The 2020 United States presidential election in Michigan was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[3] Michigan voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump of Florida, and his running mate, Vice President Mike Pence of Indiana against the Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden of Delaware, and his running mate, Senator Kamala Harris of California. Michigan had 16 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[4]
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In 2016, Trump became the first Republican to carry Michigan since 1988, when George H. W. Bush had scored a decisive nationwide win against Michael Dukakis.[5] Throughout the campaign, Biden touted his work on the auto bailout in manufacturing towns outside Detroit. Appearing with United Auto Workers, Biden presented a new proposal to penalize American companies for moving manufacturing and service jobs overseas and then selling their products back in the United States.[6] Polls of Michigan throughout the campaign generally indicated a clear Biden lead. Prior to election day, most news organizations considered Michigan a likely blue state, or a state that Biden was likely to win.
Biden ultimately carried Michigan by 2.78%, a far closer margin than expected. Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Biden's strength in Michigan came from union households, who composed 21% of the electorate and supported Biden by 56%–42%. Biden was also able to boost minority turnout, consequently winning 93% of Black American voters.[7] Many voters were also concerned with the COVID-19 pandemic, which had hit the state hard; 52% of voters felt the pandemic was not under control at all, and these voters broke for Biden by 82%–16%. Trump outperformed his polling average in the state, but it was not enough to win. Michigan marked Biden's strongest performance in a state that Trump carried in 2016, even voting to the left of Nevada which Trump failed to carry in said election.
Biden flipped the counties of Leelanau, Kent, and Saginaw and became the first Democrat since Woodrow Wilson in 1916 to win the presidency without winning Bay or Gogebic Counties, the first Democrat since Harry S. Truman in 1948 to win without Monroe County, the first Democrat since John F. Kennedy in 1960 to win without Lake County and the first Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1976 to win without Calhoun, Isabella, Manistee, Shiawassee, or Van Buren Counties.
With Ohio, Florida, and Iowa backing the losing candidate for the first time since 1960, 1992, and 2000 respectively, this election established Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania as the states with the longest bellwether streak still in effect today. The last time any of them voted against the winning candidate was 2004, when all three voted for losing Democrat John Kerry.
Michigan's overall vote in for this election was 1.6% more Republican than the nation-at-large.
Primary elections
editThe primary elections were on March 10, 2020.
Republican primary
editIncumbent United States President Donald Trump was challenged by three candidates: former governor Mark Sanford of South Carolina, former congressman Joe Walsh of Illinois, and former governor Bill Weld of Massachusetts. Sanford and Walsh both withdrew prior to the primary. Michigan is the only primary state where Sanford's name remained on the ballot.[8]
| Candidate | Votes | % | Estimated delegates |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 640,552 | 93.7% | 73 |
| Uncommitted | 32,743 | 4.8% | 0 |
| Bill Weld | 6,099 | 0.9% | 0 |
| Mark Sanford (withdrawn) | 4,258 | 0.6% | 0 |
| Joe Walsh (withdrawn) | 4,067 | 0.6% | 0 |
| Total | 683,431 | 100% | 73 |
Democratic primary
editBernie Sanders and former Vice President Joe Biden were the two major declared Democratic candidates.[10]
| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates[12] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 840,360 | 52.93 | 73 |
| Bernie Sanders | 576,926 | 36.34 | 52 |
| Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn)[a] | 73,464 | 4.63 | |
| Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn)[a] | 26,148 | 1.65 | |
| Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)[b] | 22,462 | 1.41 | |
| Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn)[b] | 11,018 | 0.69 | |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 9,461 | 0.60 | |
| Andrew Yang (withdrawn)[c] | 2,380 | 0.15 | |
| Tom Steyer (withdrawn)[b] | 1,732 | 0.11 | |
| Michael Bennet (withdrawn)[c] | 1,536 | 0.10 | |
| Cory Booker (withdrawn) | 840 | 0.05 | |
| Joe Sestak (withdrawn) | 757 | 0.05 | |
| Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) | 719 | 0.05 | |
| John Delaney (withdrawn)[d] | 464 | 0.03 | |
| Julian Castro (withdrawn) | 306 | 0.02 | |
| Uncommitted | 19,106 | 1.20 | |
| Total | 1,587,679 | 100% | 125 |
General election
editFinal predictions
edit| Source | Ranking |
|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[13] | Lean D (flip) |
| Inside Elections[14] | Lean D (flip) |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] | Lean D (flip) |
| Politico[16] | Lean D (flip) |
| RCP[17] | Tossup |
| Niskanen[18] | Likely D (flip) |
| CNN[19] | Lean D (flip) |
| The Economist[20] | Likely D (flip) |
| CBS News[21] | Lean D (flip) |
| 270towin[22] | Lean D (flip) |
| ABC News[23] | Lean D (flip) |
| NPR[24] | Lean D (flip) |
| NBC News[25] | Lean D (flip) |
| 538[26] | Solid D (flip) |
Polling
editGraphical summary
editGraphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Aggregate polls
edit| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Joe Biden Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Other/ Undecided [e] | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270 to Win | October 22 – November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 49.9% | 44.4% | 5.7% | Biden +5.5 |
| Real Clear Politics | October 29 – November 1, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 50.0% | 45.8% | 4.2% | Biden +4.2 |
