S. Representative

Rick Nolan
Democratic (DFL)

Incumbent Democrat Rick Nolan, who had represented the district since 2013, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 49% of the vote in 2014. The district had a PVI of D+1.

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Nominee
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Republican primary

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Candidates

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Nominee
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General election

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Endorsements

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Debate

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2016 Minnesota's 8th congressional district debate
No.DateHostModeratorLinkDemocraticRepublican
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Not invited   I  Invited  W  Withdrawn
Rick NolanStewart Mills
1Oct. 23, 2016KSTP-TVLeah McLeanC-SPANPP

Polling

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Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Rick
Nolan (D)
Stewart
Mills (R)
Undecided
SurveyUSAOctober 16–19, 2016595± 4.1%41%45%14%

Predictions

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SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[64]TossupNovember 7, 2016
Daily Kos Elections[65]TossupNovember 7, 2016
Rothenberg[66]Lean DNovember 3, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[67]Lean DNovember 7, 2016
RCP[68]Tossup DOctober 31, 2016

Results

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Though Nolan's margin of victory (2,009 votes) was too large to trigger a publicly funded automatic recount, Mills, as of late November 2016, said that he planned to request and pay for a hand recount of all votes cast in the eighth district, as is his right under law. Mills planned to cover the cost of the recount—just over $100,000— himself. According to the Minneapolis Star Tribune, Minnesota had not seen a recount in a race for the House of Representatives since 2000, when election day totals in Minnesota's 2nd congressional district fell within the half percentage point threshold, thus triggering a state-funded recount. It is not known if Mills's request for a privately funded recount has precedent in Minnesota's electoral history, at least as it pertains to elections for the House of Representatives.[77]

Minnesota's 8th congressional district, 2016[6]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic (DFL)Rick Nolan (incumbent) 179,098 50.2
RepublicanStewart Mills177,08949.6
Write-in7920.2
Total votes356,979 100.0
Democratic (DFL) hold

References

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