2014 Ontario general election

The 2014 Ontario general election was held on June 12, 2014, to elect the members of the 41st Parliament of Ontario. The Liberal Party won a majority of seats in the legislature, allowing its leader, Kathleen Wynne, to continue as premier, moving from a minority to majority government. This was the Liberals' fourth consecutive win since 2003 and an improvement from their performance in the 2011 election.[2] The Progressive Conservatives under Tim Hudak were returned to the official opposition; following the election loss, Hudak announced his resignation as Progressive Conservative leader.[3] The New Democratic Party under Andrea Horwath remained in third place, albeit with an improved share of the popular vote.

2014 Ontario general election

← 2011June 12, 2014 (2014-06-12)2018 →

107 seats in the Legislative Assembly of Ontario
54 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout51.3% (Increase3.1pp)[1]
 First partySecond partyThird party
 
LeaderKathleen WynneTim HudakAndrea Horwath
PartyLiberalProgressive ConservativeNew Democratic
Leader sinceJanuary 26, 2013June 27, 2009March 7, 2009
Leader's seatDon Valley WestNiagara West—GlanbrookHamilton Centre
Last election53 seats, 37.65%37 seats, 35.45%17 seats, 22.74%
Seats before483721
Seats won582821
Seat changeIncrease10Decrease9Steady
Popular vote1,863,9741,505,4361,144,822
Percentage38.67%31.23%23.75%
SwingIncrease1.02ppDecrease4.22ppIncrease1.01pp

Popular vote by riding. As this is an FPTP election, seat totals are not determined by popular vote, but instead via results by each riding. Riding names are listed at the bottom.

Premier before election

Kathleen Wynne
Liberal

Premier after election

Kathleen Wynne
Liberal

The election was called on May 2, 2014, by Lieutenant Governor David Onley,[4] upon the recommendation of Wynne following the announcement that the NDP, whose support was critical to the survival of the Liberals' minority government in the Legislative Assembly, would vote against the Liberals' proposed budget.[5]

With the election, Wynne became the first woman and the first openly gay person to lead a party to a majority victory in an Ontario general election.[6][7]

Timeline (2011–2014)

edit

Seat changes

edit
40th Legislative Assembly of Ontario - Movement in seats held from 2011 to 2014
Party2011Gain/(loss) due to2014
ResignationByelection holdByelection gain
Liberal53(8)348
Progressive Conservative37(2)1137
New Democratic17421
Vacant11
Total107(9)45107
Changes in seats held (2011–2014)
SeatBeforeChange
DateMemberPartyReasonDateMemberParty
Kitchener—WaterlooApril 27, 2012Elizabeth Witmer PCResignation[a 1]September 6, 2012Catherine Fife New Democratic
VaughanAugust 1, 2012Greg Sorbara LiberalResignation[a 2]September 6, 2012Steven Del Duca Liberal
London WestFebruary 14, 2013[8]Chris Bentley LiberalResignation[a 3]August 1, 2013[9]Peggy Sattler New Democratic
Windsor—TecumsehFebruary 14, 2013Dwight Duncan LiberalResignation[a 4]August 1, 2013Percy Hatfield New Democratic
Ottawa SouthJune 12, 2013[10]Dalton McGuinty LiberalResignationAugust 1, 2013John Fraser Liberal
Scarborough—GuildwoodJune 27, 2013[11]Margarett Best LiberalResignationAugust 1, 2013Mitzie Hunter Liberal
Etobicoke—LakeshoreJuly 2, 2013[12]Laurel Broten LiberalResignation[a 5]August 1, 2013Doug Holyday PC
Niagara FallsSeptember 24, 2013[13]Kim Craitor LiberalResignationFebruary 13, 2014[14]Wayne Gates New Democratic
ThornhillDecember 31, 2013[15]Peter Shurman PCResignationFebruary 13, 2014Gila Martow PC
Brampton—SpringdaleMarch 25, 2014[16]Linda Jeffrey LiberalResignation[a 6] Vacant

