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2014 Minnesota gubernatorial election

See also: 2014 Minnesota elections

The 2014 Minnesota gubernatorial election took place on November 4, 2014, to elect the governor of Minnesota concurrently with the election to Minnesota's Class II U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

2014 Minnesota gubernatorial election
← 2010November 4, 20142018 →
 
NomineeMark DaytonJeff Johnson
PartyDemocratic (DFL)Republican
Running mateTina SmithBill Kuisle
Popular vote989,113879,257
Percentage50.07%44.51%
Dayton:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Johnson:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%      No votes
Governor before election

Mark Dayton
Democratic (DFL)

Elected Governor

Mark Dayton
Democratic (DFL)

Incumbent Democratic–Farmer–Labor governor Mark Dayton ran for re-election to a second term in office.[1] Incumbent Democratic lieutenant governor Yvonne Prettner Solon retired and Tina Smith was selected as his new running mate.[2]

Primary elections were held on August 12, 2014. Dayton and Smith won the Democratic primary and the Republicans nominated Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson and his running mate former state representative Bill Kuisle. In the general election, Dayton and Smith defeated them and several other minor party candidates with just over 50% of the vote. Dayton's victory broke his own record, set in 2010, as the oldest Minnesota gubernatorial candidate to win an election; he was 67.[3] It was also the first gubernatorial race since 1994 in which the winner received a majority of the votes cast.

The election was the first time since 1994 that a third party did not gain more than 6% of the total vote.

Background

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Incumbent Republican Governor Tim Pawlenty declined to run for a third term in 2010, instead running for the Republican presidential nomination in the 2012 election. State Representative Tom Emmer easily won the Republican nomination and former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton won the DFL nomination with a plurality over State House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher. After a very close race, Dayton defeated Emmer by just 8,770 votes, 0.42% of all votes cast.

Dayton's victory was one of just four that Minnesota Democrats have achieved out of 28 gubernatorial elections during a Democratic presidency.[4] Despite this, and despite his narrow margin of victory in 2010, Dayton was not seen as a top Republican target. The Cook Political Report[5] and The Rothenberg Political Report[6] both rate the race as "safe Democratic" and Daily Kos Elections,[7] Governing[8] and Sabato's Crystal Ball[9] all rate the race as "likely Democratic".

Democratic–Farmer–Labor primary

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Candidates

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Declared

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  • Bill Dahn
    • Running mate: James Vigliotti
  • Leslie Davis, activist[10]
    • Running mate: Gregor Soderberg[11]
  • Mark Dayton, incumbent governor[1]
    • Running mate: Tina Smith, Dayton's former chief of staff[12]

Results

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Democratic primary election results[13]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic (DFL)Mark Dayton/Tina Smith (incumbent) 177,849 92.99
Democratic (DFL)Leslie Davis/Gregor Soderberg8,5304.46
Democratic (DFL)Bill Dahn/James Vigliotti4,8802.55
Total votes191,259 100

Republican primary

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Until 2014, Minnesota Republicans had not had a competitive gubernatorial primary since 1924, when Theodore Christianson beat Ole Jacobson by 2.8%, taking 22.8% of the vote in a six-candidate race that saw five candidates finish in double digits. In every election since then, the nominee had won the primary by at least 17.8% and on average by 62.2%.[14]

At the Republican State Convention on May 30–31, 2014, Jeff Johnson received the party's endorsement. Dave A. Thompson withdrew from the race and endorsed Johnson. Scott Honour, Marty Seifert and Kurt Zellers all ran in the August primary, but Johnson prevailed with 30% of the vote.[15][16]

Candidates

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Declared

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Withdrawn

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Declined

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Polling

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Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Rob
Farnsworth		Scott
Honour		Jeff
Johnson		Julie
Rosen		Ole
Savior		Marty
Seifert		Dave A.
Thompson		Kurt
Zellers		Other/
Undecided
SurveyUSAJune 5–9, 2014404± 5%—9%23%——14%—23%33%[48]
SuffolkApril 24–28, 201473± ?1%2%7%—1%10%5%8%68%
Public Policy PollingOctober 27–29, 2013305± 5.7%—6%8%10%—9%11%12%44%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Norm
Coleman		Keith
Downey		David
Hann		Jeff
Johnson		Julie
Rosen		Marty
Seifert		Kurt
Zellers		Other/
Undecided
Public Policy PollingJanuary 18–20, 2013275± 5.9%57%4%4%4%5%4%5%17%

