2024 United Kingdom general election

In July 2019, Boris Johnson became the Prime Minister, having taken over from Theresa May, who had resigned after Parliament repeatedly voted against her proposed Brexit deal. His party, the Conservative Party, had governed since the 2010 general election, initially in coalition with the Liberal Democrats and then alone with a small majority following the 2015 general election. With insufficient parliamentary support for his Brexit plans, Johnson called the 2019 general election, in which his party won a landslide victory, and Johnson was able to pass a revised version of May's withdrawal agreement.

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK, Johnson and his government had instituted public health restrictions, including limitations on social interaction, that Johnson and some of his staff were later found to have broken. The resulting political scandal (Partygate), one of many in a string of controversies that characterised Johnson's premiership, severely damaged his personal reputation. The situation escalated with the Chris Pincher scandal in July 2022, and led to a mass resignation of members of his government, culminating when Johnson announced his resignation on 7 July.^[6]

Liz Truss was elected to succeed Johnson on 5 September, and assumed the premiership the following day. Truss and her chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, announced large-scale tax cuts and borrowing in a mini-budget on 23 September, which was widely criticised and largely reversed, having led to financial instability. Following mounting criticism and loss of confidence in her leadership, Truss announced her resignation on 20 October, which made her the shortest-serving prime minister in British history.^[7] Rishi Sunak was elected unopposed to succeed her on 24 October 2022, and assumed the premiership on the following day.^[8][9]

Originally the next election was scheduled to take place on 2 May 2024 under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011.^[g] At the 2019 general election, in which the Conservatives won a majority of 80 seats, the party's manifesto contained a commitment to repeal the Fixed-term Parliaments Act.^[11] In December 2020, the government duly published a draft Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 (Repeal) Bill, later retitled the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022.^[12] This entered into force on 24 March 2022. Thus, the prime minister can again request the monarch to dissolve Parliament and call an early election with 25 working days' notice. Section 4 of the Act provided: "If it has not been dissolved earlier, a Parliament dissolves at the beginning of the day that is the fifth anniversary of the day on which it first met." The Electoral Commission confirmed that the 2019 Parliament would, therefore, have to be dissolved, at the latest, by 17 December 2024, and that the next general election had to take place no later than 28 January 2025.^[13][14]

With no election date fixed in law, there was speculation as to when Sunak would call an election. On 18 December 2023, Sunak told journalists that the election would take place in 2024 rather than January 2025.^[15] On 4 January, he first suggested the general election would probably be in the second half of 2024.^[16] On 22 May 2024, following much speculation through the day,^[17][18][19] Sunak officially announced the election would be held on 4 July with the dissolution of the Parliament on 30 May.^[20]

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• British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak calls for general election in UK

The deadline for candidate nominations was 7 June 2024, with ongoing political campaigning for four weeks until polling day on 4 July. On the day of the election, polling stations across the country will be open from 7 am, and will close at 10 pm. The date chosen for the 2024 general election made it the first to be held in July since the 1945 general election.

General elections in the United Kingdom are organised using first-past-the-post voting. The Conservative Party, which won a majority at the 2019 general election, included pledges in its manifesto to remove the 15-year limit on voting for British citizens living abroad, and to introduce a voter identification requirement in Great Britain.^[25] These changes were included in the Elections Act 2022.

The Sixth Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies, which proposed reducing the number of constituencies from 650 to 600, commenced in 2011 but temporarily stopped in January 2013. Following the 2015 general election, each of the four parliamentary boundary commissions of the United Kingdom recommenced their review process in April 2016.^[26][27][28] The four commissions submitted their final recommendations to the Secretary of State on 5 September 2018^[29][30] and made their reports public a week later.^{[31][32][33][29]} However, the proposals were never put forward for approval before the calling of the general election held on 12 December 2019, and in December 2020 the reviews were formally abandoned under the Schedule to the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020.^[34] A projection by psephologists Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher of how the 2017 votes would have translated to seats under the 2018 boundaries suggested the changes would have been beneficial to the Conservative Party and detrimental to the Labour Party.^[35][36]

