2016 Northern Ireland Assembly election

The 2016 Northern Ireland Assembly election was held on Thursday, 5 May 2016. It was the fifth election to take place since the devolved assembly was established in 1998. 1,281,595 individuals were registered to vote in the election (representing an increase of 5.9% compared to the previous Assembly election).[3] Turnout in the 2016 Assembly election was 703,744 (54.9%), a decline of less than one percentage point from the previous Assembly Election in 2011, but down 15 percentage points from the first election to the Assembly held in 1998.[4]

2016 Northern Ireland Assembly election
← 20115 May 20162017 →

All 108 seats to the Northern Ireland Assembly
Turnout54.9%[1] (Decrease0.8%)
 First partySecond partyThird party
 
MLA Arlene Foster.jpg
Martin McGuinness in Jan 2017 (headshot).jpg
Mike Nesbitt.png
LeaderArlene FosterMartin McGuinness [a]Mike Nesbitt
PartyDUPSinn FéinUUP
Leader since17 December 20158 May 200731 March 2012
Leader's seatFermanagh and South TyroneFoyleStrangford
Last election38 seats, 30.0%29 seats, 26.9%16 seats, 13.2%
Seats won382816
Seat changeSteadyDecrease1Steady
Popular vote202,567166,78587,302
Percentage29.2%24.0%12.6%
SwingDecrease0.8%Decrease2.9%Decrease0.6%

 Fourth partyFifth partySixth party
 
Colum Eastwood MLA.JPG
DavidFordAlliance.jpg
Steven Agnew MLA 2016.png
LeaderColum EastwoodDavid FordSteven Agnew
PartySDLPAllianceGreen (NI)
Leader since14 November 20156 October 200110 January 2011
Leader's seatFoyleSouth AntrimNorth Down
Last election14 seats, 14.2%8 seats, 7.7%1 seat, 0.9%
Seats won1282
Seat changeDecrease2SteadyIncrease1
Popular vote83,36448,44718,718
Percentage12.0%7.0%2.7%
SwingDecrease2.2%Decrease0.7%Increase1.8%

 Seventh partyEighth party
 
Eamonn_McCann.jpg
JimAllister (cropped).jpg
LeaderEamonn McCann[2]Jim Allister
PartyPeople Before ProfitTUV
Leader sinceN/A7 December 2007
Leader's seatFoyleNorth Antrim
Last election0 seats, 0.8%1 seat, 2.4%
Seats won21
Seat changeIncrease2Steady
Popular vote13,76123,776
Percentage2.0%3.4%
SwingIncrease1.2%Increase1.0%

Election results. Voters elect 6 assembly members from the 18 constituencies.

First Minister and
deputy First Minister
before election

Arlene Foster (DUP) &
Martin McGuinness (SF)

First Minister and
deputy First Minister
after election

Arlene Foster (DUP) &
Martin McGuinness (SF)

As in the 2007 and 2011 elections, the Democratic Unionist Party and Sinn Féin won the most seats, with the DUP winning 38 and Sinn Féin winning 28 of the available 108 seats. The Ulster Unionist Party won 16 seats, the Social Democratic and Labour Party 12 and the Alliance 8, while two seats were won by the Green Party and People Before Profit. The Traditional Unionist Voice and an independent candidate each won one seat.

Change of date

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Under the Northern Ireland Act 1998, elections to the Assembly were originally for a four-year term; thus there would have been an election due in May 2015, four years after the 2011 election. Following the introduction of the UK Fixed Term Parliaments Act, this date would have clashed with the 2015 UK general election.[5] The Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly elections were postponed for a year to 2016 to avoid this clash.[6]

In May 2013, Theresa Villiers, Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, announced the next Assembly election would be postponed to May 2016, and would be held at fixed intervals of five years thereafter.[7] Section 7 of the Northern Ireland (Miscellaneous Provisions) Act 2014 specifies that elections will be held on the first Thursday in May on the fifth (rather than fourth, as previously) calendar year following that in which its predecessor was elected.[8]

End of dual mandate

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The Northern Ireland (Miscellaneous Provisions) Act 2014 also ends the practice of dual mandate, prohibiting someone being elected to the assembly who is also a member of the House of Commons or Dáil Éireann.[8] At the time the Act was passed, there were three such dual-members: the DUP's Sammy Wilson (MP for East Antrim and MLA for East Antrim) and Gregory Campbell (MP for East Londonderry and MLA for East Londonderry) and the SDLP's Alasdair McDonnell (MP for Belfast South and MLA for Belfast South).[9] Wilson and McDonnell resigned from the Assembly after being re-elected to the House of Commons in the 2015 election. Campbell, who was also re-elected as an MP, is retiring from the Assembly at this election.[10]

Earlier dissolution

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There are several circumstances in which the Assembly could be dissolved before the date scheduled by virtue of section 31(1) of the Northern Ireland Act 1998.

