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Opinion polling for the 2016 Irish general election

Numerous polls of support for political parties in Ireland were taken between the 2011 general election and the 2016 general election, held on Friday, 26 February 2016. The article also contains polls taken after the election while a government was being formed.

Two main tables of opinion polls are shown below. The top table lists opinion polls taken in 2016, the election year, and includes all political parties with Dáil representation, plus the Green Party. The second table, for polls from the last general election in 2011 up to 2015, does not break out Renua Ireland or the Social Democrats, which were both founded in 2015.

2016

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Color key:

  Exit poll

DateSource/LinkPolling AgencyFGLabFFSFAAA -PBPRISDGPOthers
26 February 2016General election—25.56.624.313.83.92.23.02.717.9
26 February 2016RTÉ[p 1]Behaviour & Attitudes24.87.121.116.04.72.43.73.616.6
26 February 2016The Irish Times[p 2]Ipsos MRBI26.17.822.914.93.62.32.83.516.1
23 February 2016Paddy Power[p 3][p 4]Red C3072015324316[nb 1]
22 February 2016The Irish Times[p 5]Ipsos MRBI2862315323218[nb 2]
21 February 2016Sunday Independent[p 6][p 7]Millward Brown2762319524214[nb 3]
21 February 2016The Sunday Business Post[p 8][p 9]Red C3081816324415[nb 4]
21 February 2016The Sunday Times[p 10][p 11]Behaviour & Attitudes3042215533315[nb 5]
16 February 2016The Irish Sun[p 12]Red C2691917223418[nb 6]
13 February 2016The Sunday Business Post[p 13][p 14]Red C2881820314216[nb 7]
10 February 2016Paddy Power[p 15][p 16]Red C3081817423216[nb 8]
6 February 2016The Sunday Times[p 17][p 18]Behaviour & Attitudes2882017324315[nb 9]
6 February 2016The Sunday Business Post[p 17][p 19]Red C31101717313216[nb 10]
6 February 2016Sunday Independent[p 20][p 21]Millward Brown2762221311118
4 February 2016The Irish Times[p 22]Ipsos MRBI2872119412216[nb 11]
30 January 2016The Sunday Business Post[p 23]Red C29101719312316
16 January 2016The Sunday Business Post[p 24]Red C3091919321215
16 January 2016The Sunday Times[p 25][p 26]Behaviour & Attitudes3162016321320[nb 12]
25 February 2011General election—36.119.417.49.92.2[nb 13]——1.814.2