In March 2020, Cabinet Office minister Chloe Smith confirmed that the 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies would be based on retaining 650 seats.^[37][38] The previous relevant legislation was amended by the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020^[39] and the four boundary commissions formally launched their 2023 reviews on 5 January 2021.^{[40][41][42][43]} They were required to issue their final reports prior to 1 July 2023.^[34] Once the reports had been laid before Parliament, Orders in Council giving effect to the final proposals had to be made within four months, unless "there are exceptional circumstances". Prior to the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020, boundary changes could not be implemented until they were approved by both Houses of Parliament. The boundary changes were approved at a meeting of the Privy Council on 15 November 2023^[44] and came into force on 29 November 2023,^[45] meaning that the election will be contested on these new boundaries.^[46]

Affiliation		Members
		Elected in 2019[47]	At dissolution in 2024[48][49][50][h]	Difference
	Conservative	365	344	21
	Labour[i]	202	205	3
	SNP	48	43	5
	Liberal Democrats	11	15	4
	DUP	8	7	1
	Sinn Féin	7	7
	Plaid Cymru	4	3	1
	SDLP	2	2
	Alba	N/A[j]	2[k]	2
	Green	1	1
	Alliance	1	1
	Workers Party	N/A[j]	1	1
	Reform UK[l]	0	1	1
	Speaker	1	1
	Independent	0	15[m]	15
Vacant		0	0
Total		650	650
Effective total voting[n]		639	638	1[o]
Majority		87	44[57]	43

For full details of changes during the 2019-2024 Parliament, see By-elections and Defections, suspensions and resignations.

The results of the 2019 general election are given above, alongside the numbers in the House of Commons at dissolution. Seat counts changed through 23 by-elections and a number of defections and suspensions of members from their party that took place throughout the 2019–2024 parliament. There were no vacant seats at dissolution.

The election will be contested under new constituency boundaries established by the 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies. Consequently, media outlets tend to report seat gains and losses as compared to notional results. These are the results if all votes cast in 2019 were unchanged, but regrouped by new constituency boundaries.^[58] Notional results in the UK are always estimated, usually with the assistance of local election results, because vote counts at parliamentary elections in the UK do not yield figures at any level more specific than that of the whole constituency.^[59]

In England, seats will be redistributed towards Southern England, away from Northern England, due to the different rates of population growth. North West England and North East England will lose two seats each whereas South East England will gain seven seats and South West England will gain three seats.^[60] Based on historical voting patterns, this is expected to help the Conservatives.^[61] Based on these new boundaries, different parties would have won several constituencies with unchanged names but changed boundaries in 2019. For example, the Conservatives would have won Wirral West and Leeds North West instead of the Labour Party, but Labour would have won Pudsey and Heywood & Middleton instead of the Conservatives. Westmorland and Lonsdale, the constituency represented by former Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron, is now notionally a Conservative seat.

In Scotland, 57 MPs will be elected, down from the 59 in 2019, with the following notional partisan composition of Scotland's parliamentary delegation:^[62] The Scottish National Party would remain steady on 48 seats, despite two of its constituencies being dissolved. The Scottish Conservatives' seat count of six would likewise remain unchanged. Scottish Labour would have retained Edinburgh South, the sole constituency they won in 2019. Had the 2019 general election occurred with the new boundaries in effect, the Scottish Liberal Democrats would have only won two seats (Edinburgh West and Orkney and Shetland), instead of the four they did win that year, as the expanded electorates in the other two would overcome their slender majorities.

Under the new boundaries, Wales will lose eight seats, electing 32 MPs instead of the 40 they elected in 2019. Welsh Labour would have won 18 instead of the 22 MPs they elected in 2019, and the Welsh Conservatives 12 instead of 14. Due to the abolition and merging of rural constituencies in West Wales, Plaid Cymru would have only won two seats instead of four. Nonetheless, the boundaries are expected to cause difficulty for the Conservatives as more pro-Labour areas are added to some of their safest seats.^[63]

In Northern Ireland, the notional results are identical to the actual results of the 2019 general election in Northern Ireland.