Results

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Results by county:
Johnson
  •   20-30%
  •   30-40%
  •   40-50%
  •   50-60%
Zellers
  •   20-30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40-50%
Seifert
  •   20-30%
  •   30-40%
  •   40-50%
  •   50-60%
  •   60-70%
  •   70-80%
  •   80-90%
  •   90-100%
Honour
  •   20-30%
  •   30-40%
Republican primary election results[13]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanJeff Johnson/Bill Kuisle 55,836 30.33
RepublicanKurt Zellers/Dean Simpson44,04623.92
RepublicanMarty Seifert/Pam Myhra38,85121.10
RepublicanScott Honour/Karin Housley38,37720.84
RepublicanMerrill Anderson/Mark Anderson7,0003.80
Total votes184,110 100.00

Independence primary

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Nicollet in 2014

The Independence Party of Minnesota state convention was held on May 17, 2014, at Minnesota State University, Mankato.[49]

Candidates

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Nominee

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  • Hannah Nicollet, software developer[50]
    • Running mate: Tim Gieseke, businessman and candidate for the state house in 2013[51]

Declined

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  • Tom Horner, public affairs consultant and nominee for governor in 2010 (endorsed Jeff Johnson)[52][53]

Results

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Independence primary election results[13]
PartyCandidateVotes%
IndependenceHannah Nicollet/Tim Gieseke 5,822 100
Total votes5,822 100

Libertarian Party

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The Libertarian Party of Minnesota state convention was held on April 26, 2014, in Maple Grove.[54]

Candidates

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Nominee

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  • Chris Holbrook[55]
    • Running mate: Chris Dock[56]

Grassroots — Legalize Cannabis Party

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Candidates

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Declared

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  • Chris Wright, computer repair shop owner and nominee for governor in 1998 and 2010[57]
    • Running mate: David Daniels, playwright and performance artist

General election

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Debates

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Predictions

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SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[58]Likely DNovember 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball[59]Likely DNovember 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report[60]Safe DNovember 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics[61]Lean DNovember 3, 2014