Dissolution motion

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Under section 32 of the 1998 Act, the Assembly can be dissolved if a resolution to such an effect is passed by the Assembly, with support of a two-thirds majority or more members.[11]

Failure to elect the First or deputy First Ministers

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The Act provides that if the Assembly fails to elect either the First Minister or deputy First Minister within six weeks, an election is called. Since the enactment of the Northern Ireland (St Andrews Agreement) Act 2006, the First Minister has been nominated by the largest party of the largest community designation, and the deputy First Minister has been nominated by the largest party in the second largest community designation ("Nationalist", "Unionist" or "Other").[12]

New Executive Departments

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It was proposed[13] that after the May 2016 Election there be a reduction in the number of ministries and departments. The amendments were:

° The Department of Education remains the same.

Candidates

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Nominations opened on 30 March 2016 for the assembly election.[14] A full list of candidates is available.[15][16]The table below lists all of the nominated candidates.

  • * indicates an incumbent MLA
  • ** indicates the candidate was the incumbent MLA for a different constituency
  • Leaders of parties represented in the assembly at dissolution are shown in bold text
  • Elected candidates are marked with an (E)
ConstituencyDUPSFSDLPUUPAllianceTUVGreenPBPUKIPNI ConsIndependentOthers
Belfast EastJoanne Bunting (E)
Sammy Douglas* (E)
Robin Newton* (E)
Niall Ó DonnghaileAmy Doherty
Andy Allen* (E)
Chris McGimpsey

Naomi Long (E)
Chris Lyttle* (E)
Tim Morrow
Andrew GirvinRoss BrownJonny LaveryNeil WilsonMaggie HuttonCourtney Robinson (Lab Alt)
Erskine Holmes (NI Lab)
John Kyle (PUP)
Belfast NorthPaula Bradley* (E)
William Humphrey* (E)
Nelson McCausland* (E)
Gerry Kelly* (E)
Carál Ní Chuilín* (E)
Nichola Mallon (E)Lesley CarrollNuala McAllisterJohn MillerMalachai O'HaraFiona FergusonKen BoyleFra Hughes
Tom Burns
Abdo Thabeth (NI Lab)
Geoff Dowey
Billy Hutchinson (PUP)
Gemma Weir (WP)
Belfast SouthEmma Little-Pengelly* (E)
Christopher Stalford (E)
Máirtín Ó Muilleoir* (E)Claire Hanna* (E)
Fearghal McKinney
Rodney McCunePaula Bradshaw (E)
Duncan Morrow
John HiddlestonClare Bailey (E)Bob StokerBen MantonRuth PattersonSeán Burns (Lab Alt)
Brigitte Anton (NI Lab)
Ian Shanks (PUP)
William Dickson
Lily Kerr (WP)
Belfast WestFrank McCoubrey Alex Maskey* (E)
Pat Sheehan* (E)
Fra McCann* (E)
Jennifer McCann* (E)
Rosie McCorley
Alex Attwood* (E)Gareth MartinJemima HigginsEllen MurrayGerry Carroll (E)Conor Campbell (WP)
East AntrimDavid Hilditch* (E)
Gordon Lyons* (E)
Alastair Ross* (E)
Oliver McMullan* (E)Margaret Anne McKillop
Roy Beggs Jr* (E)
John Stewart
Maureen Morrow
Stewart Dickson* (E)
Danny Donnelly
Ruth WilsonDawn PattersonNoel JordanConor Sheridan (Lab Alt)
Jim McCaw (PUP)
East LondonderryMaurice Bradley (E)
George Robinson* (E)
Adrian McQuillan* (E)
Caoimhe Archibald (E)
Cathal Ó hOisín
Gerry Mullan (E)William McCandless
Aaron Callan
Yvonne BoyleJordan ArmstrongAmber HamillSteven ParkhillDavid Harding
Stuart Canning
Claire Sugden* (E)
Victor Christie
Russell Watton (PUP)
Fermanagh and
South Tyrone

