The next Senedd election is due to be held on or before 7 May 2026[1] to elect 96 members to the Senedd (Welsh Parliament; Welsh: Senedd Cymru). It will be the seventh devolved general election since the Senedd (formerly the National Assembly for Wales) was established in 1999. It will also be the second election since the Senedd changed its name in May 2020, and the first following reforms to the voting system which increased the size of the Senedd from 60 members to 96 and shortened its term from five years to four.[2][3]
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Retiring members edit
The following MSs have announced their intention not run for re-election:
| MS | Constituency/Region | First elected | Party | Date announced | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Drakeford | Cardiff West | 2011 | Labour | 9 August 2023[4] | |
Electoral system edit
In all prior elections since its establishment as the Welsh Assembly in 1999, the Senedd has been elected through the additional member system, under which 40 out of 60 seats were elected by the first past the post system from single-member constituencies (the same as those used for Westminster), while the remaining 20 were attributed regionally (in 5 regions of 4 seats) on the basis of a second vote for a closed party list of candidates. The additional member seats in each region were allocated from the lists by the D'Hondt method, with constituency results being taken into account in the allocation.
Following the approval of the Senedd Reform Bill, the size of the Senedd will be increased from 60 to 96 MSs, all elected through closed party list proportional representation (using the D'Hondt method). The elections will be organised in 16 six-member constituencies created by pairing up the 32 redrawn Westminster constituencies.[5][6] Another reform bill, which is yet to be adopted as of May 2024, would provide for mandatory "zipping" of male and female candidates in the list to ensure that for every party, half of the Members will be women (unlike the voluntary all-women shortlists used by the Liberal Democrats and until 2022 the Labour Party).
Opinion polling edit
| Dates conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample size | Lab | Con | Plaid Cymru | Green | Lib Dems | AWA | UKIP | Reform | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5–7 Jun 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 960 | 36% | 22% | 18% | 6% | 6% | 2% | – | 11% | 0% | 14 |
| 30 May – 3 Jun 2024 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,066 | 30% | 19% | 23% | 6% | 6% | – | – | 12% | 4% | 7 |
| 18–19 May 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 900 | 37% | 20% | 20% | 5% | 3% | 5% | – | 10% | 0% | 17 |
| 8 May 2024 | The Senedd Reform Bill is approved, implementing a new one-list electoral system. | ||||||||||||
Past opinion polling edit
The following polls used questions designed for the two forms of voting in previous Senedd elections, that are to be abolished in the next Senedd election.
Regional vote edit
| Dates conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample size | Lab | Con | Plaid Cymru | Green | Lib Dems | AWA | UKIP | Reform | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22–23 Apr 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 840 | 33% | 18% | 19% | 6% | 7% | 4% | – | 12% | 1% | 14 |
| 23–24 Mar 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 878 | 32% | 16% | 18% | 9% | 7% | 6% | – | 11% | 1% | 14 |
| 20 Mar 2024 | Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales[7] | ||||||||||||
| 18 Feb 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 874 | 29% | 16% | 25% | 4% | 8% | 7% | – | 10% | 1% | 4 |
| 24–26 Jan 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,100 | 34% | 19% | 21% | 6% | 6% | 6% | – | 7% | 1% | 13 |
| 10–11 Dec 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,086 | 28% | 20% | 24% | 7% | 8% | 4% | – | 7% | 1% | 4 |
| 12–13 Nov 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,100 | 32% | 21% | 18% | 9% | 6% | 5% | – | 7% | 1% | 11 |
| 14–15 Oct 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 959 | 31% | 21% | 24% | 4% | 5% | 7% | – | 8% | – | 10 |
| 16–17 Sep 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,172 | 35% | 21% | 18% | 6% | 12% | 2% | – | 5% | 1% | 14 |
| 1–6 Sep 2023 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,051 | 34% | 16% | 20% | 6% | 6% | 9% | 1% | 6% | 2% | 14 |
| 13–14 Aug 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,068 | 31% | 19% | 22% | 6% | 10% | – | – | 10% | 3% | 9 |
| 14–16 Jul 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,050 | 33% | 20% | 19% | 6% | 10% | – | – | 6% | 4% | 13 |
| 17–18 Jun 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,000 | 30% | 22% | 20% | 6% | 9% | – | – | 8% | 4% | 8 |
| 12–17 May 2023 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,064 | 36% | 16% | 18% | 7% | 7% | 5% | 1% | 7% | 1% | 18 |
| 14–15 May 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,058 | 30% | 21% | 24% | 4% | 10% | – | – | 8% | 4% | 6 |
| 15–17 Apr 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,251 | 32% | 22% | 23% | 7% | 8% | – | – | 7% | 2% | 9 |
| 3–7 Feb 2023 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,081 | 39% | 18% | 20% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 0% | 6% | 1% | 19 |