2011–2015

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Graphical summary

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Poll results

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DateSource/LinkPolling AgencyFGLabFFSFGPAAA-PBPOthers
19 December 2015The Sunday Business Post[p 27]Red C32917192318[nb 14]
13 December 2015The Sunday Times[p 28]Behaviour & Attitudes31819173418[nb 15]
2 December 2015Paddy Power[p 29]Red C28920182419[nb 16]
26 November 2015The Irish Times[p 30]Ipsos MRBI30719212318[nb 17]
21 November 2015The Sunday Business Post[p 31]Red C31719182419[nb 18]
14 November 2015The Sunday Times[p 32]Behaviour & Attitudes26720211916[nb 19]
7 November 2015Sunday Independent[p 33]Millward Brown29724211—19[nb 20]
24 October 2015The Sunday Business Post[p 34][p 35]Red C30720162124[nb 21]
18 October 2015The Sunday Times[p 36]Behaviour & Attitudes24819191721[nb 22]
23 September 2015The Irish Times[p 37]Ipsos MRBI28820191321[nb 23]
12 September 2015The Sunday Business Post[p 38]Red C28101816——28
15 August 2015The Sunday Times[p 39]Behaviour & Attitudes27620192523[nb 24]
30 July 2015Sunday Independent[p 40]Millward Brown247232113[nb 25]23[nb 26]
26 July 2015The Sunday Business Post[p 41]Red C25818182128
18 July 2015The Sunday Times[p 42]Behaviour & Attitudes2481817——32
27 June 2015Sunday Independent[p 43]Millward Brown29623211317[nb 20]
24 June 2015The Sunday Business Post[p 43][p 44]Red C28720182[nb 27]—25[nb 27]
15 June 2015The Sunday Times[p 45][p 46]Behaviour & Attitudes24921192[nb 28]26[nb 28]
30 May 2015The Sunday Business Post[p 47]Red C281019213—19[nb 20]
14 May 2015The Irish Times[p 48]Ipsos MRBI2872021——24
26 April 2015The Sunday Business Post[p 49][p 50]Red C25819221[nb 29]—[nb 30]24[nb 29]
5 April 2015Sunday Independent[p 51]Millward Brown25819243218[nb 31]
28 March 2015The Sunday Business Post[p 52][p 53]Red C271018172[nb 32]—26[nb 32]
26 March 2015The Irish Times[p 54]Ipsos MRBI24717243—25
11 March 2015The Sunday Times[p 55]Behaviour & Attitudes27918193—23
21 February 2015The Sunday Business Post[p 56]Red C24718213—27[nb 33]
14 February 2015Sunday Independent[p 57][p 58]Millward Brown25619261[nb 34]—23[nb 34]
19 January 2015The Sunday Business Post[p 59]Red C24919202—26
13 January 2015RTÉ (Today with Sean O'Rourke)[p 60]Red C24818211—28[nb 35]
21 December 2014The Sunday Times[p 61]Behaviour & Attitudes24518221—29
18 December 2014Sunday Independent[p 62]Millward Brown22518212—32
17 December 2014The Sunday Business Post[p 63]Red C21619242—28
4 December 2014The Irish Times[p 64]Ipsos MRBI19621223—29
23 November 2014The Sunday Business Post[p 65]Red C22818223—27
2 November 2014Sunday Independent[p 66]Millward Brown22720262—23
26 October 2014The Sunday Times[p 67]Behaviour & Attitudes25918193—25
26 October 2014The Sunday Business Post[p 65]Red C26818202—28
9 October 2014The Irish Times[p 68]Ipsos MRBI2492024——23
21 September 2014Sunday Independent[p 69]Millward Brown25921221—23
14 September 2014The Sunday Business Post[p 70]Red C28818232—23
17 August 2014The Sunday Times[p 71]Behaviour & Attitudes241418191—24
3 August 2014Sunday Independent[p 72]Millward Brown25720241—23
29 June 2014The Sunday Business Post[p 73]Red C25718222—26
12 June 2014Paddy Power[p 74]Red C22418222—32
7 June 2014Sunday Independent[p 75]Millward Brown20520262225
23 May 2014European election—22.35.322.319.54.93.3[nb 36]23.9
23 May 2014Local elections—24.07.225.315.21.62.9[nb 36]25.5
19 May 2014Sunday Independent[p 76]Millward Brown20621232—27
1 May 2014The Sunday Business Post[p 77]Red C25112118——25
19 April 2014Sunday Independent[p 78][p 79]Millward Brown29622202—21
19 April 2014The Sunday Times[p 79][p 80]Behaviour & Attitudes21920204—26
3 April 2014The Irish Times[p 81]Ipsos MRBI2582521——21
30 March 2014The Sunday Business Post[p 82]Red C2692221——22
28 February 2014Sunday Independent[p 83]Millward Brown27821222—20
22 February 2014The Sunday Times[p 84]Behaviour & Attitudes3091918——24
22 February 2014The Sunday Business Post[p 84]Red C29112216——22
24 January 2014Sunday Independent[p 85]Millward Brown301226161—15
22 January 2014The Sunday Business Post[p 85]Red C2792316——25
9 January 2014Paddy Power[p 86]Red C28102218——22
15 December 2013The Sunday Times[p 87]Behaviour & Attitudes301121153[nb 37]—21[nb 37]
10 December 2013The Irish Times[p 88]Ipsos MRBI3092221—[nb 38]—18