Arlene Foster* (E)
Maurice Morrow* (E)
Michelle Gildernew (E)
Seán Lynch* (E)
John Feely
Phil Flanagan
Richie McPhillips (E)Rosemary Barton (E)
Alastair Patterson
Kerri BlybergDonald CrawfordTanya JonesDamien Harris (NI Lab)
FoyleGary Middleton* (E)Raymond McCartney* (E)
Martin McGuinness** (E)
Maeve McLaughlin
Mark H. Durkan* (E)
Colum Eastwood* (E)
Gerard Diver
Julia KeeChris McCawMary HassanEamonn McCann (E)Alan DunlopAnne McCloskey
Maurice Devenney
Kathleen Bradley
John Lindsay (CISTA)
Lagan ValleyPaul Givan* (E)
Edwin Poots* (E)
Brenda Hale* (E)
Jonathan Craig
Jacqui McGeoughPat CatneyRobbie Butler (E)
Jenny Palmer (E)
Trevor Lunn* (E)Lyle ReaDan Barrios-O'NeillBrian HigginsonJack IrwinJonny OrrFrazer McCammond
Peter Dynes (NI Lab)
Mid UlsterKeith Buchanan (E)
Ian McCrea
Ian Milne* (E)
Michelle O'Neill* (E)
Linda Dillon (E)
Patsy McGlone* (E)Sandra Overend* (E)Néidín HendronHannah LoughrinStefan TaylorAlan DayHugh Scullion (WP)
Newry and ArmaghWilliam Irwin* (E)Megan Fearon* (E)
Cathal Boylan* (E)
Conor Murphy* (E)
Justin McNulty (E)
Karen McKevitt
Danny Kennedy* (E)
Sam Nicholson
Craig WeirMichael WattersAlan LovePaul Berry
Martin McAllister
Emmet Crossan (CISTA)
North AntrimPaul Frew* (E)
Mervyn Storey* (E)
Phillip Logan (E)
David McIlveen
Daithí McKay* (E)Connor DuncanRobin Swann* (E)
Andrew Wright
Stephen McFarlandJim Allister* (E)
Timothy Gaston
Jennifer BreslinDonna AndersonJames SimpsonKathryn Johnston (NI Lab)
North DownAlex Easton* (E)
Gordon Dunne* (E)
Peter Weir* (E)
Therese McCartneyConal BrowneAlan Chambers (E)
Carl McClean
Chris Eisenstadt
Stephen Farry* (E)
Andrew Muir
John BrennanSteven Agnew* (E)Bill PiperFrank ShiversBrian WilsonMaria Lourenco (NI Lab)
South AntrimPaul Girvan* (E)
Pam Cameron* (E)
Trevor Clarke* (E)
Declan Kearney (E)Roisin LynchSteve Aiken (E)
Paul Michael
Adrian Cochrane-Watson
David Ford* (E)Richard CairnsHelen FarleyRobert HillMark YoungDavid McMaster
South DownJim Wells* (E)Chris Hazzard* (E)
Caitríona Ruane* (E)
Michael Gray-Sloan
Sinéad Bradley (E)
Colin McGrath (E)
Seán Rogers
Harold McKee (E)Patrick BrownHenry ReillyJohn HardyJohn McCallister
StrangfordMichelle McIlveen* (E)
Jonathan Bell* (E)
Simon Hamilton* (E)
Harry Harvey
Dermot KennedyJoe BoyleMike Nesbitt* (E)
Philip Smith (E)
Kellie Armstrong (E)Stephen CooperGeorgia GraingerStephen CrosbyBill McKendryJimmy Menagh
Rab McCartney
Upper BannCarla Lockhart (E)
Sydney Anderson* (E)
Catherine Seeley (E)
John O'Dowd* (E)
Dolores KellyJo-Anne Dobson* (E)
Doug Beattie (E)
Kyle Savage
Harry HamiltonRoy FergusonSimon LeeDavid JonesIan NickelsSteven McCarrollMartin Kelly (CISTA)
Emma Hutchinson (NI Lab)
Sophie Long (PUP)
West TyroneThomas Buchanan* (E)
Allan Bresland
Barry McElduff* (E)
Michaela Boyle* (E)
Declan McAleer* (E)
Grace McDermott
Daniel McCrossan* (E)Ross Hussey* (E)Stephen DonnellyCiaran McCleanRoger LomasJosephine Deehan
Sorcha McAnespy
Patsy Kelly
Corey French
Susan-Anne White
Laura McAnea (AWP)
Barry Brown (CISTA)

Members not seeking re-election

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Alliance

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SDLP

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Sinn Féin

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UKIP

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Results

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Result by constituencies

The 2016 election was held using STV and 18 multi-seat districts, each electing 6 members.