Polling

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Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mark
Dayton (DFL)		Jeff
Johnson (R)		Hannah
Nicollet (IP)		OtherUndecided
SurveyUSA/KSTP-TVOctober 27–30, 2014596± 4.1%47%42%2%4%[62]4%
CBS News/NYT/YouGovOctober 16–23, 20142,430± 3%50%41%—1%9%
Mason-Dixon/Star TribuneOctober 20–22, 2014800± 3.5%45%38%5%2%10%
SurveyUSA/KSTP-TVOctober 14–16, 2014597± 4.1%50%40%3%3%[63]4%
SurveyUSA/KSTP-TVSeptember 30 – October 2, 2014577± 4.2%51%39%4%2%[64]4%
CBS News/NYT/YouGovSeptember 20 – October 1, 20142,562± 2%49%42%0%1%8%
Rasmussen ReportsSeptember 29–30, 2014750± 4%50%40%——10%
Mason-Dixon/Star TribuneSeptember 8–10, 2014800± 3.5%45%33%1%1%20%
CBS News/NYT/YouGovAugust 18 – September 2, 20143,607± 2%48%41%—2%10%
SurveyUSA/KSTP-TVAugust 19–21, 2014600± 4.1%49%40%3%3%5%
Rasmussen ReportsAugust 13–14, 2014750± 4%49%41%——10%
Gravis MarketingJuly 2–3, 2014879± 3%52%37%11%——
Public Policy PollingJune 12–15, 2014633± 3.9%47%36%——16%
SurveyUSA/KSTP-TVJune 5–9, 20141,017± 3.1%46%40%5%2%6%
Suffolk UniversityApril 24–28, 2014800± ?44%30%——26%
SurveyUSA/KSTP-TVFebruary 25–27, 2014545± 4.3%52%34%——14%
Public Policy PollingOctober 27–29, 2013895± 3.3%48%37%——15%
Public Policy PollingMay 17–19, 2013712± 3.7%52%34%——14%
Public Policy PollingJanuary 18–20, 20131,065± 3%53%29%——18%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mark
Dayton (DFL)		Merrill
Anderson (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingJune 12–15, 2014633± 3.9%47%35%—18%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mark
Dayton (DFL)		Norm
Coleman (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingJanuary 18–20, 20131,065± 3%52%39%—9%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mark
Dayton (DFL)		Kurt
Daudt (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingMay 17–19, 2013712± 3.7%51%39%—10%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mark
Dayton (DFL)		Keith
Downey (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingJanuary 18–20, 20131,065± 3%53%30%—18%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mark
Dayton (DFL)		Tom
Emmer (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingMay 17–19, 2013712± 3.7%52%39%—9%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mark
Dayton (DFL)		Rob
Farnsworth (R)		OtherUndecided
SuffolkApril 24–28, 2014800± ?45%28%—27%
SurveyUSAFebruary 25–27, 2014545± 4.3%52%31%—17%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mark
Dayton (DFL)		David
Hann (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingMay 17–19, 2013712± 3.7%51%36%—13%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mark
Dayton (DFL)		Scott
Honour (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingJune 12–15, 2014633± 3.9%47%35%—19%
SurveyUSAJune 5–9, 20141,017± 3.1%47%37%10%[65]6%
SuffolkApril 24–28, 2014800± ?45%28%—27%
SurveyUSAFebruary 25–27, 2014545± 4.3%53%33%—14%
Public Policy PollingOctober 27–29, 2013895± 3.3%48%38%—15%
Public Policy PollingMay 17–19, 2013712± 3.7%52%34%—15%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mark
Dayton (DFL)		Tim
Pawlenty (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingJanuary 18–20, 20131,065± 3%50%42%—7%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mark
Dayton (DFL)		Julie
Rosen (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingOctober 27–29, 2013895± 3.3%48%36%—16%
Public Policy PollingMay 17–19, 2013712± 3.7%51%34%—15%
Public Policy PollingJanuary 18–20, 20131,065± 3%52%27%—21%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mark
Dayton (DFL)		Marty
Seifert (R)		OtherUndecided
CBS News/NYT/YouGovJuly 5–24, 20143,170± 2%53%37%6%4%
Public Policy PollingJune 12–15, 2014633± 3.9%47%36%—17%
SurveyUSAJune 5–9, 20141,017± 3.1%46%38%10%[65]6%
SuffolkApril 24–28, 2014800± ?43%32%—25%
SurveyUSAFebruary 25–27, 2014545± 4.3%51%34%—15%
Public Policy PollingOctober 27–29, 2013895± 3.3%48%37%—16%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mark
Dayton (DFL)		Dave A.
Thompson (R)		OtherUndecided
SuffolkApril 24–28, 2014800± ?43%31%—26%
SurveyUSAFebruary 25–27, 2014545 RV± 4.3%53%32%—15%
Public Policy PollingOctober 27–29, 2013895± 3.3%48%37%—15%
Public Policy PollingMay 17–19, 2013712± 3.7%51%35%—13%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mark
Dayton (DFL)		Kurt
Zellers (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingJune 12–15, 2014633± 3.9%47%37%—16%
SurveyUSAJune 5–9, 20141,017± 3.1%46%39%9%[66]5%
SuffolkApril 24–28, 2014800± ?43%31%—26%
SurveyUSAFebruary 25–27, 2014545± 4.3%52%31%—16%
Public Policy PollingOctober 27–29, 2013895± 3.3%48%38%—14%
Public Policy PollingMay 17–19, 2013712± 3.7%53%35%—13%
Public Policy PollingJanuary 18–20, 20131,065± 3%52%29%—19%

Results

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2014 Minnesota gubernatorial election[67]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic (DFL)
989,113 50.07% +6.44%
Republican
879,25744.51%+1.30%
Independence
  • Hannah Nicollet
  • Tim Gieseke
56,9002.88%-9.06%
Grassroots—LC
31,2591.58%+1.23%
Libertarian
  • Chris Holbrook
  • Chris Dock
18,0820.92%N/A
Write-in1,1340.06%-0.05%
Total votes1,975,406 100.0%
Turnout1,992,56650.51%-5.32%
Registered electors3,945,136
Democratic (DFL) hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

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Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