24 November 2013The Sunday Business Post[p 90]Red C291222152[nb 39]—20[nb 39]
17 November 2013Sunday Independent[p 91]Millward Brown27924211—18
7 November 2013Paddy Power[p 92]Red C25924162—24
23 October 2013The Sunday Business Post[p 93]Red C2992317——23
1 October 2013The Irish Times[p 94]Ipsos MRBI26622232—21
28 September 2013Sunday Independent[p 95]Millward Brown Lansdowne281027191—15
21 September 2013The Sunday Times[p 96][p 97]Behaviour & Attitudes251121183—23
16 September 2013The Sunday Business Post[p 98]Red C271023174—19
1 September 2013Sunday Independent[p 99]Millward Brown Lansdowne27825211—18
18 August 2013Sunday Independent[p 100]Millward Brown Lansdowne29828191—15
7 July 2013Sunday Independent[p 101]Millward Brown Lansdowne2682919——19
30 June 2013The Sunday Business Post[p 102]Red C28122217——21
14 June 2013The Irish Times[p 103]Ipsos MRBI24926212—18
13 June 2013Paddy Power[p 103]Red C30102416——20
2 June 2013Sunday Independent[p 104]Millward Brown Lansdowne27112717——18
26 May 2013The Sunday Business Post[p 105]Red C26112616——21
19 May 2013Sunday Independent[p 106]Millward Brown Lansdowne231226191—18
28 April 2013The Sunday Business Post[p 107]Red C281125162—18
14 April 2013Sunday Independent[p 108]Millward Brown Lansdowne241227162—18
31 March 2013The Sunday Times[p 109]Behaviour & Attitudes27723152—25
24 March 2013The Sunday Business Post[p 107]Red C281324141—20
17 March 2013Sunday Independent[p 108]Millward Brown Lansdowne25929201—16
2 March 2013Irish Independent[p 108]Millward Brown Lansdowne241123212—20
24 February 2013The Sunday Business Post[p 107]Red C281226162—16
18 February 2013Irish Independent[p 108]Millward Brown Lansdowne251327201—15
8 February 2013The Irish Times[p 110]Ipsos MRBI251026181—20
27 January 2013The Sunday Business Post[p 107]Red C281121192—19
21 January 2013The Sunday Times[p 109]Behaviour & Attitudes261124193—18
10 January 2013Paddy Power[p 111]Red C291321163—18
2 December 2012The Sunday Business Post[p 107]Red C281420173—18
18 November 2012The Sunday Times[p 109]Behaviour & Attitudes301222143—19
28 October 2012The Sunday Business Post[p 107]Red C341319172—15
18 October 2012The Irish Times[p 112]Ipsos MRBI311221202—14
23 September 2012The Sunday Business Post[p 107]Red C321418182—16
16 September 2012The Sunday Times[p 109]Behaviour & Attitudes311416182—19
24 June 2012The Sunday Business Post[p 107]Red C321518162—17
27 May 2012Sunday Independent[p 113]Millward Brown Lansdowne361217201—14
26 May 2012The Sunday Business Post[p 107]Red C301518192—16
25 May 2012The Irish Times[p 114]Ipsos MRBI321017242—15
23 May 2012The Sunday Times[p 109]Behaviour & Attitudes331416172—18
18 May 2012Paddy Power[p 115]Red C321318202—15
18 May 2012Irish Independent[p 113]Millward Brown Lansdowne341516171—17
13 May 2012The Sunday Business Post[p 107]Red C291319212—16
29 April 2012The Sunday Business Post[p 107]Red C321417192115
17 April 2012The Sunday Times[p 109]Behaviour & Attitudes331415165—18
20 April 2012The Irish Times[p 116]Ipsos MRBI331314212—17
30 March 2012Paddy Power[p 115]Red C351615142—18
25 March 2012The Sunday Business Post[p 107]Red C341516182—15
4 March 2012The Sunday Business Post[p 107]Red C301617182—17
20 February 2012The Sunday Times[p 109]Behaviour & Attitudes331316202—16
29 January 2012The Sunday Business Post[p 107]Red C301418173—18
12 January 2012Paddy Power[p 115]Red C331617142—18
12 December 2011The Sunday Times[p 109]Behaviour & Attitudes291218193—18
4 December 2011The Sunday Business Post[p 107]Red C321518151—19
25 October 2011The Irish Times[p 117]Ipsos MRBI361915151—14
23 October 2011The Sunday Business Post[p 107]Red C311714162—20
18 October 2011The Sunday Times[p 109]Behaviour & Attitudes351614171—16
7 October 2011The Irish Times[p 118]Ipsos MRBI351716182—12
2 October 2011The Sunday Times[p 109]Behaviour & Attitudes341616143—17
25 September 2011The Sunday Business Post[p 107]Red C331615152—19
17 September 2011Sunday Independent[p 119]Millward Brown Lansdowne402010112—17
4 September 2011The Sunday Times[p 120]Behaviour & Attitudes441215132—12
21 July 2011The Irish Times[p 121]Ipsos MRBI381818102—14
22 June 2011Irish Independent[p 113]Millward Brown Lansdowne421916111—12
29 May 2011The Sunday Business Post[p 107]Red C411916113—10
10 April 2011The Sunday Business Post[p 107]Red C391816112—14
25 February 2011General election—36.119.417.49.91.82.2[nb 40]14.2