| 25 Nov – 1 Dec 2022 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,042 | 38% | 16% | 23% | 5% | 4% | 8% | 2% | 4% | 2% Gwlad on 1% Other on 1% | 15 |
| 20–22 Sep 2022 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,014 | 37% | 18% | 21% | 5% | 5% | 7% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 16 |
| 12–16 Jun 2022 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,020 | 31% | 21% | 24% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 2% | 6% | 2% Gwlad on 1% Other on 1% | 7 |
| 25 Feb – 1 Mar 2022 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,086 | 34% | 23% | 20% | 4% | 6% | 6% | 1% | 3% | 2% Gwlad on 1% Other on 1% | 11 |
| 13–16 Dec 2021 | YouGov | ITV Wales | 1,009 | 35% | 22% | 19% | 7% | 3% | 6% | 2% | 5% | 1% | 13 |
| 13–16 Sep 2021 | YouGov | ITV Wales | 1,057 | 33% | 26% | 19% | 5% | 4% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 7 |
| 6 May 2021 | 2021 Senedd election[8] | – | 36.2% | 25.1% | 20.7% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 2.9% | 11.1 | |
Constituency vote edit
| Dates conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample size | Lab | Con | Plaid Cymru | Lib Dems | AWA | Green | Reform | Other | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 May 2024 | The Senedd Reform Bill is approved, abolishing the constituency component of the Senedd | |||||||||||
| 22–23 Apr 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 840 | 37% | 21% | 22% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 10% | 0% | 15 |
| 23–24 Mar 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 878 | 36% | 21% | 21% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 11% | 1% | 15 |
| 20 Mar 2024 | Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales[7] | |||||||||||
| 18 Feb 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 874 | 34% | 21% | 19% | 4% | 6% | 3% | 13% | 0% | 13 |
| 24–26 Jan 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,100 | 39% | 25% | 18% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 9% | 1% | 14 |
| 10–11 Dec 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,086 | 41% | 22% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 3% | 7% | 0% | 19 |
| 12–13 Nov 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,100 | 40% | 23% | 18% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 7% | 1% | 17 |
| 14–15 Oct 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 959 | 37% | 27% | 18% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 6% | - | 10 |
| 16–17 Sep 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,172 | 39% | 27% | 18% | 5% | 1% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 12 |
| 1–6 Sep 2023 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,051 | 41% | 18% | 19% | 6% | – | 4% | 8% | 7% | 22 |
| 13–14 Aug 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,068 | 37% | 21% | 20% | 6% | – | 3% | 9% | 4% | 16 |
| 14–16 Jul 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,050 | 42% | 22% | 16% | 6% | – | 3% | 7% | 3% | 20 |
| 17–18 Jun 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,000 | 36% | 22% | 19% | 7% | – | 3% | 10% | 3% | 14 |
| 12–17 May 2023 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,064 | 40% | 18% | 17% | 7% | – | 5% | 8% | 4% | 22 |
| 14–15 May 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,058 | 38% | 23% | 20% | 7% | – | 3% | 7% | 2% | 15 |
| 15–17 Apr 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,251 | 41% | 21% | 20% | 5% | – | 4% | 8% | 2% | 20 |
| 3–7 Feb 2023 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,081 | 43% | 18% | 20% | 4% | – | 4% | 9% | 1% | 23 |
| 25 Nov – 1 Dec 2022 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,042 | 44% | 17% | 20% | 6% | – | 3% | 7% | 4% | 24 |
| 20–22 Sep 2022 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,014 | 40% | 20% | 22% | 6% | – | 3% | 5% | 4% | 18 |
| 12–16 Jun 2022 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,020 | 37% | 24% | 21% | 6% | – | 5% | 5% | 3% | 13 |
| 25 Feb – 1 Mar 2022 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,086 | 38% | 24% | 21% | 6% | – | 3% | 5% | 4% | 14 |
| 13–16 Dec 2021 | YouGov | ITV Wales | 1,009 | 40% | 23% | 17% | 4% | – | 5% | 7% | 4% | 17 |
| 13–16 Sep 2021 | YouGov | ITV Wales | 1,057 | 37% | 27% | 19% | 5% | – | 4% | 5% | 5% | 10 |
| 6 May 2021 | 2021 Senedd election[8] | – | 39.9% | 26.1% | 20.3% | 4.9% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 4.0% | 13.8 | |
See also edit
References edit
- ^ Owens, Cathy (8 September 2021). "What to expect from the next five years in Welsh politics". WalesOnline. Retrieved 29 September 2021.
- ^ MSs approve Senedd reform bill - nation.cymru
- ^ Plans for more Senedd politicians get go-ahead - BBC
- ^ "Mark Drakeford to quit Senedd at next election". BBC News. 9 August 2023. Retrieved 9 August 2023.
- ^ "Plans for more Senedd politicians get go-ahead". BBC News. 17 May 2022. Retrieved 14 June 2022.
- ^ "Senedd reform | GOV.WALES". www.gov.wales. 9 May 2024. Retrieved 17 May 2024.
- ^ a b "Vaughan Gething confirmed as Wales' new first minister". BBC News. 19 March 2024. Retrieved 20 March 2024.
- ^ a b Davies, Owain; Holzinger, Owen; McCarthy, Joanne; Jones, Helen (2021). Senedd Election 2021: Research Briefing (PDF). Senedd Research. p. 16.