| FiveThirtyEight | until November 1, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 51.2% | 43.2% | 5.6% | Biden +7.9 |
| Average | 50.4% | 44.5% | 5.1% | Biden +5.9 | ||
2020 polls
edit| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[f] | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Jo Jorgensen Libertarian | Howie Hawkins Green | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Oct 20 – Nov 2 | 4,549 (LV) | ± 2% | 46%[g] | 52% | - | - | – | – |
| Research Co. | Oct 31 – Nov 1 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 43% | 50% | - | - | 2%[h] | 5% |
| Change Research/CNBC | Oct 29 – Nov 1 | 383 (LV) | ± 5.01% | 44% | 51% | 3% | 1% | – | 1% |
| Swayable Archived November 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine | Oct 27 – Nov 1 | 413 (LV) | ± 6.5% | 45% | 54% | 1% | 0% | – | – |
| Ipsos/Reuters | Oct 27 – Nov 1 | 654 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 43%[i] | 53% | 1% | 0% | 2%[j] | – |
| 42%[k] | 52% | - | - | 3%[l] | 3% | ||||
| 45%[m] | 53% | - | - | 2%[n] | – | ||||
| Trafalgar Group | Oct 30–31 | 1,033 (LV) | ± 2.97% | 48% | 46% | 2% | - | 1% | 3% |
| AtlasIntel | Oct 30–31 | 686 (LV) | ± 4% | 46% | 48% | - | - | 6% | – |
| Insider Advantage/Center for American Greatness[A] | Oct 30–31 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 49% | 2% | - | – | 3% |
| Morning Consult | Oct 22–31 | 1,736 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 44.5% | 52% | - | - | – | – |
| Emerson College | Oct 29–30 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 45%[o] | 52% | - | - | 3%[p] | – |
| Public Policy Polling/Progress Michigan[B] | Oct 29–30 | 745 (V) | ± 3.6% | 44% | 54% | 1% | 0% | – | 1% |
| Targoz Market Research/PollSmart | Oct 25–30 | 993 (LV) | – | 39% | 53% | - | - | 8%[q] | – |
| CNN/SSRS Archived October 31, 2020, at the Wayback Machine | Oct 23–30 | 907 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 41% | 53% | 2% | 1% | 1%[r] | 2% |
| Mitchell Research (R)/MIRS | Oct 29 | 817 (LV) | ± 3.43% | 45% | 52% | 1% | 1% | 0%[s] | 0% |
| RMG Research/PoliticalIQ | Oct 27–29 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 44%[i] | 51% | - | - | 3% | 2% |
| 42%[t] | 53% | - | - | 3% | 2% | ||||
| 45%[u] | 50% | - | - | 3% | 2% | ||||
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | Oct 26–29 | 1,212 (LV) | – | 41% | 54% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 4% |
| EPIC-MRA | Oct 25–28 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 41% | 48% | - | - | 5%[v] | 6%[w] |
| Trafalgar Group | Oct 25–28 | 1,058 (LV) | ± 2.93% | 49% | 47% | 2% | - | 1%[x] | 1% |
| Kiaer Research | Oct 21–28 | 669 (LV) | ± 5.6% | 41% | 54% | - | - | 2%[y] | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Oct 1–28, 2020 | 7,541 (LV) | – | 45% | 53% | - | - | – | – |
| Mitchell Research (R)/MIRS Archived October 29, 2020, at the Wayback Machine | Oct 25–27 | 759 (LV) | ± 3.56% | 42% | 52% | 3% | 0% | 0%[z] | 2% |
| Swayable | Oct 23–26, 2020 | 394 (LV) | ± 6.7% | 40% | 59% | 2% | 0% | – | – |
| Siena College/NYT Upshot | Oct 23–26 | 856 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 41% | 49% | 2% | 1% | 0%[aa] | 6%[w] |
| Ipsos/Reuters | Oct 20–26 | 652 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 43%[i] | 53% | 1% | 0% | 2%[j] | – |
| 43%[k] | 52% | - | - | 3%[l] | 3% | ||||
| Wick Surveys | Oct 24–25 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 48% | 48% | - | - | – | – |
| Glengariff Group/Detroit News | Oct 23–25 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 42% | 49% | - | - | 2%[ab] | 4% |
| ABC/Washington Post | Oct 20–25 | 789 (LV) | ± 4% | 44% | 51% | 3% | 0% | 0%[ac] | 1% |
| Gravis Marketing | Oct 24 | 679 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 42% | 55% | - | - | – | 3% |
| Public Policy Polling/American Bridge PAC[C] | Oct 21–22 | 804 (V) | – | 43% | 50% | - | - | – | 6% |
| YouGov/University of Wisconsin-Madison | Oct 13–21 | 681 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 42% | 52% | - | - | 5%[ad] | – |
| Citizen Data | Oct 17–20 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 41% | 50% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 7% |
| Fox News | Oct 17–20 | 1,032 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 52% | 3% | 0% | 2%[ae] | 3% |
| Ipsos/Reuters | Oct 14–20 | 686 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 44%[i] | 52% | 2% | 0% | 2%[j] | – |
| 44%[k] | 51% | - | - | 3%[l] | 2% | ||||
| Morning Consult | Oct 11–20 | 1,717 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 44% | 52% | - | - | – | – |
| Change Research/CNBC | Oct 16–19 | 718 (LV)[af] | – | 44% | 51% | - | - | – | – |
| EPIC-MRA | Oct 15–19 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 39% | 48% | - | - | 5%[ag] | 8%[w] |
| Mitchell Research (R)/MIRS | Oct 18 | 900 (LV) | ± 3.27% | 41% | 51% | 3% | 1% | 1%[x] | 3% |
| Trafalgar Group/Restoration PAC[D] | Oct 15–18 | 1,034 (LV) | ± 2.97% | 47% | 45% | 3% | 2% | 2%[h] | 2% |
| Data For Progress | Oct 15–18 | 830 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 45% | 50% | 2% | 0% | – | 3% |
| Zia Poll/Painter Communications/MIRS News | Oct 11–18 | 2,851 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 49% | 45% | - | - | 2% | 3% |
| HarrisX/The Hill | Oct 12–15 | 1,289 (LV) | – | 43% | 54% | - | - | – | – |
| Trafalgar Group | Oct 11–14 | 1,025 (LV) | ± 2.97% | 47% | 46% | 3% | 2% | 2%[h] | 2% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | Oct 10–13 | 972 (LV) | – | 42%[af] | 51% | 1% | 0% | – | – |
| RMG Research/PoliticalIQ | Oct 8–13 | 800 (LV) | – | 42%[i] | 48% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 5% |
| 39%[t] | 51% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 5% | ||||
| 44%[u] | 46% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 5% | ||||
| Ipsos/Reuters | Oct 7–13 | 620 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 44%[i] | 51% | 2% | 1% | 2%[ah] | – |
| 43%[k] | 51% | - | - | 3%[l] | 2% | ||||