Notional 2019 results on 2023 boundaries^[59]

Party		MPs
		2019 actual result	2019 notional result	Change
	Conservative	365	372	7
	Labour	202	200	2
	SNP	48	48
	Liberal Democrats	11	8	3
	DUP	8	8
	Sinn Féin	7	7
	Plaid Cymru	4	2	2
	SDLP	2	2
	Green	1	1
	Alliance	1	1
	Speaker	1	1

On the afternoon of 22 May 2024, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced that the general election would be held on 4 July 2024, surprising his own MPs. While calling the election, Sunak said: "Who do you trust, to turn that foundation into a secure future for you, your family and our country? Now is the moment for Britain to choose its future. To decide whether we want to build on the progress we have made or risk going back to square one with no plan and no certainty."^[64]

The calling of the election was welcomed by Keir Starmer, Leader of the Opposition and the Labour Party,^[65] and by Ed Davey, leader of the Liberal Democrats.^[66] Starmer said that the election is an "opportunity for change", mentioning the issues of sewage in British rivers, people waiting on trolleys in A&E, the cost of living crisis, and crime going "virtually unpunished", as he attacked the Conservative Party's record in government. Starmer offered three reasons why people should vote for Labour, firstly to "stop the chaos", secondly "because it’s time for change" and thirdly because Labour have "a long-term plan to rebuild Britain" that "is ready to go, fully-costed and fully funded."^[67]

Davey said: "This general election is a chance to kick Rishi Sunak’s appalling Conservative government out of office and deliver the change the public is crying out for. For years the Conservative Party has taken voters for granted and lurched from crisis to crisis while the problems facing the country are getting so much worse. Every vote for the Liberal Democrats at this election is a vote for a strong local champion who will stand up for your community and health services. It’s clear that in many seats across the country, the best way to beat the Conservatives is to vote for the Liberal Democrats.”^[68][69][70] Davey has been noted for his campaign stunts.^[71] When visiting Windermere, Davey fell off his paddleboard, whilst campaigning to highlight the issue of sewage discharges into Britain's rivers and lakes.^[72] A couple of days later, Davey won high-profile media attention when going down a Slip 'N Slide, whilst drawing attention to deteriorating mental health among children. When asked about these stunts, Davey said: “Politicians need to take the concerns and interests of voters seriously but I’m not sure they need to take themselves seriously all the time and I’m quite happy to have some fun".^[73]

Sunak's announcement received significant media coverage for taking place during heavy rain at a lectern outside 10 Downing Street, without the use of any umbrella or shelter from the rain.^{[74][75][76][77][78]} The D:Ream song "Things Can Only Get Better" (frequently used by the Labour Party, then led by Tony Blair, in its successful 1997 campaign) was unexpectedly played by the political activist Steve Bray as Sunak announced the date of the general election.^[79][80][81] This led to the song entering the top 10 on the iTunes Charts within 24 hours.^[82] The band later stated they regretted the use of the song in political campaigns and would not grant permission for it to be used in future campaigns.^[83] At the beginning of the campaign, Labour had a significant lead in polling over the Conservatives.^[84][85] Polling would also show Labour doing well against the Scottish National Party (SNP).^[86]

On 23 May, Sunak said that before the election there would be no flights to Rwanda for those seeking asylum.^[87] Immigration figures were published for 2023 showing immigration remained at historically high levels, but had fallen compared to 2022.^[88] Nigel Farage initially said that he would not stand as a candidate in the election, while his party Reform UK said it would stand in 630 seats across England, Scotland and Wales.^[89] Farage later announced on 3 June that, contrary to his statement earlier in the campaign, he would stand for Parliament in Clacton, and that he had resumed leadership of Reform UK. He also said that Labour would win the election.^[90] Ed Davey launched the Liberal Democrat campaign in Cheltenham in Gloucestershire.^[91] The SNP campaign launch the same day was overshadowed over a dispute around leader John Swinney's support for Michael Matheson and developments in Operation Branchform.^[92] Starmer launched the Labour Party campaign in Gillingham at the Priestfield Stadium, home of Gillingham Football Club.^[93]