Other developments

edit
DateEvent
October 6, 2011Election held for members of the Ontario Legislature in the 40th Legislative Assembly of Ontario.
November 22, 2011The 40th Legislative Assembly of Ontario opens with a Speech from the throne.[17]
March 28, 2012Dwight Duncan presents the Government's first minority budget, requiring support from at least one of the other two parties to ensure passage and avoid an early election.
April 10, 2012NDP Leader Andrea Horwath makes several demands to be met in exchange for her party to support the Liberal budget, which support is necessary for the approval of the budget following Tim Hudak's outright rejection of it.[18]
June 15, 2012Premier Dalton McGuinty states he will drop the writ if his budget is not passed.[19]
June 20, 2012The budget bill is passed, after the NDP agrees to abstain, avoiding a summer election.[20]
October 15, 2012Dalton McGuinty announces his resignation as Premier of Ontario and as Leader of the Ontario Liberal Party.[21]
January 26, 2013Kathleen Wynne is elected Leader of the Ontario Liberal Party.[22]
February 11, 2013Wynne is sworn in as Premier, and a new cabinet is sworn in.[23]
February 20, 2013Wynne resumes the 40th Legislative Assembly of Ontario with a Speech of the Throne.
May 1, 2014Progressive Conservative leader Tim Hudak announces that his caucus will be voting against the Liberals' budget, proposed earlier that day.
May 2, 2014NDP leader Andrea Horwath announces that the NDP will be voting against the Liberals' proposed budget, triggering a spring election.[5] Following this, Premier Wynne formally asks Lieutenant Governor David Onley to dissolve the legislature and call an election for June 12, 2014.[24]
June 12, 2014The Liberal Party wins a majority, claiming 58 ridings in the Ontario election.[25] Tim Hudak announced that he is stepping down from his leadership of the PC party.[26]
June 14, 2014A judicial recount has been requested in the riding of Thornhill.[27]
June 24, 2014A judge confirms results in Thornhill are in favour of the Progressive Conservatives.[28]

Incumbents not running for reelection

edit
Electoral districtIncumbent at dissolution and subsequent nomineeNew MPP
Durham John O'Toole[29]Mike Patrick Granville Anderson
Etobicoke Centre Donna Cansfield[30]Yvan Baker Yvan Baker
Kingston and the Islands John Gerretsen[31]Sophie Kiwala Sophie Kiwala
Kitchener Centre John Milloy[32]Daiene Vernile Daiene Vernile
Newmarket—Aurora Frank Klees[33][34]Jane Twinney Chris Ballard
Ottawa—Orléans Phil McNeely[35]Marie-France Lalonde Marie-France Lalonde
Sudbury Rick Bartolucci[36]Andrew Olivier Joe Cimino

Results

edit
582821
LiberalPCNDP
Summary of the standings of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario
PartyParty leaderCandidatesSeatsPopular vote[37][38]
2011Dissol.2014Change#%Change
LiberalKathleen Wynne1075348585 1,863,97438.67%1.02%
Progressive ConservativeTim Hudak1073737289 1,505,43631.23%4.22%
New DemocraticAndrea Horwath1071721214 1,144,82223.75%1.01%
GreenMike Schreiner107235,9114.89%1.97%
LibertarianAllen Small7437,6960.78%0.33%
FreedomPaul McKeever4212,3810.26%0.05%
Family CoalitionEric Ames (interim)64,2880.09%0.13%
None of the AboveGreg Vezina84,2470.09%
Independent 143,8540.08%
CommunistElizabeth Rowley112,2900.05%0.02%
Canadians' ChoiceBahman Yazdanfar41,2930.03%0.03%
Vegan EnvironmentalPaul Figueiras59070.02%0.01%
People's Political PartyKevin Clarke58940.02%0.01%
Northern Ontario HeritageEdward Deibel38920.02%
Special NeedsDanish Ahmed37090.01%0.01%
Confederation of Regionsvacant25510.01%
TrilliumBob Yaciuk23970.01%
Equal ParentingDennis Valenta23660.01%
SocialistMichael Laxer23610.01%
ModerateYuri Duboisky23350.01%
PauperJohn Turmel3194
 Declined Vote[39]31,3990.64%+0.59%
 Vacant1
Total6161071071074,820,547
PartyVotesSeats
Liberal1,863,974
38.67%
1.02%
58 / 107 (54%)
Progressive Conservative1,505,436
31.23%
4.22%
28 / 107 (26%)
New Democratic1,144,822
23.75%
1.01%
21 / 107 (20%)
Green235,911
4.89%
1.97%
0 / 107 (0%)
Libertarian37,696
0.78%
0.33%
0 / 107 (0%)
Popular vote
Liberal
38.67%
PC
31.23%
New Democratic
23.75%
Green
4.89%
Others
1.46%
Seats summary
Liberal
54.21%
PC
26.17%
New Democratic
19.63%