| EPIC-MRA/Detroit Free Press | Oct 8–12 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 39% | 48% | - | - | 4%[ai] | 9%[w] |
| Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising[E] | Oct 8–11 | 543 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 43% | 52% | - | - | 4%[aj] | 2% |
| Siena College/NYT Upshot | Oct 6–11 | 614 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 40% | 48% | 1% | 1% | 1%[ak] | 8%[w] |
| Morning Consult | Oct 2–11 | 1,710 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 44% | 51% | - | - | – | – |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | Oct 9–10 | 827 (LV) | – | 41%[af] | 51% | 2% | 1% | – | – |
| YouGov/CBS | Oct 6–9 | 1,190 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 46% | 52% | - | - | 2%[al] | 0% |
| Baldwin Wallace University | Sep 30 – Oct 8 | 1,134 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 43% | 50% | 1% | 1% | 0%[am] | 4% |
| Emerson College | Oct 6–7 | 716 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 43%[o] | 54% | - | - | 2%[h] | – |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | Oct 4–6 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 42% | 50% | 1% | 0% | 1%[an] | 6% |
| Opinion Insight/American Action Forum[F] | Oct 3–6 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.46% | 44%[o] | 52% | - | - | 2% | 3% |
| Ipsos/Reuters | Sep 29 – Oct 6 | 709 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 43% | 51% | - | - | 2%[ao] | 3% |
| Change Research/CNBC | Oct 2–4 | 676 (LV) | – | 43% | 51% | - | - | – | – |
| Glengariff Group/Detroit News | Sep 30 – Oct 3 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 39% | 48% | - | - | 5%[ap] | 7% |
| Public Policy Polling/Progress Michigan[B] | Sep 30 – Oct 1 | 746 (V) | – | 44% | 50% | 2% | 1% | – | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Sep 1–30 | 3,297 (LV) | – | 44% | 53% | - | - | – | 3% |
| Trafalgar Group/Restoration PAC[D] | Sep 26–28 | 1,042 (LV) | ± 2.95% | 47% | 49% | 2% | 0% | 1%[x] | 2% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | Sep 23–26 | 785 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | 51% | 1% | 0% | 0%[aq] | 6% |
| Marist College/NBC | Sep 19–23 | 799 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 44% | 52% | - | - | 1% | 3% |
| ALG Research/Committee to Protect Medicare[G] | Sep 17–23 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 44% | 52% | - | - | – | – |
| Trafalgar Group | Sep 20–22 | 1,015 (LV) | ± 2.99% | 46.7% | 46.0% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 1.2%[ar] | 3.2% |
| Baldwin Wallace University | Sep 9–22 | 1,001 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 42% | 50% | 1% | 0% | 1%[as] | 6% |
| YouGov/UW-Madison Elections Research Center/Wisconsin State Journal | Sep 10–21 | 641 (LV) | – | 45% | 51% | - | - | – | – |
| Change Research/CNBC | Sep 18–20 | 568 (LV) | – | 43% | 51% | - | - | – | – |
| Hart Research Associates/Human Rights Campaign[permanent dead link][H] | Sep 17–19 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 45% | 50% | - | - | – | – |
| Data for Progress (D) | Sep 14–19 | 455 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 42%[i] | 48% | 1% | 0% | – | 9% |
| 44%[at] | 50% | - | - | – | 6% | ||||
| MRG | Sep 14–19 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 41% | 46% | - | - | 8%[au] | 5% |
| Ipsos/Reuters | Sep 11–16 | 637 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 49% | - | - | 2%[ao] | 4% |
| Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising[E] | Sep 11–15 | 517 (RV) | – | 42% | 53% | - | - | 3%[p] | 1% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | Sep 12–14 | 930 (LV) | ± 3.21% | 39% | 49% | 2% | 1% | 0%[aq] | 9% |
| EPIC-MRA | Sep 10–15 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 40% | 48% | - | - | 5%[ag] | 7%[w] |
| Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group/AARP | Aug 28 – Sep 8 | 1,600 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 43% | 50% | - | - | 1%[av] | 5% |
| Morning Consult | Aug 29 – Sep 7 | 1,455 (LV) | ± (2%–4%) | 42%[aw] | 52% | - | - | – | – |
| Change Research/CNBC | Sep 4–6 | 876 (LV) | – | 43% | 49% | - | - | 7%[ax] | – |
| Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports[1] | Sep 2–3 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3% | 44%[o] | 53% | - | - | 3%[ay] | – |
| Glengariff Group | Sep 1–3 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 42% | 47% | - | - | 4%[az] | 7% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | Aug 30 – Sep 3 | 967 (LV) | ± 3.15% | 40% | 51% | 1% | 0% | 1%[an] | 7% |
| Opinion Insight/American Action Forum[F] | Aug 30 – Sep 2 | 802 (LV) | ± 3.46% | 44%[o] | 51% | 2% | 1% | 0%[ba] | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Aug 1–31 | 2,962 (LV) | – | 48% | 49% | - | - | – | 3% |
| Morning Consult | Aug 21–30 | 1,424 (LV) | ± (2%–4%) | 42% | 52% | - | - | – | – |
| Public Policy Polling/Progress Michigan[B] | Aug 28–29 | 897 (V) | – | 44% | 48% | 3% | 1% | – | 3% |
| Change Research/CNBC | Aug 21–23 | 809 (LV) | – | 44% | 50% | - | - | – | – |
| Trafalgar Group | Aug 14–23 | 1,048 (LV) | ± 2.98% | 47% | 45% | 3% | - | 1%[bb] | 4% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | Aug 16–19 | 812 (LV) | – | 38% | 50% | 1% | 1% | 1%[bc] | 9% |
| Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising[E] | Aug 13–17 | 631 (RV) | – | 46% | 49% | - | - | 3%[p] | 1% |
| Morning Consult | Aug 7–16 | 1,212 (LV) | ± (2%–4%) | 44% | 50% | - | - | – | – |
| Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC[D] | Aug 11–15 | 600 (LV) | – | 41% | 52% | - | - | – | 7% |
| Change Research/CNBC | Aug 7–9 | 413 (LV) | – | 43% | 48% | - | - | – | – |
| YouGov/University of Wisconsin-Madison | Jul 27 – Aug 6 | 761 (RV) | ± 5.1% | 43% | 47% | - | - | 5%[bd] | 6% |
| GQR Research/Unite the Country PAC[I] | Jul 30 – Aug 4 | 1,245 (LV) | – | 43% | 52% | - | - | – | – |
| David Binder Research | Jul 30–31 | 200 (LV) | – | 41% | 51% | - | - | – | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Jul 1–31 | 3,083 (LV) | – | 48% | 49% | - | - | – | 2% |