On 24 May, the Conservatives proposed setting up a Royal Commission to consider a form of mandatory national service.^[94] Jeremy Corbyn announced on 24 May he was running as an independent against a Labour candidate, and was thus expelled from the party.^[95]

On 27 May, Starmer made a keynote speech on security and other issues.^[96][97]

On 28 May, the Conservatives pledged a "Triple Lock Plus" where the personal income tax allowance for pensioners would always stay higher than the state pension.^[98] Labour criticised the policy as being uncosted.^[99] Ed Davey went paddleboarding on Lake Windermere in the marginal constituency of Westmorland and Lonsdale, highlighting the release of sewage in waterways.^[100] He pledged to abolish Ofwat and introduce a new water regulator to tackle the situation, in addition to proposing a ban on bonuses for chief executives of water companies.^[101] Starmer was in West Sussex and emphasised his small town roots in first big campaign speech.^[102]

On 29 May, Labour's Shadow Health Secretary Wes Streeting promised a 18-week NHS waiting target within five years of a Labour government.^[103] On the same day the junior doctors announced new strike days in the days before the election.^[104] On the same day Starmer denied that Diane Abbott had been blocked as a candidate amid differing reports.^[105] Abbott had been elected as a Labour MP, but had been suspended from the parliamentary party for a brief period. There was controversy about further Labour Party candidate selections, with several candidates on the left of the party being excluded.^[106]

On 30 May, both the Conservatives and Labour ruled out any rise in value-added tax.^[107] The SNPs Màiri McAllan claimed that only the SNP offers Scotland a route back into the European Union making Pro-Europeanism part of the party's campaign.^[108] Reform UK proposed an immigration tax on British firms who employ foreign workers, and also ruled out any pacts with other parties.^[109] The Green Party campaign was launched in Bristol.^[110] Plaid Cymru launched its campaign in Bangor.^[111]

On 1 June, the Conservatives and Labour unveiled their campaign buses.^[112] Labour promised to cut net migration.^[113] The Workers Party launched its campaign in Ashton-under-Lyne.^[114]

On 3 June, Sunak pledged to tackle what he called the "confusion" over the legal definition of sex by proposing amending the Equality Act, and was photobombed by the Liberal Democrats while campaigning in Henley-on-Thames.^[115] Labour focused on national security, with Starmer reaffirming his commitment to a "nuclear deterrent triple lock", including building four new nuclear submarines.^[116] A YouGov poll conducted on the same day revealed Labour to be on course for the party’s biggest election victory in history, beating Tony Blair's 1997 landslide. The poll indicated Labour could win 422 seats, while the Conservatives were projected to win 140 seats.^[117]

On 4 June, Nigel Farage launched his campaign in Clacton.^[118] He announced the previous day that he intends Reform UK to be the Official Opposition following the election as opposed to the Conservatives, saying that the Conservatives are incapable of being the Opposition due to "spending most of the last five years fighting each other rather than fighting for the interests of this country".^[119]

On 6 June, the Greens announced plans to invest an extra £50 billion a year for the NHS by raising taxes on the top 1% of earners.^[120] Social care has been a campaign issue.^[121] The Conservatives also announced a policy on expanding child benefit for higher-earners.^[122]

Sunak and Starmer attended D-Day commemorations on 6 June, the 80th anniversary. Sunak was heavily criticised for leaving events early to do an interview with ITV,^{[123][124][125]} including by veterans.^[126][127] Starmer met with Volodymyr Zelenskyy and King Charles III during the D-Day commemorations, and said that Sunak "has to answer for his actions."^[128][129] Sunak apologised the next day^[130] and apologised again on 10 June.^[131] He made a final apology on 12 June.

