2024 Bulgarian parliamentary election

Following several snap elections, the Bulgarian National Assembly had failed to put together a long-lasting government since 'anti-corruption' parties made a breakthrough in the April 2021 election.^[3][4] The 2023 election saw little change from 2022, with Boyko Borisov's centre-right GERB–SDS narrowly coming in first place, above the centrist PP–DB alliance. The far right Revival (VAZ) and the populist There is Such a People (ITN) made gains, with the latter re-entering the Assembly after it failed to reach the electoral threshold in 2022.^[5][6]

On 22 May 2023, the PP- and GERB-led alliances agreed to form a government with a rotational premiership. Nikolai Denkov, PP's candidate, would be the Prime Minister for the first nine months of the government and Mariya Gabriel, the GERB candidate, would serve as deputy prime minister and foreign affairs minister. After nine months, the two would switch positions.^[7]

Denkov resigned in accordance with the rotation agreement on 5 March, to allow Gabriel to become the new Prime Minister.^[8] On 20 March 2024, the planned government rotation and signing of a renewed government failed due to disagreements between the two alliances on the cabinet and breaking down of relations.^[9][10][11] Negotiations ensued across to form a new government,^[12] but failed to produce any governments that could reach a majority support.^{[13][14][15][16]} GERB rejected the chance to form a government. PP–DB made a limited attempt to respect the original rotation agreement. The final chance to form a government, chosen by president Rumen Radev, went to ITN, which was immediately rejected.^{[17][18][19][20]}

On 29 March, as per Article 98 of the constitution,^[21] the President appointed the Chairman of the National Audit Office, Dimitar Glavchev, as the candidate for caretaker prime minister.^[22] He was granted a one week deadline of until 6 April to propose the composition of the caretaker government.^[23]

Glavchev presented his proposal for the caretaker government on 5 April,^[24] accepted by the President following negotiations and scheduling the election for 9 June.^[25][26] Glavchev and his cabinet were inaugurated on 9 April by the National Assembly.^[27]

The Central Election Commission announced the campaign would begin at midday on 10 May and end at midnight on 7 June.^[28]

The current 49th Parliament was to stay in session at least until the election campaign begins, where a decision of election recess is expected to be adopted by Parliament. The 49th Parliament suspended its normal working process by an adopted election recess on 27 April. While on election recess the 49th Parliament could reconvene for an extraordinary sitting in exceptional circumstances. The 50th Parliament will replace the 49th Parliament as soon as the newly elected members are sworn in after the election.^[29]

On election day, polling opened at 07:00 and closed at 20:00.^[30]

The table below lists the political party groups represented in the 49th National Assembly.^{[citation needed]}

Below is the official list of parties and coalitions that registered lists for the Bulgarian Parliamentary elections.^[31]

The following list present the official campaign slogans and websites of parties that contested the 2024 Bulgarian parliamentary election:

On 3 April, the head of the Customs Agency, Petya Bankova, along with her deputy, and two others were arrested in relation to their alleged participation in an organised criminal group dealing blackmarket tobacco products.^[32] Following the arrests, Secretary of the Ministry of Interior Zhivko Kotsev announced his resignation, with PP–DB leaders suggesting this had been coerced.^[33] A day later, Kotsev withdrew his resignation in a joint-briefing with acting Prime Minister Nikolay Denkov where they repeated the claim.^[34]

Photos including the suspects and PP–DB-affiliated politicians were leaked, and Parliament formed a commission to investigate the scandal. Controversially, one of its aims was to investigate the role of PP co-leader Asen Vasilev in the affair.^[35][36] The commission heard claims that the PP–DB politicians were involved.^[37] These claims were disputed, and former PP interior minister Boyko Rashkov claimed those alleging the link were themselves involved in the scandal.^[38] Vasilev also appeared before the committee, denying any wrong doing or connections with the named suspects.^[39]

On 25 April, the committee published its report, which claimed to prove Asen Vasilev's role within the scheme.^[40]