| EPIC-MRA | Jul 25–30 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 51% | 3% | - | - | 6% |
| Public Policy Polling/Progress Michigan[B] | Jul 28–29 | 876 (V) | – | 43% | 49% | - | - | 6%[be] | 3% |
| Change Research/CNBC[2] | Jul 24–26 | 413 (LV) | – | 42% | 46% | - | - | – | – |
| Morning Consult | Jul 17–26 | 1,320 (LV) | ± 2.7% | 42% | 52% | - | - | – | – |
| YouGov/CBS | Jul 21–24 | 1,156 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 42% | 48% | - | - | 2%[bf] | 7% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | Jul 19–24 | 811 (LV) | – | 37% | 49% | 1% | 1% | 2%[bg] | 10% |
| CNN/SSRS | Jul 18–24 | 927 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 40% | 52% | - | - | 5%[bh] | 2% |
| Gravis Marketing[3] | Jul 22 | 754 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 42% | 51% | - | - | – | 7% |
| Fox News | Jul 18–20 | 756 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 40% | 49% | - | - | 4%[bi] | 7% |
| Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC[D] | Jul 13–16 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 53% | - | - | – | 7% |
| Spry Strategies/American Principles Project[J] | Jul 11–16 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 45% | - | - | – | 5% |
| Change Research/CNBC | Jul 10–12 | 824 (LV) | – | 42% | 48% | - | - | – | – |
| Public Policy Polling/Giffords (D)[K] | Jul 9–10 | 1,041 (V) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 51% | - | - | – | 5% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Jun 8–30 | 1,238 (LV) | – | 46% | 51% | - | - | – | 3% |
| Change Research/CNBC | Jun 26–28 | 699 (LV)[af] | – | 43% | 48% | - | - | – | – |
| Public Policy Polling/Progress Michigan (D)[B] | Jun 26–27 | 1,237 (V) | – | 44% | 50% | - | - | 5%[bj] | 1% |
| Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) | Jun 17–20 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 56% | - | - | 2%[bk] | 7% |
| Trafalgar Group | Jun 16–18 | 1,101 (LV) | ± 2.95% | 45% | 46% | - | - | 5%[ag] | 4% |
| NYT Upshot/Siena College | Jun 8–17 | 610 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 36% | 47% | - | - | 8%[bl] | 9% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | Jun 14–16 | 826 (LV) | ± 3.41% | 36% | 47% | 2% | 1% | 2%[bm] | 12% |
| TargetPoint | Jun 11–16 | 1,000 (A) | – | 33% | 49% | - | - | 4%[bn] | 14% |
| Change Research/CNBC | Jun 12–14 | 353 (LV)[af] | – | 45% | 47% | - | - | 3%[bo] | – |
| TIPP/American Greatness PAC Archived June 16, 2020, at the Wayback Machine[A] | Jun 9–12 | 859 (LV) | – | 38% | 51% | - | - | 4%[bp] | 7% |
| Kiaer Research | May 31 – Jun 7 | 543 (LV) | ± 6.4% | 35% | 50% | - | - | 6%[bq] | 8% |
| EPIC-MRA | May 31 – Jun 4 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 39% | 55% | - | - | – | – |
| EPIC-MRA | May 30 – Jun 3 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 41% | 53% | - | - | – | 6%[w] |
| Change Research/CNBC | May 29–31 | 620 (LV)[af] | – | 46% | 48% | - | - | 3% | 3% |
| Public Policy Polling/Progress Michigan[B] | May 29–30 | 1,582 (V) | ± 2.5% | 44% | 50% | - | - | 4%[br] | 2% |
| Morning Consult | May 17–26 | 1,325 (LV) | – | 42% | 50% | - | - | – | – |
| Public Policy Polling/Protect Our Care[L] | May 18–19 | 1,234 (V) | ± 2.8% | 45% | 51% | - | - | – | 5% |
| Change Research/Crooked Media | May 11–17 | 3,070 (LV) | – | 46% | 49% | - | - | – | – |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | May 10–14 | 970 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 39% | 47% | - | - | 3%[bs] | 11% |
| Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) | May 1–5 | 600 (LV) | ± 3% | 42% | 50% | - | - | – | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling[M] | Apr 28–29 | 1,270 (V) | – | 42% | 50% | - | - | – | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling[N] | Apr 20–21 | 1,277 (RV) | – | 44% | 51% | - | - | – | 5% |
| Fox News | Apr 18–21 | 801 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 41% | 49% | - | - | 3% | 6% |
| Ipsos/Reuters | Apr 15–20 | 612 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 38% | 46% | - | - | – | – |
| Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) | Apr 9–11 | 600 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 49% | - | - | – | – |
| Hart Research/CAP Action[O] | Apr 6–8 | 303 (RV) | – | 41% | 50% | - | - | 4% | 5% |
| Public Policy Polling | Mar 31 – Apr 1 | 1,019 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 48% | - | - | – | 7% |
| SPRY Strategies | Mar 30 – Apr 1 | 602 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 46% | - | - | – | 8% |
| Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes | Mar 17–25 | 997 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 42% | 47% | - | - | – | 11% |
| Change Research | Mar 21–23 | 510 (LV) | – | 47% | 48% | - | - | 5% | |
| Marketing Resource Group Archived March 25, 2020, at the Wayback Machine | Mar 16–20 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 44% | - | - | 9%[bt] | 6% |
| Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) | Mar 12–16 | 600 (RV) | – | 44% | 50% | - | - | – | – |
| AtlasIntel | Mar 7–9 | 1,100 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 44% | - | - | 10% | – |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | Mar 6–8 | 566 (RV) | – | 41% | 45% | - | - | 6%[bu] | 7% |
| Monmouth University | Mar 5–8 | 977 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 41% | 48% | - | - | 2% | 9% |
| Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Archived December 9, 2019, at the Wayback Machine | Mar 5–7 | 550 (RV) | ± 5.3% | 46% | 44% | - | - | – | – |
| YouGov | Feb 11–20 | 1,249 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 47% | - | - | – | – |
| Quinnipiac University Archived May 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine | Feb 12–18 | 845 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 43% | 47% | - | - | 6%[bv] | 3% |
| Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute | Feb 6–18 | 500 (RV) | – | 43% | 43% | - | - | – | 14% |
| EPIC-MRA/Detroit Free Press[4] | Jan 9–12 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 44% | 50% | - | - | – | 6% |
| Glengariff Group Inc. | Jan 3–7 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 43% | 50% | - | - | – | 5% |
2017–2019 polls
edit| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[f] | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Archived December 9, 2019, at the Wayback Machine | Dec 3–5, 2019 | 551 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 46% | 41% | 8% [bw] | 5% [w] |
| Emerson College | Oct 31 – Nov 3, 2019 | 1,051 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 56% | – | – |
| NYT Upshot/Siena College | Oct 13–25, 2019 | 501 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 44% | 45% | – | – |
| Target Insyght | Sep 24–26, 2019 | 800 (LV) | – | 35% | 54% | – | – |
| Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Archived September 12, 2019, at the Wayback Machine | Sep 7–9, 2019 | 529 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 42% | 17% | – |
| EPIC-MRA | Aug 17–21, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 51% | – | 8% |
| Climate Nexus | Jul 14–17, 2019 | 820 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 49% | 5%[bx] | 10% |
| Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus | Jun 11–13, 2019 | 587 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 43% | 46% | 11% | – |
| EPIC-MRA | Jun 8–12, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 52% | – | 7% |
| Glengariff Group | May 28–30, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 53% | – | 4% |
| WPA Intelligence | Apr 27–30, 2019 | 200 (LV) | ± 6.9% | 42% | 45% | – | 12% |
| Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Archived April 3, 2019, at the Wayback Machine | Mar 19–21, 2019 | 530 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 46% | 45% | 4% | – |
| Emerson College Archived March 10, 2019, at the Wayback Machine | Mar 7–10, 2019 | 743 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 54% | – | – |
| Glengariff Group Archived April 22, 2019, at the Wayback Machine | Jan 24–26, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 53% | – | 5% |
| EPIC-MRA | Apr 28–30, 2018 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 52% | – | 9% |
| Zogby Analytics | Sep 2017 | 800 (V) | – | 35% | 52% | – | 13% |
Former candidates | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg
Donald Trump vs. Cory Booker
Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar
Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke
Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders
Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren
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Hypothetical polling | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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with Donald Trump, Joe Biden, and Justin Amash
with Donald Trump, Joe Biden, and Howard Schultz
with Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, and Howard Schultz
with Donald Trump and Generic Democrat
with Donald Trump and Generic Opponent
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General election results
edit| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Joe Biden Kamala Harris | 2,804,040 | 50.62% | +3.35% | |
| Republican | Donald Trump Mike Pence | 2,649,852 | 47.84% | +0.34% | |
| Libertarian | Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen | 60,381 | 1.09% | −2.50% | |
| Green | Howie Hawkins Angela Walker | 13,718 | 0.25% | −0.82% | |
| Constitution | Don Blankenship William Mohr | 7,235 | 0.13% | N/A | |
| Natural Law | Rocky De La Fuente Darcy Richardson | 2,986 | 0.05% | N/A | |
| Write-in | Brian T. Carroll | 963 | 0.02% | +0.01% | |
| Write-in | Jade Simmons | 89 | <0.01% | N/A | |
| Write-in | Tom Hoefling | 32 | <0.01% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 6 | <0.01% | N/A | ||
| Total votes | 5,539,302 | 100.00% | |||
By county
edit| County | Joe Biden Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Various candidates Other parties | Margin | Total votes cast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Alcona | 2,142 | 30.32% | 4,848 | 68.63% | 74 | 1.05% | -2,706 | -38.31% | 7,064 |
| Alger | 2,053 | 39.98% | 3,014 | 58.70% | 68 | 1.32% | -961 | -18.72% | 5,135 |
| Allegan | 24,449 | 36.39% | 41,392 | 61.60% | 1,354 | 2.01% | -16,943 | -25.21% | 67,195 |
| Alpena | 6,000 | 35.32% | 10,686 | 62.91% | 301 | 1.77% | -4,686 | -27.59% | 16,987 |
| Antrim | 5,960 | 37.32% | 9,748 | 61.03% | 264 | 1.65% | -3,788 | -23.71% | 15,972 |
| Arenac | 2,774 | 31.38% | 5,928 | 67.07% | 137 | 1.55% | -3,154 | -35.69% | 8,839 |
| Baraga | 1,478 | 36.52% | 2,512 | 62.07% | 57 | 1.41% | -1,034 | -25.55% | 4,047 |
| Barry | 11,797 | 32.80% | 23,471 | 65.27% | 693 | 1.93% | -11,674 | -32.47% | 35,961 |
| Bay | 26,151 | 43.34% | 33,125 | 54.90% | 1,057 | 1.76% | -6,974 | -11.56% | 60,333 |
| Benzie | 5,480 | 44.69% | 6,601 | 53.83% | 181 | 1.48% | -1,121 | -9.14% | 12,262 |
| Berrien | 37,438 | 45.34% | 43,519 | 52.71% | 1,608 | 1.95% | -6,081 | -7.37% | 82,565 |
| Branch | 6,159 | 29.94% | 14,064 | 68.36% | 350 | 1.70% | -7,905 | -38.42% | 20,573 |
| Calhoun | 28,877 | 43.57% | 36,221 | 54.65% | 1,183 | 1.78% | -5,344 | -11.08% | 66,281 |
| Cass | 9,130 | 34.79% | 16,699 | 63.63% | 413 | 1.58% | -7,569 | -28.84% | 26,242 |
| Charlevoix | 6,939 | 40.75% | 9,841 | 57.79% | 250 | 1.46% | -2,902 | -17.04% | 17,030 |
| Cheboygan | 5,437 | 34.22% | 10,186 | 64.10% | 267 | 1.68% | -4,749 | -29.88% | 15,890 |
| Chippewa | 6,648 | 37.62% | 10,681 | 60.44% | 342 | 1.94% | -4,033 | -22.82% | 17,671 |
| Clare | 5,199 | 31.91% | 10,861 | 66.65% | 235 | 1.44% | -5,662 | -34.74% | 16,295 |
| Clinton | 21,968 | 45.84% | 25,098 | 52.37% | 861 | 1.79% | -3,130 | -6.53% | 47,927 |
| Crawford | 2,672 | 33.99% | 5,087 | 64.71% | 102 | 1.30% | -2,415 | -30.72% | 7,861 |
| Delta | 7,606 | 35.93% | 13,207 | 62.39% | 354 | 1.68% | -5,601 | -26.46% | 21,167 |