Farage was among those critical of Sunak over his leaving the D-Day events,^[132][133] saying on 7 June that Sunak did not understand "our culture". Conservative and Labour politicians criticised these words as being a racist attack on Sunak, which Farage denied.^[134] Douglas Ross announced he would stand down as the leader of the Scottish Conservatives after the election.^[135] With Reform UK doing well in the polls, Suella Braverman argued that the Conservatives should find a way to work with Reform UK and welcome Farage into the Conservatives.^[136][137]

On 10 June, Labour pledged 100,000 new childcare places and more than 3,000 new nurseries as part of its childcare plan.^[138]

The Liberal Democrat manifesto was released on 10 June,^[139][140] which included commitments on free personal care (in England, with the matter devolved in the other nations), investment in the NHS including more GPs, increased funding for education and childcare (including a tutoring guarantee for children from low-income families), tax reforms, reaching net zero by 2045, and removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit and Child Tax Credit.^[141]

The Conservative manifesto was released on 11 June, addressing the economy, taxes, welfare, expanding free childcare, education, healthcare, environment, energy, transport, and crime.^[142][143] They pledged to lower taxes, increase education and NHS spending, deliver 92,000 more nurses and 28,000 more doctors, introduce a new model of National Service, and to treble Britain’s offshore wind capacity and support solar energy. The manifesto also includes a pledge to abolish Stamp Duty on homes worth up to £425,000 for first time buyers and expand the Help to Buy scheme.^[144]

The Green Party manifesto was released on 12 June, which pledged more taxes on the highest earners, generating £70 billion a year to help tackle climate change and the NHS. They also pledged a green society, a wealth tax, a carbon tax, and a windfall tax on the profit of banks.^[145]

On 12 June, Conservative minister Grant Shapps said in a radio interview that voters should support the Conservatives so as to prevent Labour winning "a super-majority", i.e. a large majority. (The UK Parliament does not have any formal supermajority rules.) This was interpreted by journalists as a possible and surprising admission of defeat.^{[146][147][148]} It paralleled social media advertising by the Conservatives that also focused on urging votes not to give Starmer a large majority.^[149] Also on 12 June, it became known that Craig Williams, Sunak’s parliamentary private secretary, who is standing for reelection in Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr, had placed a £100 bet on the election being in a July, three days before this was announced. The bet was referred to the Gambling Commission to determine whether Williams had placed the bet based on confidential information, which could constitute a criminal offence.^[150] Williams apologised for the bet, but neither he nor Sunak would answer whether he had inside information.^[151][152] The Gambling Commission wrote to Sunak about Williams.^[153] Foreign Secretary David Cameron said that Williams' bet on the election was "very foolish", and defended Sunak's decision to leave the D-Day events early whilst saying he was right to apologise.^[154][155]

On 13 June, the Labour Party released its manifesto Change, which focused on economic growth, planning system reforms, infrastructure, what they describe as ‘clean energy’, healthcare, education, childcare, and strengthening workers' rights.^[156] It pledged a new publicly owned energy company, a 'Green Prosperity Plan', reducing patient waiting times in the NHS, and renationalisation of the railway network.^[157] It includes wealth creation and 'pro-business and pro-worker' policies.^[158] The manifesto also pledged to give votes to 16 year olds, reform the House of Lords, and to tax private schools, with money generated going into improving state education.^{[159][160][161]} Plaid Cymru also launched their manifesto on 13 June 2024.^[162]

Halfway through the campaign, psephologist John Curtice summarised the polls as having shown little change in the first two weeks of the campaign, but that they had then shown some clear shifts. Specifically, both the Conservatives and Labour had shown a few percentage points decline, leaving the gap between them unchanged, while Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats had both shown a few percentage points increase, with one YouGov poll published 13 June attracting attention for showing Reform UK above the Conservative Party.^[163][164]