Synopsis of results

edit
Results by riding - 2014 Ontario general election[a 1]
Riding2011Winning partyTurnout
[a 2]
Votes[a 3]
PartyVotesShareMargin
#
Margin
%
LibPCNDPGreenIndOtherTotal
 
Ajax—PickeringLibLib26,25751.06%11,25821.89%50.18%26,25714,9998,2741,58930151,420
Algoma—ManitoulinNDPNDP14,17153.41%7,66728.90%49.38%6,5044,58914,17182844126,533
Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—WestdaleLibLib24,04244.56%5,79010.73%59.02%24,04218,2528,4152,63961153,959
BarriePCLib19,91640.69%2,2494.60%49.18%19,91617,6677,9753,01836648,942
Beaches—East YorkNDPLib17,21840.09%4811.12%56.14%17,2185,98216,7372,32968242,948
Bramalea—Gore—MaltonNDPNDP23,51944.32%5,64610.64%45.03%17,8739,40323,5192,27753,072
Brampton—SpringdaleLibLib16,92740.06%3,4148.08%45.34%16,92710,11713,5131,31138242,250
Brampton WestLibLib24,83245.23%11,46920.89%42.50%24,83213,36312,9851,5042,41854,902
BrantLibLib19,39637.63%3,9497.66%52.51%19,39615,44713,9922,09561451,544
Bruce—Grey—Owen SoundPCPC20,35947.55%8,77320.49%53.93%11,58620,3596,7873,69638842,816
BurlingtonPCLib23,57343.41%3,4876.42%57.73%23,57320,0867,7922,25060854,309
CambridgePCLib18,76338.93%3,0696.37%48.95%18,76315,69410,4132,72660548,201
Carleton—Mississippi MillsPCPC30,59047.49%10,11815.71%56.08%20,47230,5908,7444,61464,420
Chatham-Kent—EssexPCPC14,18337.83%2,5196.72%51.33%9,15814,18311,6641,97151437,490
DavenportNDPLib16,27245.61%1,9505.47%49.56%16,2722,66514,3221,78463135,674
Don Valley EastLibLib19,24855.71%9,99128.92%47.85%19,2489,2574,5001,25628734,548
Don Valley WestLibLib26,21557.01%12,13326.39%53.90%26,21514,0823,5691,28613869045,980
Dufferin—CaledonPCPC18,01739.86%4,1569.19%51.48%13,86118,0175,2697,51853845,203
DurhamPCLib19,81636.45%1,1762.16%55.71%19,81618,64013,0942,38243454,366
Eglinton—LawrenceLibLib22,85554.80%8.77621.04%53.99%22,85514,0793,0601,30514326441,706
Elgin—Middlesex—LondonPCPC20,94646.36%8,91219.72%53.98%9,18320,94612,0342,23678445,183
EssexNDPNDP28,11860.34%17,94938.52%50.20%6,62810,16928,1181,68546,600
Etobicoke CentreLibLib23,84850.28%8,32817.56%56.47%23,84815,5205,7581,2541,05247,432
Etobicoke—LakeshoreLibLib24,31147.49%6,72413.13%53.73%24,31117,5876,3622,06486951,193
Etobicoke NorthLibLib12,16844.90%5,06518.69%42.71%12,1686,1637,10367798727,098
Glengarry—Prescott—RussellLibLib23,56549.74%8,13617.17%53.36%23,56515,4295,9021,52829665547,375