| Dickinson | 4,744 | 32.46% | 9,617 | 65.80% | 254 | 1.74% | -4,873 | -33.34% | 14,615 |
| Eaton | 31,299 | 48.66% | 31,798 | 49.43% | 1,230 | 1.91% | -499 | -0.77% | 64,327 |
| Emmet | 9,662 | 43.50% | 12,135 | 54.64% | 412 | 1.86% | -2,473 | -11.14% | 22,209 |
| Genesee | 119,390 | 53.84% | 98,714 | 44.51% | 3,660 | 1.65% | 20,676 | 9.33% | 221,764 |
| Gladwin | 4,524 | 30.95% | 9,893 | 67.69% | 198 | 1.36% | -5,369 | -36.74% | 14,615 |
| Gogebic | 3,570 | 43.14% | 4,600 | 55.58% | 106 | 1.28% | -1,030 | -12.44% | 8,276 |
| Grand Traverse | 28,683 | 47.53% | 30,502 | 50.54% | 1,168 | 1.93% | -1,819 | -3.01% | 60,353 |
| Gratiot | 6,693 | 34.95% | 12,102 | 63.20% | 353 | 1.85% | -5,409 | -28.25% | 19,148 |
| Hillsdale | 5,883 | 25.25% | 17,037 | 73.11% | 382 | 1.64% | -11,154 | -47.86% | 23,302 |
| Houghton | 7,750 | 41.82% | 10,378 | 56.00% | 405 | 2.18% | -2,628 | -14.18% | 18,533 |
| Huron | 5,490 | 29.77% | 12,731 | 69.03% | 221 | 1.20% | -7,241 | -39.26% | 18,442 |
| Ingham | 94,212 | 65.18% | 47,639 | 32.96% | 2,699 | 1.86% | 46,573 | 32.22% | 144,550 |
| Ionia | 10,901 | 33.84% | 20,657 | 64.13% | 651 | 2.03% | -9,756 | -30.29% | 32,209 |
| Iosco | 5,373 | 34.92% | 9,759 | 63.42% | 255 | 1.66% | -4,386 | -28.50% | 15,387 |
| Iron | 2,493 | 36.69% | 4,216 | 62.05% | 86 | 1.26% | -1,723 | -25.36% | 6,795 |
| Isabella | 14,072 | 47.74% | 14,815 | 50.26% | 589 | 2.00% | -743 | -2.52% | 29,476 |
| Jackson | 31,995 | 39.49% | 47,372 | 58.47% | 1,647 | 2.04% | -15,377 | -18.98% | 81,014 |
| Kalamazoo | 83,686 | 58.22% | 56,823 | 39.53% | 3,237 | 2.25% | 26,863 | 18.69% | 143,746 |
| Kalkaska | 3,002 | 28.24% | 7,436 | 69.95% | 193 | 1.81% | -4,434 | -41.71% | 10,631 |
| Kent | 187,915 | 51.91% | 165,741 | 45.78% | 8,375 | 2.31% | 22,174 | 6.13% | 362,031 |
| Keweenaw | 672 | 43.16% | 862 | 55.36% | 23 | 1.48% | -190 | -12.20% | 1,557 |
| Lake | 2,288 | 36.13% | 3,946 | 62.32% | 98 | 1.55% | -1,658 | -26.19% | 6,332 |
| Lapeer | 16,367 | 31.04% | 35,482 | 67.29% | 883 | 1.67% | -19,115 | -36.25% | 52,732 |
| Leelanau | 8,795 | 52.04% | 7,916 | 46.84% | 189 | 1.12% | 879 | 5.20% | 16,900 |
| Lenawee | 20,918 | 39.13% | 31,541 | 59.01% | 993 | 1.86% | -10,623 | -19.88% | 53,452 |
| Livingston | 48,220 | 37.91% | 76,982 | 60.52% | 1,995 | 1.57% | -28,762 | -22.61% | 127,197 |
| Luce | 842 | 28.00% | 2,109 | 70.14% | 56 | 1.86% | -1,277 | -42.14% | 3,007 |
| Mackinac | 2,632 | 37.47% | 4,304 | 61.27% | 89 | 1.26% | -1,772 | -23.80% | 7,025 |
| Macomb | 223,952 | 45.31% | 263,863 | 53.39% | 6,441 | 1.30% | -39,911 | -8.08% | 494,256 |
| Manistee | 6,107 | 41.60% | 8,321 | 56.69% | 251 | 1.71% | -2,214 | -15.09% | 14,679 |
| Marquette | 20,465 | 54.50% | 16,286 | 43.37% | 799 | 2.13% | 4,179 | 11.13% | 37,550 |
| Mason | 6,802 | 39.36% | 10,207 | 59.06% | 274 | 1.58% | -3,405 | -19.70% | 17,283 |
| Mecosta | 7,375 | 34.98% | 13,267 | 62.93% | 439 | 2.09% | -5,892 | -27.95% | 21,081 |
| Menominee | 4,316 | 34.20% | 8,117 | 64.31% | 188 | 1.49% | -3,801 | -30.11% | 12,621 |
| Midland | 20,493 | 41.67% | 27,675 | 56.28% | 1,007 | 2.05% | -7,182 | -14.61% | 49,175 |
| Missaukee | 1,967 | 22.47% | 6,648 | 75.93% | 140 | 1.60% | -4,681 | -53.46% | 8,755 |
| Monroe | 32,980 | 37.78% | 52,722 | 60.39% | 1,597 | 1.83% | -19,742 | -22.61% | 87,299 |
| Montcalm | 9,703 | 30.19% | 21,815 | 67.88% | 620 | 1.93% | -12,112 | -37.69% | 32,138 |
| Montmorency | 1,628 | 27.77% | 4,171 | 71.14% | 64 | 1.09% | -2,543 | -43.37% | 5,863 |
| Muskegon | 45,643 | 49.37% | 45,133 | 48.82% | 1,668 | 1.81% | 510 | 0.55% | 92,444 |
| Newaygo | 7,873 | 28.95% | 18,857 | 69.33% | 467 | 1.72% | -10,984 | -40.38% | 27,197 |
| Oakland | 434,148 | 56.24% | 325,971 | 42.22% | 11,872 | 1.54% | 108,177 | 14.02% | 771,991 |
| Oceana | 4,944 | 35.11% | 8,892 | 63.15% | 244 | 1.74% | -3,948 | -28.04% | 14,080 |
| Ogemaw | 3,475 | 29.15% | 8,253 | 69.23% | 193 | 1.62% | -4,778 | -40.08% | 11,921 |
| Ontonagon | 1,391 | 36.51% | 2,358 | 61.89% | 61 | 1.60% | -967 | -25.38% | 3,810 |
| Osceola | 3,214 | 26.05% | 8,928 | 72.35% | 198 | 1.60% | -5,714 | -46.30% | 12,340 |
| Oscoda | 1,342 | 27.50% | 3,466 | 71.02% | 72 | 1.48% | -2,124 | -43.52% | 4,880 |
| Otsego | 4,743 | 32.10% | 9,779 | 66.19% | 253 | 1.71% | -5,036 | -34.09% | 14,775 |
| Ottawa | 64,705 | 38.35% | 100,913 | 59.81% | 3,095 | 1.84% | -36,208 | -21.46% | 168,713 |
| Presque Isle | 2,911 | 34.84% | 5,342 | 63.94% | 102 | 1.22% | -2,431 | -29.10% | 8,355 |
| Roscommon | 5,166 | 34.36% | 9,670 | 64.32% | 198 | 1.32% | -4,504 | -29.96% | 15,034 |
| Saginaw | 51,088 | 49.37% | 50,785 | 49.08% | 1,610 | 1.55% | 303 | 0.29% | 103,483 |
| St. Clair | 31,363 | 34.02% | 59,185 | 64.19% | 1,654 | 1.79% | -27,822 | -30.17% | 92,202 |
| St. Joseph | 9,262 | 33.10% | 18,127 | 64.78% | 592 | 2.12% | -8,865 | -31.68% | 27,981 |
| Sanilac | 5,966 | 26.58% | 16,194 | 72.15% | 286 | 1.27% | -10,228 | -45.57% | 22,446 |
| Schoolcraft | 1,589 | 33.49% | 3,090 | 65.12% | 66 | 1.39% | -1,501 | -31.63% | 4,745 |
| Shiawassee | 15,347 | 39.05% | 23,149 | 58.90% | 805 | 2.05% | -7,802 | -19.85% | 39,301 |
| Tuscola | 8,712 | 29.55% | 20,297 | 68.85% | 470 | 1.60% | -11,585 | -39.30% | 29,479 |
| Van Buren | 16,803 | 42.92% | 21,591 | 55.16% | 752 | 1.92% | -4,788 | -12.24% | 39,146 |
| Washtenaw | 157,136 | 72.44% | 56,241 | 25.93% | 3,554 | 1.63% | 100,895 | 46.51% | 216,931 |
| Wayne | 597,170 | 68.32% | 264,553 | 30.27% | 12,295 | 1.41% | 332,617 | 38.05% | 874,018 |
| Wexford | 5,838 | 31.92% | 12,102 | 66.16% | 352 | 1.92% | -6,264 | -34.24% | 18,292 |
| Totals | 2,804,045 | 50.55% | 2,649,864 | 47.77% | 93,277 | 1.68% | 154,181 | 2.78% | 5,547,186 |
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
edit- Leelanau (largest municipality: Greilickville)
- Kent (largest municipality: Grand Rapids)
- Saginaw (largest municipality: Saginaw)
By congressional district
editDespite losing the state, Trump won 8 out of the 14 congressional districts in Michigan, including one that elected a Democrat.