PartyVotes%+/–Seats
Assembly+/–Executive+/–
Democratic Unionist Party202,56729.18-0.8385+1
Sinn Féin166,78524.02-2.928-14+1
Ulster Unionist Party87,30212.57-0.616-1
Social Democratic and Labour Party83,36812.01-2.212-2-1
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland48,4476.98-0.78-1
Traditional Unionist Voice23,7763.42+1.01
Green Party in Northern Ireland18,7182.70+1.82+1
People Before Profit Alliance13,7611.98+1.22+2
United Kingdom Independence Party10,1091.46+0.8
Progressive Unionist Party5,9550.86+0.3
Northern Ireland Conservatives2,5540.37New
Cannabis Is Safer Than Alcohol2,5100.36New
Cross-Community Labour Alternative1,9390.28New
Northern Ireland Labour Representation Committee1,5770.23New
Workers' Party (Ireland)1,5650.23New
South Belfast Unionists3510.05New
Animal Welfare Party2240.03New
Democracy First1240.02New
Northern Ireland First320.00New
Independent22,6503.26+0.911+1
Total694,314100.001080100
Valid votes694,31498.66
Invalid/blank votes9,4301.34
Total votes703,744100.00
Registered voters/turnout1,281,59554.91
Source: Election Report: Northern Ireland Assembly Election 5 May 2016

Distribution of seats by constituency

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Party affiliation of the six Assembly members returned by each constituency. The first column indicates the party of the Member of the House of Commons (MP) returned by the corresponding parliamentary constituency in the general election of 7 May 2015 (under the "first past the post" method).

(The constituencies are arranged here in rough geographical order around Lough Neagh from Antrim to Londonderry. To see them in alphabetical order, click the small square icon after "Constituency"; to restore this geographical order, click the icon after "No." at the left.)

No.2015 MPConstituencyCandi-
dates
Total
seats
PBP
Green
Sinn
Féin
SDLP
Alli-
ance
UUP
DUP
TUV
Ind.
Seat
gained
by
Seat
formerly
held by
1DUPNorth Antrim-6--1--131---
2DUPEast Antrim-6--1-113----
3UUPSouth Antrim-6--1-113----
4DUPBelfast North-6--21--3----
5SFBelfast West-61-41-----PBPSF
6SDLPBelfast South-6-1111-2--
Green
DUP
SDLP
UUP
7DUPBelfast East-6----213----
8Ind.North Down-6-1--113----
9DUPStrangford-6----123----
10DUPLagan Valley-6----123--UUPDUP
11DUPUpper Bann-6--2--22--SFSDLP
12SDLPSouth Down-6--22-11----
13SFNewry and Armagh-6--31-11----
14UUPFermanagh & South Tyrone-6--21-12--SDLPSF
15SFWest Tyrone-6--31-11----
16SFMid Ulster-6--31-11----
17SDLPFoyle-61-22--1--PBPSDLP
18DUPEast Londonderry-6--11--3-1--
18Total-1082228128163811
 Change since dissolution--+2+1–1–2-+3--–1–1–1
 Assembly at dissolution-108-1291481338121 UKIP1 NI21
 Change during Assembly term-------–3--+1+1+1
 Elected on 5 May 2011218108-129148163811-
 Elected on 7 March 2007256108-1281671836-11 Prog. U.
 Elected on 23 November 2003108--241862730-11 Prog. U.1 UKUP
 Elected on 25 June 1998108--182462820-42 Prog. U.5 UKUP, 2 NIWC

Share of first-preference votes

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Percentage of each constituency's first-preference votes. Four highest percentages in each constituency shaded; absolute majorities underlined. The constituencies are arranged in the geographic order described for the table above; click the icon next to "Constituency" to see them in alphabetical order.