On 23 May, Sky News announced that its election night coverage would be hosted by Kay Burley and Sophy Ridge, with analysis from Andy Burnham and Ruth Davidson.^[165] They will be joined by Beth Rigby, Trevor Phillips, Ed Conway and Sam Coates.^[166] On 24 May, Channel 4 announced that its coverage would be hosted by Krishnan Guru-Murthy and Emily Maitlis, with analysis from Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart.^[165][167] On 28 May, BBC News announced that its coverage would be hosted by Clive Myrie and Laura Kuenssberg, with analysis from Sir John Curtice, Jeremy Vine and Reeta Chakrabarti.^[165][168]

The Conservatives challenged Keir Starmer to six televised debates.^[169] Labour announced that it would not agree to such a proposal, and offered two head-to-head debates—one shown on the BBC, and one shown on ITV; a spokesperson said both networks would offer the greatest audience, and the prospect of any debates on smaller channels would be rejected as it would not be a "valuable use of campaign time". Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey declared his wish to be included in "any televised debates".^[170] Starmer confirmed he would take part in a "leaders' event" hosted by Sky News, in which he would take questions from an audience in Grimsby, and that negotiations were undergoing for Rishi Sunak to also attend.^[171]

On 29 May it was announced that the first leaders debate would be hosted by ITV News and titled "Sunak v Starmer: The ITV Debate" with Julie Etchingham as moderator, on Tuesday 4 June.^[172] Key topics were the cost of living crisis, the NHS, young people, immigration and tax policy.^[173] Sunak asserted that Labour would cost households £2000 more in tax, which Starmer denied. Sunak claimed this figure was calculated by "independent Treasury officials". Fact checkers disputed the sum, noting it was based on assumptions made by political appointees and that the figure was over a 4-year period. On 5 June, the BBC reported that James Bowler, the Treasury permanent secretary, wrote that, "civil servants were not involved in the [...] calculation of the total figure used" and that, "any costings derived from other sources or produced by other organisations should not be presented as having been produced by the Civil Service".^[174] The Office for Statistics Regulation also criticised the claim on the grounds that it was presented without the listener knowing it was a sum over 4 years.^[175] A YouGov snap poll after the debate indicated that 46% of debate viewers thought Sunak had performed better, and 45% believed Starmer had performed better.^[176] A Savanta poll published the next day, however, favoured Starmer 44% to Sunak 39%.^[177]

An STV debate hosted by Colin Mackay took place on 3 June, which included Douglas Ross, Anas Sarwar, John Swinney and Alex Cole-Hamilton.^[178] Another debate between these leaders (also including Lorna Slater) took place on 11 June, on BBC Scotland, hosted by Stephen Jardine.

A BBC debate hosted by Mishal Husain took place on 7 June, which included Nigel Farage, Carla Denyer, Rhun ap Iorwerth, Daisy Cooper, Stephen Flynn, Angela Rayner and Penny Mordaunt.^[179] The debate included exchanges between Mordaunt and Rayner over Labour's tax plans, and all the attendees criticised Sunak leaving the D-Day events early; Farage called Sunak’s actions “disgraceful” and said veterans had been deserted, Cooper said it was "politically shameful" and Mordaunt said Sunak's choice to leave prematurely had been "completely wrong."^[180][181] After the seven-way debate, a snap poll found that viewers considered Farage had won, followed by Rayner, but that Flynn, Denyer and Cooper scored best on doing a good job.^[182] Another debate between these leaders took place on 13 June, with Julie Etchingham as moderator.^[183] The debate included further exchanges between Mordaunt and Rayner over Labour's tax plans.^[184]