GuelphLibLib22,01441.52%10,96620.68%55.47%22,01411,0489,38510,23034853,025
Haldimand—NorfolkPCPC22,06652.22%12,28029.06%53.97%8,33122,0669,7862,07142,254
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—BrockPCPC21,64140.96%3,1295.92%55.98%18,51221,64110,4312,25552,839
HaltonPCLib33,72444.79%5,7877.69%50.90%33,72427,9379,7582,6181,26275,299
Hamilton CentreNDPNDP18,69752.01%10,24728.50%44.76%8,4505,17318,6973,06756335,950
Hamilton East—Stoney CreekNDPNDP19,95846.81%7,52517.65%48.84%12,4337,57419,9581,74293042,637
Hamilton MountainNDPNDP23,00646.90%8,49817.32%52.85%14,5088,79523,0062,04769949,055
Huron—BrucePCPC18,51239.01%3,8658.14%59.96%14,64718,51210,8431,6511,80447,457
Kenora—Rainy RiverNDPNDP12,88955.66%6,98430.16%46.72%3,6525,90512,88971123,157
Kingston and the IslandsLibLib20,83841.59%6,02712.03%52.14%20,83810,65214,8113,56624250,109
Kitchener CentreLibLib18,47243.14%6,92216.17%52.28%18,47211,5509,7652,47255742,816
Kitchener—ConestogaPCPC17,08336.36%1,4193.02%50.33%15,66417,0839,9583,2771,00146,983
Kitchener—WaterlooPCNDP20,53637.43%4,0027.29%54.95%16,53414,45020,5362,85948154,860
Lambton—Kent—MiddlesexPCPC20,71045.17%8,55018.65%56.93%9,29820,71012,1602,1041,57545,847
Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and AddingtonPCPC21,96643.52%6,92913.73%53.95%15,03721,96610,1843,28350,470
Leeds—GrenvillePCPC23,25356.07%14,75435.58%52.86%8,49923,2537,2192,03047141,472
London—FanshaweNDPNDP17,90350.42%9,70727.34%46.42%7,0668,19617,9031,37811285335,508
London North CentreLibLib16,37935.98%2,5265.55%50.21%16,37912,01613,8532,44582445,517
London WestLibNDP22,24340.36%5,94810.79%56.03%13,07016,29522,2432,3101,18855,106
Markham—UnionvilleLibLib21,51751.33%7,27617.36%44.54%21,51714,2414,2051,50944441,916
Mississauga—Brampton SouthLibLib19,92348.21%8,67220.99%41.48%19,92311,2516,9061,3023511,59041,323
Mississauga East—CooksvilleLibLib20,93452.33%10,45526.14%43.89%20,93410,4796,1581,4081,02240,001
Mississauga—ErindaleLibLib25,35648.98%9,88219.09%46.90%25,35615,4747,7301,2161,98851,764
Mississauga SouthLibLib22,19250.76%7,67817.56%53.55%22,19214,5144,6491,41894643,719
Mississauga—StreetsvilleLibLib22,58752.57%10,52724.50%46.76%22,58712,0605,8851,56686642,964
Nepean—CarletonPCPC30,90146.77%8,92713.51%55.39%21,97430,9018,6283,63094066,073
Newmarket—AuroraPCLib22,99743.94%3,4126.52%53.40%22,99719,5856,0232,1441,58452,333
Niagara FallsLibNDP24,13147.39%7,42914.59%51.21%7,32916,70224,1311,7241,03750,923