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See also

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References

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  1. ^ a b "Gov. Dayton stops by KARE 11 Sunrise, says he'll run again in 2014". KARE. November 15, 2011. Archived from the original on January 27, 2013. Retrieved November 17, 2012.
  2. ^ Brian Bakst (January 14, 2014). "Minn. Lt. Gov. Prettner Solon says no to 2nd term". San Francisco Chronicle. Retrieved January 14, 2014.
  3. ^ Ostermeier, Eric (November 13, 2014). "Minnesotans Elect Oldest Governor, US House Delegation in State History". Smart Politics.
  4. ^ Ostermeier, Eric (December 6, 2013). "Can Dayton Catch Lightning in a Bottle Twice?". Smart Politics.
  5. ^ "2014 Governors Race Ratings for December 19, 2013". The Cook Political Report. December 19, 2013. Archived from the original on March 5, 2013. Retrieved February 5, 2014.
  6. ^ "Gubernatorial Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. January 31, 2014. Retrieved February 5, 2014.
  7. ^ Nir, David (November 15, 2013). "Daily Kos Elections gubernatorial race ratings (2013-14)". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved February 5, 2014.
  8. ^ "Handicapping the 2013-2014 Governors Races: The Democrats". Governing. July 16, 2013. Archived from the original on October 14, 2014. Retrieved February 5, 2014.
  9. ^ "2014 Gubernatorial Races". Sabato's Crystal Ball. February 3, 2014. Retrieved February 5, 2014.
  10. ^ Salisbury, Bill (January 22, 2014). "Frequent candidate Davis runs for governor, this time as a DFLer". Pioneer Press. Retrieved February 3, 2014.
  11. ^ Daily Herald Staff (June 7, 2014). "Austin resident promoting solar roads on campaign trail". Austin Daily Herald. Retrieved August 5, 2014.
  12. ^ Helgeson, Baird (February 4, 2014). "Dayton picks chief of staff Tina Smith for running mate". Star Tribune. Retrieved February 4, 2014.
  13. ^ a b c "Statewide Results for Governor & Lt Governor, Primary Election". Minnesota Secretary of State. Retrieved August 13, 2014.
  14. ^ Ostermeier, Eric (August 12, 2013). "100 Years of Minnesota Republican Gubernatorial Primaries". Smart Politics.
  15. ^ a b c Don Davis (May 31, 2014). "Jeff Johnson wins governor endorsement from Minnesota GOP". Duluth News Tribune. Retrieved May 31, 2014.
  16. ^ Bill Salisbury (May 31, 2014). "MN GOP: Johnson wins party endorsement for governor's race". St. Paul Pioneer Press. Retrieved May 31, 2014.
  17. ^ "Meet 30 of the candidates for mayor of Minneapolis". Retrieved November 16, 2014.
  18. ^ "2019 Municipal and School District Elections".
  19. ^ Stassen-Berger, Rachel E. (April 24, 2013). "Republican businessman announces challenge to DFL Gov. Dayton". Star Tribune. Retrieved May 2, 2013.
  20. ^ a b Bill Salisbury (May 31, 2014). "Scott Honour picks first-term lawmaker Karin Housley as running mate". St. Paul Pioneer Press. Retrieved May 31, 2014.
  21. ^ "Jeff Johnson wins governor endorsement from Minnesota GOP". Duluth News Tribune. Retrieved November 16, 2014.
  22. ^ Meersman, Tom (May 5, 2013). "Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson announces he will seek GOP nomination for governor". Star Tribune. Retrieved May 5, 2013.
  23. ^ Brucato, Cyndy (November 12, 2013). "Marty Seifert will seek GOP endorsement for governor". MinnPost. Retrieved November 12, 2013.
  24. ^ Salisbury, Bill (February 27, 2014). "Governor hopeful Seifert chooses Rep. Pam Myhra as running mate". Pioneer Press. Retrieved February 27, 2014.
  25. ^ Condon, Patrick (June 23, 2013). "GOP's Zellers vows common touch in Minn. governor's race, but brings past political baggage". Associated Press. Retrieved July 10, 2013.
  26. ^ Tim Pugmire (May 22, 2014). "Zellers picks former Rep. Simpson as running mate". MPR. Retrieved May 31, 2014.
  27. ^ Salisbury, Bill (August 21, 2013). "Hibbing teacher announces run for governor; will seek GOP endorsement". Pioneer Press. Retrieved August 22, 2013.
  28. ^ "Candidate Filings".
  29. ^ Brooks, Jennifer (June 27, 2013). "GOP state Sen. Dave Thompson announces campaign for Minnesota governor". Star Tribune. Retrieved July 10, 2013.
  30. ^ Stassen-Berger, Rachel E. (January 30, 2014). "Sen. Thompson picks Sen. Benson as his gubernatorial running mate". Star Tribune. Retrieved February 4, 2014.