On 12 June Sky News hosted a Town hall-style leaders event in Grimsby hosted by Beth Rigby, including Starmer and Sunak, where they took questions from both Rigby and the audience.^[185] The debate covered various topics, including the NHS, the economy, imigration, and their future plans in government. Starmer started the event by saying he was putting the country ahead of his party, bringing Labour "back into the service of working people." He went on to attack the Conservatives on tax policy, saying that "the Tories are in no position to lecture anyone about tax rises". Sunak adopted a defensive stance, saying that "it [hadn't] been an easy 18 months" and was questioned over his early exit from the 80th D-Day anniversary events, as well as the Rwanda asylum plan.^[186] 64% of those questioned by YouGov immediately following the debate said that Starmer had performed better, compared to 36% who said Sunak had performed better.^[187]

Future BBC debates include a Question Time special hosted by Fiona Bruce on 20 June with half an hour given to Sunak, Starmer, Davey and Swinney, a BBC Wales debate on 21 June, and a debate between Sunak and Starmer hosted by Mishal Husain on 26 June.^[188] The final leaders debate in the campaign will be a BBC debate on 27 June involving Northern Irish political parties.^[188]

Newspapers, organisations, and individuals have endorsed parties or individual candidates for the election.

Details on MPs standing down, MPs deselected or seeking a new constituency, MPs standing under a different political affiliation, former MPs seeking to return to Parliament, MPs changing constituencies, and incumbent MPs standing against each other are in the articles on Candidates in the 2024 United Kingdom general election.

In March 2022, Labour abandoned all-women shortlists, citing legal advice that continuing to use them for choosing parliamentary candidates would be an unlawful practice under the Equality Act 2010, since the majority of Labour MPs were now women.^[194] Many by-elections were won by Labour and the Liberal Democrats during the parliament. A record number of Conservative MPs are not standing for re-election.

In March 2024, Reform UK announced an electoral pact with the Northern Irish unionist party TUV.^[195][196] The TUV applied to run candidates as "TUV/Reform UK" on ballot papers, but this was rejected by the Electoral Office.^[197] Farage unilaterally ended this deal by endorsing two competing candidates from the Democratic Unionist Party on 10 June.^[198] Reform UK also announced a pact with the Social Democratic Party (SDP), a minor socially conservative party, in some seats.^[199]

Discussion around the campaign has been focused on the prospect of a change in government. Under Rishi Sunak's leadership, the Conservatives performed poorly at the 2022 and 2023 local elections, where Labour and the Liberal Democrats made gains from Conservatives, often by very wide margins. The parties made further gains in the 2024 local elections.

Under Keir Starmer's leadership, the Labour Party suffered losses in the 2021 local elections but since the end of 2021, the party has consistently polled ahead of the Conservatives, often by very wide margins, including the highest poll lead of any party in over 20 years amid the government crisis during the Truss premiership.^[200][201] During the 2022 local elections, Labour gained 108 seats (22 in England, 20 in Scotland, and 66 in Wales).^[202] During the 2023 local elections, the Labour Party gained more than 500 councillors and 22 councils, becoming the largest party in local government for the first time since 2002.^[203] Labour made further gains in the 2024 local elections and had a greater number of successful candidates than the Conservatives.^[204]

Under Ed Davey's leadership, the Liberal Democrats have made gains in local elections alongside Labour, with both parties making gains in the 2023 local elections and made further gains in the 2024 local elections, where the Liberal Democrats finished second for the first time in a local election cycle since 2009.^[205]

This section is an excerpt from Opinion polling for the 2024 United Kingdom general election § Graphical summaries.[edit]

Opinion polls conducted for the 2024 United Kingdom general election since the 2019 general election with a local regressions (LOESS) trend line for each party.

Opinion polls conducted for the 2024 United Kingdom general election since it was called on 22 May with a local regression (LOESS) trend line for each party.

Projections four weeks before the vote indicated a landslide victory for Labour that would surpass the one achieved under Tony Blair in 1997, and the worst election defeat for the Conservatives since 1906, with even speculation that the Liberal Democrats could potentially become the official opposition,^[3] whilst comparisons have been made in the media to the 1993 Canadian federal election, due to the prospect of a potential Conservative wipeout.^[4][5]

"Others" figure includes the Speaker as well as the various political parties in Northern Ireland.

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