Niagara West—GlanbrookPCPC23,37841.82%7,53513.48%58.59%15,84323,37812,4233,0041,25455,902
Nickel BeltNDPNDP20,10462.62%13,07340.72%50.00%7,0313,82720,1041,14532,107
NipissingPCPC13,08541.81%4,70315.03%52.49%8,38213,0858,0571,18820837731,297
Northumberland—Quinte WestPCLib23,41942.97%3,8367.04%55.81%23,41919,5839,2112,28354,496
Oak Ridges—MarkhamLibLib36,78245.55%6,5268.08%46.21%36,78230,2569,3552,7911,57180,755
OakvilleLibLib24,71749.40%5,79611.58%56.13%24,71718,9213,9941,88751850,037
OshawaPCNDP22,23246.70%7,69216.16%50.19%9,05114,54022,2321,78547,608
Ottawa CentreLibLib27,68952.02%16,79531.55%56.85%27,6899,67810,8944,16380853,232
Ottawa—OrléansLibLib29,91153.50%11,38620.37%59.33%29,91118,5255,0222,03641155,905
Ottawa SouthLibLib23,70849.96%8,47317.86%53.71%23,70815,2355,8172,03465647,450
Ottawa—VanierLibLib21,81055.55%13,06033.26%48.86%21,8108,7505,2283,14432939,261
Ottawa West—NepeanLibLib21,03544.84%5,14010.96%55.95%21,03515,8956,7602,89931846,907
OxfordPCPC18,95846.24%8,38520.45%51.92%8,73618,95810,5731,98574941,001
Parkdale—High ParkNDPNDP18,38540.77%5441.21%56.88%17,8415,78718,3852,47960145,093
Parry Sound—MuskokaPCPC15,76140.73%5,60314.48%52.11%10,15815,7614,9997,48429638,698
Perth—WellingtonPCPC15,99238.96%2,4075.86%55.66%13,58515,9927,7642,0053431,35941,048
PeterboroughLibLib24,70946.33%8,80216.50%57.30%24,70915,9079,7282,28739530553,331
Pickering—Scarborough EastLibLib23,20651.96%10,56823.66%54.77%23,20612,6386,6001,56465444,662
Prince Edward—HastingsPCPC19,28141.72%4,1769.04%51.61%15,10519,2818,8292,44855546,218
Renfrew—Nipissing—PembrokePCPC25,24161.07%17,34441.96%54.32%7,89725,2415,9781,33739248941,334
Richmond HillLibLib20,45547.78%4,81311.24%45.69%20,45515,6424,6971,34467042,808
St. CatharinesLibLib19,07041.00%5,25611.30%54.80%19,07013,81411,3501,79248846,514
St. Paul'sLibLib30,02759.74%17,99035.79%57.11%30,02712,0375,0562,56957250,261
Sarnia—LambtonPCPC18,72241.01%2,3955.25%57.35%8,15218,72216,3272,10934045,650
Sault Ste. MarieLibLib17,49058.53%9,88033.06%50.77%17,4903,7047,61096511529,884
Scarborough—AgincourtLibLib17,33249.84%5,29115.22%46.04%17,33212,0414,10590738734,772
Scarborough CentreLibLib19,39055.05%11,79133.48%48.09%19,3907,5997,1451,08635,220
Scarborough—GuildwoodLibLib17,31849.89%7,59721.89%49.24%17,3189,7215,8941,03474434,711