The events of the scandal, despite occurring outside the election campaign period, were identified by some analysts as signalling the "beginning" of the pre-election campaign.^[41] Additionally, the scandal was used in the campaign, notably by ITN, in order to attack PP–DB.^[42]

In early March, an alleged copy of the roadmap for the construction of the TurkStream (also known as the "Balkan Stream") gas pipeline through Bulgaria was released by the investigative newspaper, BG Elves.^[43] It suggested that the main role in the construction of the pipeline was undertaken by Russian firms, additionally it demonstrated that the pipeline's construction directly served Russian interests.^[44] The pipeline was given approval by the Third Borisov government.

PP–DB accused GERB of helping Russia build a new pathway for natural gas circumventing Ukraine, thus enabling the Russian invasion of Ukraine.^[45] A parliamentary committee was formed to investigate the leak, however, its work ended up being hindered due to partisan gridlock.^[46]

As had occured previously during the government formation of the Denkov Government, audio recordings by senior PP–DB figures were allegedly leaked. One, published on the online newspaper Afera, was from a PP leadership meeting where they discussed illegal party finance methods.^[47] PP–DB representatives claimed this recording was taken out of context.^[48]

As part of their campaign, PP–DB released a billboard containing the image of former Prime Minister Denkov, on one side, and the leaders of GERB and DPS, Borisov and Peevski, on the other, with a sign asking "who do you want to be prime minister?". The sign was promptly removed after a legal complaint by GERB, who claimed the billboard denigrated the person of Boyko Borisov.^[49] In a campaign meeting, Borisov called Denkov's behaviour as offensive, and claimed that this demonstrated that Denkov was unfit to be prime minister.^[50]

During the election campaign, GERB, specifically Delyan Dobrev consistently criticised the policies of Asen Vasilev, accusing him of increasing the public debt and increasing inflation, while not doing enough to attract investment.^[51] Borisov declared that if GERB were to come to power they would implement a more "strict" fiscal policy.^[52]

PP–DB, on the other hand, defended the track record of Asen Vasilev, pointing to an increase in incomes.^[53] They further accused GERB of trying to add spending outside of that set aside by the budget in order to sabotage Bulgaria's entrance into the Eurozone.^[54]

Parties on the left, such as BSP, Levitsata and Solidary Bulgaria, generally supported the implementation of a progressive tax system, with BSP, for example, advocating for a tax break for all those under 26.^[55]

The right-wing coalition, Blue Bulgaria, called for less state involvement in the economy, with government finance instead being focused on healthcare, education and security.^[56]

One of the key policy issues which dominated the elections was Bulgaria's position on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. A number of parties (specifically, Revival, BSP, Levitsata!, Solidary Bulgaria and Velichie) advocated for Bulgaria to not send lethal aid to Ukraine and supported paying Russia for gas.^[57][58]

Due to the continous political instability in Bulgaria, ever since the April 2021 Bulgarian parliamentary election, post-election government formations has been one of the key topics of the election campaign.

GERB, shortly after the collapse of government negotiations following the Denkov government's resignation, had indicated that they would re-initiate negotiations with PP–DB, albeit conditional on a "new approach" from the PP–DB leadership.^[59] However, they became more hostile to PP–DB, especially after they supported a motion to oust the GERB speaker of the National Assembly.^[60] Boyko Borisov, GERB's leader, made clear that they would not govern solely with DPS.^[61] On 24 May, Borisov announced that GERB should take a "leading role" in any future government.^[62]

PP–DB expressed a willingness to negotiate a coalition government with GERB, however it excluded the possibility of any involvement from Delyan Peevski in a future government, thus excluding DPS.^[63] During an interview with BTV, former Prime Minister Nikolay Denkov stated that PP–DB would not form a government which involved either Boyko Borisov or Delyan Peevski.^[64]

Delyan Peevski, on his part, did not exclude his party's participation in either a GERB-led or PP–DB-led government, claiming he had a stable working relationship with both PP leader Kiril Petkov and Boyko Borisov.^[65]

A number of parties promised during the campaign period promised they would not enter any informal governing arrangements with GERB, DPS or PP–DB. Specifically, BSP leader, Korneliya Ninova, highlighted her party as the "only one" which had not engaged in any such deals with GERB.^[66] Solidary Bulgaria candidate, and Stand Up.BG leader, Maya Manolova promised that Solidary, if they entered parliament, would not govern with GERB, DPS or PP–DB.^[67]

Local regression of polls conducted, excluding "none of the above"

The opinion poll results below were recalculated from the original data and exclude polls that chose "I will not vote" or "I am uncertain" options.