| District | Trump | Biden | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 57.9% | 40.6% | Jack Bergman |
| 2nd | 55% | 43.2% | Bill Huizenga |
| 3rd | 50.7% | 47.4% | Justin Amash |
| Peter Meijer | |||
| 4th | 61.1% | 37.2% | John Moolenaar |
| 5th | 47.1% | 51.4% | Dan Kildee |
| 6th | 51.3% | 46.8% | Fred Upton |
| 7th | 56.7% | 41.6% | Tim Walberg |
| 8th | 49.6% | 48.8% | Elissa Slotkin |
| 9th | 42.7% | 55.9% | Andy Levin |
| 10th | 64.2% | 34.4% | Paul Mitchell |
| Lisa McClain | |||
| 11th | 47.1% | 51.6% | Haley Stevens |
| 12th | 34.4% | 64.2% | Debbie Dingell |
| 13th | 20% | 78.8% | Rashida Tlaib |
| 14th | 19.6% | 79.5% | Brenda Lawrence |
Analysis
editMichigan was generally seen as one of the most critical states of the 2020 election; the state boasts a highly prized 16 electoral votes, and had been part of the blue wall since Bill Clinton won the state in 1992. It was key to Trump's surprise victory in 2016, and the Biden campaign paid heavy attention to the state throughout the campaign, looking to avoid a repeat of Hillary Clinton's unexpected collapse in the northern industrial states.[29][30]
Biden would carry the state by about 2.8%; while Biden ran well behind Barack Obama in his two campaigns, his margin of victory was in-line for a Democratic candidate, only performing slightly worse than John Kerry's 3.4% margin in 2004, and Al Gore's 5.2% margin in 2000, reflecting some of the steady demographic shifts in the state. Many undecided/third-party voters that had been lost by Clinton appeared to return to the Democratic column, giving Biden enough votes to carry the state.[31]
While Michigan returned to the Democratic column with a fairly sizable margin, the state's internal politics shifted rather dramatically. Trump performed strongly with white voters without a college degree, winning this group by 17 points, and this group made up about 51% of Michigan's electorate, cementing the white-working-class shift to the GOP; with men, this was even more convincing, as Trump carried white men without a college degree by 30 points. On the other hand, there was a significant suburban shift towards the Democrats; for example, Ottawa County, a suburban county outside of Grand Rapids, has traditionally been a GOP-stronghold in the state; Biden cut into Trump's margins here, and Trump carried this county with less than 60%.[31] Trump held Macomb County, which famously helped him clinch Michigan in 2016, but carried it by only 8 points, 3 points fewer than in 2016.[32]
Other demographic patterns remained the same. Biden won 93% of African-American voters in the state; consequently, Biden improved from Clinton's performance in Wayne County, home of Detroit.[32] Biden's performance among black voters would carry on in other parts of the state; Biden was able to match Clinton's performance in Genesee County,[33] and flipped back Saginaw County.[34]
Biden performed strongly with Michigan's different religious groups; Biden was able to improve from Clinton in the vote share with Evangelical Michiganders. More importantly, Biden performed strongly with white Catholics, who make up a large portion of Michigan's electorate.[35] Much of the state's sizable Muslim and Arab American voters backed Biden in the election, in which their support was seen as being important for helping Biden secure victory in Michigan.[36][37]
Jeremy W. Peters of The New York Times wrote that "high Detroit turnout" was a crucial factor aiding Biden.[38] African Americans in Detroit were a major demographic contributing to Joe Biden winning that state.[39] Trump received 12,600 votes in Detroit proper, an increase from the previous election's 7,700. In percentage terms, the shift in Detroit was from Clinton 95–3 to Biden 94–5, a decreased margin from 92 points in 2016 to 89 in 2020. Biden saw increases from 2016 in Oakland and Washtenaw counties.[40]
In Oakland County, Biden won 433,982 votes, making up 56.36% of the votes. The municipalities in Oakland County that majority-voted for Biden versus Trump included Bloomfield Township, Farmington Hills, Madison Heights, Novi, Rochester Hills, Southfield and Troy.[41]
The number of unbalanced votes in Wayne County for 2020 was below the same number for 2016.[42] On November 23, 2020, Michigan certified the results 3–0, with Norm Shinkle abstaining.[43]
Edison exit polls
edit| 2020 presidential election in Michigan by demographic subgroup (Edison exit polling)[44][45] | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Demographic subgroup | Biden | Trump | % of total vote |
| Total vote | 50.62 | 47.84 | 100 |
| Ideology | |||
| Liberals | 89 | 10 | 25 |
| Moderates | 62 | 36 | 38 |
| Conservatives | 12 | 88 | 37 |
| Party | |||
| Democrats | 97 | 3 | 38 |
| Republicans | 6 | 94 | 38 |
| Independents | 51 | 45 | 23 |
| Gender | |||
| Men | 44 | 54 | 46 |
| Women | 57 | 43 | 54 |
| Race/ethnicity | |||
| White | 44 | 55 | 81 |
| Black | 92 | 7 | 12 |
| Latino | 55 | 44 | 3 |
| Asian | – | – | 1 |
| Other | – | – | 4 |
| Age | |||
| 18–24 years old | 62 | 36 | 7 |
| 25–29 years old | 59 | 37 | 4 |
| 30–39 years old | 48 | 50 | 14 |
| 40–49 years old | 49 | 49 | 15 |
| 50–64 years old | 51 | 49 | 29 |
| 65 and older | 51 | 49 | 30 |
| Sexual orientation | |||
| LGBT | – | – | 6 |
| Not LGBT | 53 | 47 | 94 |
| Education | |||
| High school or less | 49 | 50 | 20 |
| Some college education | 49 | 50 | 27 |
| Associate's degree | 42 | 57 | 18 |
| Bachelor's degree | 55 | 44 | 20 |
| Postgraduate degree | 63 | 37 | 16 |
| Income | |||
| Under $30,000 | 61 | 39 | 16 |
| $30,000–49,999 | 60 | 39 | 20 |
| $50,000–99,999 | 55 | 44 | 34 |
| Over $100,000 | 47 | 51 | 30 |
| Union households | |||
| Yes | 62 | 37 | 21 |
| No | 48 | 51 | 79 |
| Issue regarded as most important | |||
| Racial inequality | 93 | 5 | 16 |
| Coronavirus | 94 | 5 | 18 |
| Economy | 14 | 86 | 39 |
| Crime and safety | 22 | 77 | 9 |
| Health care | 85 | 12 | 10 |
| Region | |||
| Wayne County | 69 | 30 | 16 |
| Southeast | 58 | 41 | 27 |
| East central | 42 | 57 | 24 |
| Southwest | 46 | 53 | 19 |
| North central/Upper Peninsula | 40 | 59 | 14 |
| Area type | |||
| Urban | 65 | 35 | 21 |
| Suburban | 48 | 51 | 58 |
| Rural | 45 | 54 | 21 |
| Family's financial situation today | |||
| Better than four years ago | 18 | 81 | 41 |
| Worse than four years ago | 90 | 9 | 15 |
| About the same | 72 | 27 | 43 |
Aftermath
editOn November 5, a state judge in Michigan dismissed the Trump campaign's lawsuit requesting a pause in vote-counting to allow access to observers, as the judge noted that vote-counting had already finished in Michigan.[46] That judge also noted the official complaint did not state "why, when, where, or by whom" an election observer was allegedly blocked from observing ballot-counting in Michigan.[47]
On election night in Antrim County, human error miscounted an unofficial tally of Presidential votes. Next day, the County Clerk pulled the unofficial tally offline. The error was caused by using different kinds of ballots when setting up ballot scanners and result-reporting systems, which mismatched results.[48] The Republican Clerk admitted that she made a mistake in some precincts, which mismatched precinct results.[49] The very next day, she corrected her mistake, tabulated all ballots again and ran a final report to certify Trump's overwhelming win.[48] Nonetheless, this error and a related lawsuit fueled multiple election conspiracies.[50]
Despite pressure from the Trump campaign to hand the decision over the state's presidential electors to the Michigan State Legislature, which would have been an unprecedented maneuver in state history and was not authorized under Michigan law, the statewide results were certified in favor of the Biden/Harris ticket on November 23, with one Republican member of the Michigan Board of State Canvassers abstaining.[51]
Official audits
editIn October 2020, the Michigan Election Security Advisory Commission published recommendations for two types of postelection audits: procedural and tabulation audits.[52] The first statewide risk-limiting audit included a hand tally of the sampled ballots, which confirmed that Biden received more votes than Trump and the share of votes each candidate received was within a fraction of a percentage point of the certified results.[53] Another tabulation audit confirmed the election results by examining ballots cast, voting machines and the election procedures. The series of post-election audits was the most comprehensive in the state's history.[54]
In Antrim County, the Clerk's Office was joined by a bipartisan team of clerks to perform a hand recount of every single ballot. Their recount proved that the county's election results had been accurately certified.[49] The Republican Chairman concluded in a letter prefacing his state Senate Oversight Committee's election report: "all compelling theories that sprang forth from the rumors surrounding Antrim County are diminished so significantly as for it to be a complete waste of time to consider them further."[55]
After eight months investigating the state's 2020 general election process, he and his Republican Committee members all voted for the Senate to adopt their report. Their report concluded, "The Committee found no evidence of widespread or systemic fraud in Michigan's prosecution of the 2020 election."[55]
See also
editNotes
edit- Partisan clients
- ^ a b The Center for American Greatness is a pro-Trump organization
- ^ a b c d e f Progress Michigan is a non-profit that primarily supports Democratic candidates
- ^ The American Bridge PAC exclusively supports Democratic candidates
- ^ a b c d The Restoration PAC is a 501 non-profit which supports Donald Trump's 2020 presidential campaign
- ^ a b c Rust Belt Rising is affiliated with the Democratic Party
- ^ a b The American Action Forum is a 501 organisation which usually supports Republican candidates
- ^ The Committee to Protect Medicare is a PAC with a history of buying ads arguing against the reelection of Trump
- ^ The Human Rights Campaign endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
- ^ Unite the Country PAC has endorsed Biden's presidential campaign
- ^ This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501(c)(4) organization that supports the Republican Party.