  • [The totals given here are the sum of all valid ballots cast in each constituency, and the percentages are based on such totals. The turnout percentages in the last column, however, are based upon all ballots cast, which also include anything from twenty to a thousand invalid ballots in each constituency. The total valid ballots' percentage of the eligible electorate can correspondingly differ by 0.1% to 2% from the turnout percentage.]
No.2015
MP
MP's %
of 2015
vote
ConstituencyPBP
Green
Sinn
Féin
SDLP
Alli-
ance
UUP
DUP
TUV
Ind.
Others.
Total
votes
Eligible
elector-
ate
Turn-
out
 %
1DUP43.2%North Antrim1.312.97.53.210.743.117.93.3--52.3%
2DUP36.1%East Antrim2.18.13.814.620.236.15.19.9--50.5%
3UUP32.7%South Antrim1.713.29.68.922.237.53.81.41.7--50.4%
4DUP47.0%Belfast North3.52.226.510.67.05.435.01.80.97.1--51.6%
5SF54.2%Belfast West22.90.954.57.30.81.810.41.5--56.7%
6SDLP24.5%Belfast South9.614.220.016.46.722.01.31.38.5--53.6%
7DUP49.3%Belfast East5.92.50.428.711.136.72.43.09.4--56.5%
8Ind.49.2%North Down12.71.01.316.815.541.71.94.44.7--49.0%
9DUP44.4%Strangford2.82.08.310.719.543.04.35.93.4--49.7%
10DUP47.9%Lagan Valley2.92.77.59.521.247.23.32.13.6--52.7%
11DUP32.7%Upper Bann1.124.99.53.121.631.12.60.16.0--53.6%
12SDLP42.3%South Down2.031.131.45.48.512.36.62.8--53.1%
13SF41.1%Newry & Armagh0.740.918.21.014.116.75.52.9--58.4%
14UUP46.4%Fermanagh & S. Tyrone1.940.08.51.112.832.72.50.6--63.5%
15SF43.5%West Tyrone1.242.011.01.311.422.08.92.1--59.1%
16SF48.7%Mid Ulster0.946.715.21.211.918.14.61.4--57.9%
17SDLP47.9%Foyle10.50.428.530.00.63.611.913.90.8--55.3%
18DUP42.2%East Londonderry1.321.89.53.78.336.83.59.75.4--50.1%
18Northern Ireland2.02.724.012.07.012.629.23.43.93.3703,7441,281,59554.9%
Change since 2011+1.2+1.8–2.9–2.2–0.7–0.6–0.8+1.0+1.7+1.0+42,008+71,586–0.7%
Election of May 20110.926.914.27.713.230.02.52.22.3661,7361,210,00955.6%
Election of March 20071.726.215.25.214.930.1-3.82.8690,3131,107,90462.9%
Election of Nov. 20030.423.517.03.722.725.7-5.62.8692,0261,097,52663.1%
Election of June 19980.117.622.06.521.318.1-10.93.5823,5651,178,55669.9%

Incumbents defeated

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Sinn Féin

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Democratic Unionist Party

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Ulster Unionist Party

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Social Democratic and Labour Party

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Independent

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Opinion Polling

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Graphical summary

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PollsterClientDate(s)
conducted
Sample sizeDUP (U)SF (N)SDLP (N)UUP (U)Alliance (O)TUV (U)Green (O)OthersLead
Lucid TalkBelfast Telegraph30 Mar1 Apr 201697026.5%25.8%11.9%15.6%8.1%4.1%2.6%5.4%0.7%
Lucid TalkBelfast Telegraph8–12 Feb 20162,88626.6%24.6%11.2%14.5%8.2%3.5%2.6%8.8%2.0%
Lucid TalkBelfast Telegraph19–21 Oct 20152,51725.8%25.4%10.8%15.0%7.6%3.2%2.4%9.8%0.4%
7 May 20152015 United Kingdom general election
22 May 20142014 Northern Ireland local elections
22 May 20142014 European Parliament election
Lucid TalkBelfast Telegraph17 Sep 2013N/A29.3%26.1%13.8%10.8%10.2%2.2%1.3%6.3%3.2%
Ipsos-MORIBBC17–26 Jan 20131,04624%23%19%13%10%11%1%
2011 Assembly Election5 May 2011N/A29.3%26.3%13.9%12.9%7.7%2.4%0.9%6.6%3.0%

Footnotes

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  1. ^ Sinn Féin's president at the time was Gerry Adams; however he already held a seat in the Republic of Ireland. McGuinness was Sinn Féin's "party leader in the North".

References

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Manifestos

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