  31. ^ Minock, Nick (August 1, 2013). "Former Senate Candidate Kurt Bills Back's Scott Honour for Governor". Northlands News Center. Archived from the original on October 5, 2013. Retrieved August 12, 2013.
  32. ^ Scheck, Tom (March 7, 2013). "Norm Coleman rules out 2014 run". Minnesota Public Radio. Retrieved April 20, 2013.
  33. ^ Brooks, Jennifer (June 22, 2013). "More GOP hopefuls prepare to jump into Minnesota governor's race". Star Tribune. Retrieved April 20, 2013.
  34. ^ Stassen-Berger, Rachel E. (April 6, 2013). "Minnesota Republican Party elects a new chair". Star Tribune. Retrieved February 3, 2014.
  35. ^ Scheck, Tom (February 4, 2013). "Draft Emmer?". Minnesota Public Radio. Retrieved April 20, 2013.
  36. ^ Salisbury, Bill (June 5, 2013). "Tom Emmer announces candidacy for Congress". Pioneer Press. Retrieved August 22, 2013.
  37. ^ Stassen-Berger, Rachel E. (December 8, 2012). "Minnesota Republicans hold a 'pick-up-the-pieces' gathering". Star Tribune. Retrieved December 12, 2012.
  38. ^ Rupar, Aaron (July 5, 2013). "Minnesota Senate leader Hann decides against GOP governor race". Star Tribune. Retrieved July 8, 2013.
  39. ^ Kimball, Joe (February 3, 2014). "GOP state Sen. Karin Housley says she won't run for governor". MinnPost. Retrieved February 3, 2014.
  40. ^ Bierschbach, Briana (July 2, 2013). "GOP Sen. Bill Ingebrigtsen considering a run for governor". Politics in Minnesota. Retrieved August 22, 2013.
  41. ^ Stassen-Berger, Rachel E. (April 19, 2013). "Kline to seek re-election, not Senate or governor's office". Star Tribune. Retrieved April 20, 2013.
  42. ^ "Kriesel says he's unlikely to return to politics". KARE. June 24, 2013. Archived from the original on June 28, 2013. Retrieved August 22, 2013.
  43. ^ Stassen-Berger, Rachel E. (March 22, 2013). "Republicans sniffing around bids against Dayton". Star Tribune. Retrieved March 26, 2013.
  44. ^ Diaz, Kevin (May 13, 2013). "U.S. Rep. Paulsen rules out run for Minnesota governor or U.S. Senate". Star Tribune. Retrieved May 13, 2013.
  45. ^ a b Kessler, Pat (September 20, 2012). "Pawlenty Rules Out Minnesota Electoral Bid In 2014". CBS Minnesota. Associated Press. Retrieved November 17, 2012.
  46. ^ Scheck, Tom (January 15, 2013). "Rosen pondering a run for higher office". Minnesota Public Radio. Retrieved January 16, 2013.
  47. ^ Scheck, Tom (October 6, 2012). "Downey doesn't rule out run for governor in 2014". Minnesota Public Radio. Retrieved April 20, 2013.
  48. ^ Other 11%, Undecided 22%
  49. ^ "Events". Independence Party of Minnesota. Retrieved February 15, 2014.
  50. ^ Cox, Peter (May 18, 2014). "Full Independence Party slate set for November elections". Minnesota Public Radio. Retrieved May 19, 2014.
  51. ^ "GOP and DFL candidates hit the campaign trail". TwinCities.com. June 2, 2014. Retrieved July 24, 2014.
  52. ^ http://kstp.com/article/stories/s3556490.shtml Tom Horner Endorses Jeff Johnson For Governor
  53. ^ Bakst, Brian (June 16, 2013). "Independence Party's role in Minnesota 2014 governor's race: TBD". Associated Press. Retrieved August 22, 2013.
  54. ^ "2014 LPMN State Convention". Libertarian Party of Minnesota. Retrieved April 29, 2014.
  55. ^ "Five statewide candidates up for nomination at LPMN Convention". Libertarian Party of Minnesota. Retrieved April 29, 2014.
  56. ^ "Liberty Candidates '14". Libertarian Party. Retrieved August 5, 2014.
  57. ^ Patrick Condon (June 21, 2014). "Pot activists light up Minnesota ballot". Star Tribune. Retrieved July 26, 2014.
  58. ^ "2014 Governor Race Ratings for November 3, 2014". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 3, 2018.
  59. ^ "The Crystal Ball's Final 2014 Picks". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 3, 2018.
  60. ^ "2014 Gubernatorial Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 3, 2018.
  61. ^ "2014 Elections Map - 2014 Governors Races". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 3, 2018.
  62. ^ Chris Holbrook (L) 2%, Chris Wright (G) 1%, Other 1%
  63. ^ Chris Holbrook (L) 1%, Chris Wright (G) 1%, Other 1%
  64. ^ Chris Holbrook (L) 0%, Chris Wright (G) 1%, Other 1%
  65. ^ a b Hannah Nicollet (IP) 7%, Other 3%
  66. ^ Hannah Nicollet (IP) 6%, Other 3%
  67. ^ "2014 GENERAL ELECTION RESULTS". Minnesota Secretary of State.
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