- ^ Poll sponsored by Giffords, whose head - Gabby Giffords - had endorsed Biden prior to the sampling period
- ^ Protect Our Care is a pro-Affordable Care Act organisation
- ^ Poll sponsored by Progress Michigan, the Michigan branch of Progress Now, a progressive advocacy organisation
- ^ Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organisation
- ^ CAP Action is a political advocacy group that exclusively supports Democratic candidates
- ^ Poll sponsored by the Sanders campaign
- Voter samples and additional candidates
- ^ a b Candidate withdrew during absentee voting, following Super Tuesday.
- ^ a b c Candidate withdrew during absentee voting, before Super Tuesday.
- ^ a b Candidate withdrew during absentee voting, following the New Hampshire primary.
- ^ Candidate withdrew in January, shortly after absentee voting had begun.
- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
- ^ a b c d "Someone else" with 2%
- ^ a b c d e f g Standard VI response
- ^ a b c "Some other candidate" with 2%; West (B) and would not vote with 0%
- ^ a b c d If only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
- ^ a b c d "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
- ^ Results considering those who lean towards a given candidate among those initially predisposed towards abstention, indecision or a candidate besides Biden or Trump in the response section immediately above
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
- ^ a b c d e With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- ^ a b c "Someone else" with 3%
- ^ "Not sure/Someone else/Undecided" with 8%
- ^ "None of these" with 1%; "Other" with 0%
- ^ "Someone else" with no voters
- ^ a b Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
- ^ a b Results generated with high Republican turnout model
- ^ "Third party" with 5%
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l Includes "Refused"
- ^ a b c "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ "Other/third party" with 2%
- ^ "Someone else" with 0%
- ^ "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%
- ^ "Third party" with 2%
- ^ "Other" and "None of these" with 0%; would not vote with no voters
- ^ Includes Undecided
- ^ "Other" with 2%; would not vote with no voters
- ^ a b c d e f Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
- ^ a b c "Third party candidate" with 5%
- ^ "Some other candidate" and West (B) with 1%; would not vote with 0%
- ^ "Third party candidate" with 4%
- ^ "Someone else" with 4%
- ^ "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
- ^ "Other third party" with 2%
- ^ "Another candidate" with 0%
- ^ a b "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
- ^ a b "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
- ^ "Refused" with 3%; "Third Party" with 2%
- ^ a b "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 0%
- ^ "Someone else" with 1.2%
- ^ "Another candidate" with 1%
- ^ If only Trump and Biden were candidates
- ^ "Someone else" with 7%; "Refused" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
- ^ Would not vote with 1%
- ^ Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
- ^ "Other/not sure" with 7%
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%
- ^ "Refused" with 3%; "Third party" with 1%
- ^ Would not vote with 0%
- ^ "Another party candidate" with 1%
- ^ "Another third party/write-in" 1%
- ^ "Other" with 3%; would not vote with 2%
- ^ "Third party" with 6%
- ^ "Someone else/third party" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
- ^ "Another Third Party/Write-In" with 2%
- ^ "Other" with 1%; "Neither" with 4%
- ^ "Other" with 3%; would not vote with 1%
- ^ "Would vote third party" with 5%
- ^ "Refused" with 2%
- ^ "Another candidate" with 3%; Would not vote with 5%
- ^ "other" with 2%
- ^ "Refused/no answer" with 4%
- ^ "Libertarian Party candidate/Green Party candidate" with 3%
- ^ "Other" with 4%; "prefer not to answer" with 0%
- ^ "A different candidate" with 6%
- ^ "Third party" with 4%
- ^ "Third party/write-in" with 3%
- ^ "Someone else" with 6%; "Refused" and would not vote with 1%
- ^ "Other" with 4%; would not vote with 2%
- ^ a b "Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 4%
- ^ a b A third party candidate with 5%; would not vote with 3%
- ^ Would not vote with 5%
- ^ a b "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 4%
- ^ a b Would not vote with 7%
- ^ "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 5%
- ^ A third party candidate with 4%; would not vote with 4%
- ^ a b Would not vote with 6%
- ^ "Other" with 5%; would not vote with 2%
- ^ A third party candidate with 4%; would not vote with 2%
- ^ Would not vote with 4%
- ^ "Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 5%
- ^ A third party candidate with 3%; would not vote with 5%
- ^ a b Figures for each candidate in this poll include undecided voters who were reported to lean towards that candidate at the time of polling.
- ^ "It depends on who the Democrats nominate" with 1.9%; "unsure" with 1%
- ^ a b c d Listed as "Would vote to replace Trump"
- ^ a b Listed as "would consider voting for someone other than Trump"
- ^ 19% listed as "would consider voting for someone other than Trump"; 3% as "undecided/refused"
- ^ "Vote to replace Trump" with 45%
- ^ "Consider voting for someone else" with 19%; "Undecided/refused" with 4%
- ^ "Vote to replace Trump" with 49%
- ^ "Consider voting for someone else" with 16%; "Don't know/refused" with 4%
- ^ "Depends on who the Democratic nominee is" with 15%
References
editFurther reading
edit- David Weigel; Lauren Tierney (August 9, 2020), "The six political states of Michigan", Washingtonpost.com, archived from the original on September 9, 2020, retrieved September 7, 2020. (describes 2016 political geography of Detroit; Detroit suburbs; the Middle; the Thumb; the West; Upper Peninsula and North)
- Summary: State Laws on Presidential Electors (PDF), Washington DC: National Association of Secretaries of State, August 2020,
Michigan
- David Wasserman (October 6, 2020), "The 10 Bellwether Counties That Show How Trump Is in Serious Trouble", The New York Times. (describes bellwether Kent County, Michigan)
- Jennifer Steinhauer (October 17, 2020), "In Kalamazoo, Old High School Classmates Reckon With a Divided Country", The New York Times
External links
edit- "League of Women Voters of Michigan". (state affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
- Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Michigan", Voting & Elections Toolkits
- "Michigan: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
- Michigan at Ballotpedia