Scarborough—Rouge RiverLibLib16,09538.71%3,0767.40%47.48%16,09511,50013,01957139841,583
Scarborough SouthwestLibLib18,42050.23%9,74626.58%49.91%18,4207,5738,6741,49318532836,673
Simcoe—GreyPCPC25,98847.12%8,78915.94%52.00%17,19925,9887,7934,17255,152
Simcoe NorthPCPC22,17943.96%5,76611.43%53.33%16,41322,1797,8464,01350,451
Stormont—Dundas—South GlengarryPCPC20,62451.72%11,37428.52%52.02%9,25020,6248,3361,06760239,879
SudburyLibNDP14,27442.24%9782.89%51.92%13,2964,66314,2741,21210524333,793
ThornhillPCPC21,88643.99%1060.21%47.83%21,78021,8864,0521,22980449,751
Thunder Bay—AtikokanLibLib15,17652.98%7,12424.87%49.02%15,1763,7798,05296467628,647
Thunder Bay—Superior NorthLibLib15,51955.97%7,35026.51%50.41%15,5191,9918,1699971,04927,725
Timiskaming—CochraneNDPNDP14,66155.48%8,52732.27%50.68%6,1344,52714,66148961526,426
Timmins—James BayNDPNDP11,75651.18%6,22927.12%45.15%5,5275,22611,7564036022,972
Toronto CentreLibLib29,93558.47%20,43739.92%50.86%29,9359,4988,1402,2651,35751,195
Toronto—DanforthNDPNDP19,19044.61%3,2077.46%55.30%15,9834,30419,1902,3511,18943,017
Trinity—SpadinaNDPLib26,61346.34%9,17115.97%49.33%26,6138,03517,4424,0331,31157,434
VaughanLibLib33,87756.21%16,89828.04%44.68%33,87716,9796,9421,3501,12160,269
WellandNDPNDP21,32646.71%8,39318.38%53.20%9,06012,93321,3261,87446045,653
Wellington—Halton HillsPCPC22,45046.61%8,33017.29%55.61%14,12022,4506,8043,5501,24148,165
Whitby—OshawaPCPC24,02740.65%5,4109.15%54.35%18,61724,02713,6212,52332259,110
WillowdaleLibLib24,30052.58%8,83219.11%46.88%24,30015,4684,6931,75846,219
Windsor—TecumsehLibNDP22,81862.16%17,21946.91%42.77%5,5992,11822,8185,49368236,710
Windsor WestLibNDP15,04341.41%1,0422.87%42.71%14,0015,22515,0431,17189136,331
York CentreLibLib16,93547.89%5,81016.43%46.74%16,93511,1255,6451,16349335,361
York—SimcoePCPC19,02540.40%2,7495.84%47.53%16,27619,0258,4202,94641947,086
York South—WestonLibLib15,66947.85%3,46910.59%46.13%15,6693,68712,20079714624932,748
York WestLibLib11,90746.71%1,9107.49%42.24%11,9072,7949,99741811126725,494
  = open seat
  = turnout is above provincial average
  = incumbent re-elected
  = incumbency arose from byelection gain
  1. ^ "2014 General Election". elections.on.ca. Elections Ontario. Retrieved June 18, 2023.
  2. ^ including spoilt ballots
  3. ^ minor political parties receiving less than 1% of the popular vote are aggregated under "Other"; independent candidates are aggregated separately