121 seats are needed for a parliamentary majority.

The results showed that no party attained a majority in the National Assembly, with GERB attaining a plurality of seats. Turnout was 33 percent, the lowest since the end of communist rule in 1989.^[57][68]

Party		Votes	%	Seats	+/–
	GERB–SDS	530,658	23.99	68	−1
	Movement for Rights and Freedoms	366,310	16.56	47	+11
	We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria	307,849	13.92	39	−25
	Revival	295,915	13.38	38	+1
	BSP for Bulgaria	151,560	6.85	19	−4
	There is Such a People	128,007	5.79	16	+5
	Velichie	99,862	4.52	13	New
	Morality, Unity, Honour [bg]	63,992	2.89	0	New
	Blue Bulgaria [bg]	33,613	1.52	0	New
	Solidary Bulgaria	31,476	1.42	0	New
	Center	25,664	1.16	0	New
	VMRO – Bulgarian National Movement	21,272	0.96	0	0
	The Left!	15,175	0.69	0	0
	Bulgarian Rise	12,322	0.56	0	0
	Green Movement	9,324	0.42	0	0
	People's Voice	6,560	0.30	0	0
	We Are Coming	5,939	0.27	0	New
	Party of the Greens [bg]	5,494	0.25	0	0
	Direct Democracy [bg]	5,207	0.24	0	0
	Unification	5,206	0.24	0	New
	We the Citizens	4,662	0.21	0	New
	Bulgarian Voice	3,378	0.15	0	New
	Citizens Bloc	3,003	0.14	0	New
	People's Party "Truth and Only the Truth" [bg]	2,483	0.11	0	0
	Neutral Bulgaria	2,462	0.11	0	0
	Coalition of the Rose [bg]	2,206	0.10	0	New
	Society for a New Bulgaria [bg]	2,249	0.10	0	0
	Bulgarian National Union – New Democracy	2,128	0.10	0	0
	For a Great Bulgaria	1,893	0.09	0	New
	Bulgarian Union for Direct Democracy [bg]	946	0.04	0	0
	Bulgarian National Unification	920	0.04	0	0
None of the above		63,913	2.89	–	–
Total		2,211,648	100.00	240	0
Valid votes		2,211,648	97.42
Invalid/blank votes		58,496	2.58
Total votes		2,270,144	100.00
Registered voters/turnout		6,797,698	33.40
Source: Central Electoral Commission

GERB–SDS leader Boyko Borisov thanked voters for the party's performance in the election.^[68] Kiril Petkov conceded and announced PP–DB would form a constructive opposition to the government once it is formed.^[69]

Both Korneliya Ninova, the leader of the BSP, and Hristo Ivanov, leader of DaB!, resigned following the results.^[70]

The leader of the DPS, Delyan Peevski, called for discussions between all "Euro-Atlantic" parties.^[70]

GERB said that they were seeking to form an "expert" government and dominate key ministries, including the office of Prime Minister. However, Borisov announced that he did not want the position.^[71][72] The BSP leadership suggested they could support an expert cabinet.^[70]

The Bulgarian newspaper Dnevnik set out the following scenarios:^[73]

On 17 June, GERB began the negotiations with other parties, inviting all to discussions over the following two days.^[74] PP–DB, BSP and VAZ refused to attend the negotiations, so there was only a meeting between GERB and DPS on the first day;^[75] both parties suggested they would be ready to form a government in coalition.