Polling Companies

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Four companies carry out national and sectoral opinion polls in Ireland. They use different methodologies, which can have a bearing on overall accuracy.

Normally the sample size for a national poll is in the very low thousands with a margin of error of ~ 3%

The methodologies used by the four companies are:

Polling AgencyMethodologyOwn Statement on Sampling (with page number)
BandAFace To Face(In Home)[t 1] (Page 3)
IpSoS/MRBITelephone(Random Autodial)[t 2] (Description section at bottom)
Millward BrownFace To Face (In Home)[t 3] (Page 2)
RedCTelephone(Random Autodial)[t 4] (Page 2)

Footnotes

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  1. ^ "Others" includes Independent Alliance 2%
  2. ^ "Others" includes Independent Alliance 4% .Others also includes 3% who indicated they would vote Independent/Other but were undecided as to precisely whom.
  3. ^ Millward Brown does not break out Independent Alliance
  4. ^ "Others" includes Independent Alliance 3%
  5. ^ "Others" includes Independent Alliance 5%, Workers' Party 1%
  6. ^ "Others" includes Independent Alliance 5%
  7. ^ "Others" includes Independent Alliance 3%
  8. ^ "Others" includes Independent Alliance 4%
  9. ^ "Others" includes Independent Alliance 4%, Workers' Party 1%
  10. ^ "Others" includes Independent Alliance 2%
  11. ^ "Others" includes Independent Alliance 3%
  12. ^ "Others" includes Workers' Party 2%, and Independent Alliance 3%
  13. ^ Socialist Party 1.2% and People Before Profit 1% in 2011, they have combined since the 2014 Local Elections, where they ran separately, as the Anti Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit Party abbreviated initially as AAA-PBP and latterly as AAA only.
  14. ^ "Others" includes Social Democrats 2% and Renua 2%
  15. ^ "Others" includes Social Democrats 1%, Workers' Party 1%, Independent Alliance 2% and Renua 1%
  16. ^ "Others" includes Social Democrats 3%, Independent Alliance 2% and Renua 1%
  17. ^ "Others" includes Independent Alliance 3%, Renua 2% and Social Democrats 2%
  18. ^ "Others" includes Social Democrats 3% and Renua 1%
  19. ^ "Others" includes Independent Alliance 2%, Renua 1% and Social Democrats 1%
  20. ^ a b c "Others" includes Renua 1%
  21. ^ "Others" includes Renua 2% and Social Democrats 1%
  22. ^ "Others" includes Independent Alliance 5%, Renua 2%, Social Democrats 1% and Workers' Party 1%
  23. ^ "Others" includes Independent Alliance 3%, Renua 2% and Social Democrats 1%
  24. ^ "Others" includes Workers' Party 2%, Renua 2% and Social Democrats 1%
  25. ^ 2% reported as Socialist Party
  26. ^ "Others" includes Renua 1% and Social Democrats 0.5%
  27. ^ a b "Others" includes Renua 1%. The "Others" figure of 27% reported by RTÉ also included 2% Greens.[p 44])
  28. ^ a b "Others" includes Renua 1%. The "Others" figure of 28% reported by RTÉ also included 2% Greens.[p 46])
  29. ^ a b "Others" includes Renua (1%) and the Socialist Party (less than 1%). The "Others" figure of 26% reported by RTÉ also included 1% Greens.[p 50])
  30. ^ Less than 1%, included in "Others"
  31. ^ "Others" includes Renua 2%
  32. ^ a b "Others" includes Renua 2%. The "Others" figure of 28% reported by Breaking News also included 2% Greens.[p 53])
  33. ^ "Others" includes Renua 1% (The reported "others" figure of 30% also included 3% Greens.[p 56])
  34. ^ a b The "Others" figure of 24% reported by The Irish Times also included 1% Greens.[p 58])
  35. ^ "Others" includes 1% for Renua, which had not been named at that point.
  36. ^ a b Contested as separate parties
  37. ^ a b Others figure of 24% includes 3% for the Green Party
  38. ^ Less than 1%; included in "Others".[p 89]
  39. ^ a b "Independents and other parties" had 19% of the core vote, adjusted to 22% excluding undecided voters. The Green Party was 2 percentage points of the 19% core vote.[p 90]
  40. ^ Socialist Party 1.2% and People Before Profit 1%

References

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  1. ^ "RTÉ Exit Poll: Bad news for Govt parties (SAMPLING 26-02-2016)". RTÉ. 26 February 2016. Retrieved 27 February 2016.
  2. ^ "Irish Times exit poll shows Coalition well short of overall majority (SAMPLING 26/02)". Irish Times. 26 February 2016. Retrieved 26 February 2016.
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  4. ^ "RedC Research Full Data 23 Feb" (PDF). Red C Research. Retrieved 24 February 2016.
  5. ^ "FF rise in poll as Government stagnates (SAMPLING 19/02-20/02)". Irish Times. 21 February 2016. Retrieved 21 February 2016.
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