Maps

edit

Summary analysis

edit
Number of seats held by party in the Legislative Assembly of Ontario (2014).
Retention swing analysis between parties for the 2014 Ontario general election, compared to the results from the previous 2011 election.
Gallagher index for the results of the Ontario general election, 2014. There is significant distortion noted in the Liberal results.
Polling station in Toronto for the Ontario general election, 2014.
Popular vote
partyyearvoteschange
Liberal2011
  
37.65%+1.02pp
2014
  
38.67%
Conservative2011
  
35.45%-4.22pp
2014
  
31.23%
NDP2011
  
22.74%+1.01pp
2014
  
23.75%
Green2011
  
2.92%+1.97pp
2014
  
4.89%
Libertarian2011
  
0.45%+0.33pp
2014
  
0.78%
Others2011
  
0.79%-0.11pp
2014
  
0.68%


Elections to the Legislative Assembly of Ontario - seats won/lost by party, 2011-2014
Party2011Gain from (loss to)2014
LibPCNDP
   Liberal5373(5)58
   Conservative37(7)(2)28
   New Democratic175(3)221
Total1075(10)93(7)107

Pairing off the top three parties, swings were calculated to be:

  • PC to Liberal: 2.6%
  • PC to NDP: 2.6%
  • Liberal to NDP: insignificant

Regional analysis

edit
Elections to the Legislative Assembly of Ontario - seats won by region (2014)
PartyToronto905 BeltHam/NiagaraCentralEastMidwestSouthwestNorthTotal
   Liberal201445741358
   Conservative216764228
   New Democratic22515621
Total2218101114111011107
Elections to the Legislative Assembly of Ontario - change in seats by region (2011-2014)
PartyToronto905 BeltHam/NiagaraCentralEastMidwestSouthwestNorthTotal
   Liberal3141(3)(1)5
   Conservative(1)(2)(4)(2)(9)
   New Democratic(3)111314

Principal races

edit
Party candidates in 2nd place
Party in 1st placeParty in 2nd placeTotal
LibPCNDP
Liberal431558
Progressive Conservative22628
New Democratic14721
Total365021107
Principal races, according to 1st and 2nd-place results
PartiesSeats
 Liberal Progressive Conservative65
 Liberal New Democratic29
 Progressive Conservative New Democratic13
Total107
Candidates ranked 1st to 5th place, by party
Parties1st2nd3rd4th5thTotal
 Liberal583613107
 Progressive Conservative2850281107
 New Democratic2121623107
 Green41012107
 Libertarian16162
 Northern Ontario Heritage11
 Freedom1515
 None of the Above44
 Family Coalition33
 Independent22
 Communist22
 Confederation of Regions22
 Canadians' Choice11
 Trillium11

Significant results among independent and minor party candidates

edit

Those candidates not belonging to a major party, receiving more than 1,000 votes in the election, are listed below:

RidingPartyCandidatesVotesPlaced
Huron—Bruce FamilyCoalitionAndrew Zettel1,3535th
Kitchener—Conestoga LibertarianDavid Schumm1,0015th
London West FreedomAl Gretzky1,1885th
Oak Ridges—Markham LibertarianKarl Boelling1,3585th
Vaughan LibertarianPaolo Fabrizio1,1215th
Wellington—Halton Hills LibertarianJason Cousineau1,0435th

Seats changing hands

edit

There were 17 seats that changed allegiance from the 2011 election.

Resulting composition of the 41st Legislative Assembly of Ontario
SourceParty
LibPCNDPTotal
Seats retainedIncumbents returned42281484
Open seats held55
Byelection loss reversed11
Seats changing handsIncumbents defeated8210
Open seats gained213
Byelection gains held44
Total582821107

Marginal seats

edit

The following seats had a margin of victory of less than 5 percentage points in the election:

Marginal constituencies (Ontario general election, 2014)[40]
ConstituencyRank of partiesMarginsResult
1st2nd3rd1st vs 2nd1st vs 3rd
Barrie40.7%36.1%16.3%4.6%24.4% Lib gain
Beaches—East York40.1%39.0%13.9%1.1%26.2% Lib gain
Durham36.5%34.3%24.1%2.2%12.4% Lib gain
Kitchener—Conestoga36.4%33.3%21.2%3.1%15.2% PC hold
Parkdale—High Park40.8%40.0%12.8%0.8%28.0% NDP hold
Sudbury42.2%39.4%13.8%2.8%28.4% NDP gain
Thornhill44.0%43.8%8.1%0.2%35.9% PC hold
Windsor West41.4%38.5%14.4%2.9%27.0% NDP gain

Opinion polls

edit

Voting intention polls released throughout the election campaign were distinctly inconsistent and contradictory,[41][42][43][44] as shown in the graph and table below. During much of the campaign, different pollsters persistently disagreed, frequently by important margins, on whether the Liberals or Progressive Conservatives held the lead, though by the final days most polls showed the Liberals marginally to comfortably ahead. Still, polls completed on the last day of the campaign by Ipsos Reid and EKOS showed vastly divergent support for the NDP, at 30% and 19%, respectively. Also of note, although four different pollsters released results among "likely voters" alongside their results among all eligible voters in an effort to better predict the outcome of the election based on expected voter turnout, in all cases the former proved to be overall poorer predictors than the latter.[45]

General opinion polls

edit
Evolution of voting intentions during the 2014 Ontario general election campaign. Dots represent results of individual polls. Lines connect successive polls by the same polling firm. Dashes on June 12 represent election results.
Polling firmLast date
of polling
LinkLiberalPCNDPGreenLibertarianOtherType
of poll
Sample
size
Margin
of Error
Election 2014June 12, 2014HTML38.6531.2523.754.841.51Ballot4,851,333
Forum ResearchJune 11, 2014PDF41352031IVR1,054±3%19   20
EKOS[2]June 11, 2014PDF37.331.319.28.23.9IVR1,311±2.7%19   20
Abacus Data[2]June 11, 2014PDF35322661Online1,882±2.3%19   20
Ipsos Reid[2]June 11, 2014HTML3331305Online1,991±2.4% 
EKOS[2]June 10, 2014PDF36.630.221.56.65.0IVR1,332±2.7%19   20
Angus Reid[2]June 10, 2014PDF36322651Online1,866±2.3%19   20
Forum ResearchJune 9, 2014PDF42351931IVR739±4%19   20
Léger MarketingJune 9, 2014PDF37372051Online1,050±3.2%19   20
EKOS[2]June 9, 2014PDF34.734.519.86.74.3IVR1,417±2.6%19   20
EKOS[2]June 8, 2014PDF35.935.917.67.72.8IVR1,331±2.7%19   20
Oraclepoll ResearchJune 8, 2014PDF3536245Telephone1,000±3.1%19   20
Abacus Data[2]June 7, 2014PDF34312851Online1,000±3.1%19   20
EKOS[2]June 6, 2014PDF34.235.520.57.42.4IVR1,767±2.3%19   20
Ipsos Reid[2]June 6, 2014HTML3535264Online2,140±2.4% 
Forum ResearchJune 5, 2014PDF39371761IVR1,022±3%19   20
EKOS[2]June 5, 2014PDF33.934.920.58.42.3IVR1,690±2.4%19   20
EKOS[2]June 4, 2014PDF35.730.919.89.64.0IVR1,303±2.7%19   20
EKOSJune 3, 2014PDF36.431.019.38.44.9IVR997±3.1%19   20
EKOSJune 2, 2014PDF38.830.517.88.44.5IVR934±3.2%19   20
EKOSJune 1, 2014PDF38.533.716.97.83.0IVR927±3.2%19   20
Abacus Data[2]May 31, 2014PDF37302472Online1,000±3.1%19   20
Ipsos Reid[2]May 29, 2014HTML3436237Online868±3.8% 
Forum ResearchMay 27, 2014PDF Archived 2014-05-29 at the Wayback Machine36362071IVR882±3%19   20
Oraclepoll ResearchMay 27, 2014PDF3236257Telephone1,000±3.1%19   20
Nanos ResearchMay 26, 2014PDF37.731.223.75.3Telephone500±4.4%19   20
Abacus Data[2]May 24, 2014PDF34322562Online1,000±3.1%19   20
EKOSMay 23, 2014PDF35.830.020.411.91.9IVR1,215±2.8%19   20
Ipsos Reid[2]May 21, 2014HTML3135286Online800±3.9% 
Forum ResearchMay 20, 2014PDF41342041IVR1,136±3%19   20
Abacus Data[2]May 16, 2014PDF33332662Online2,000±2.2%19   20
EKOSMay 15, 2014PDF37.130.320.97.34.5IVR1,111±2.9%19   20
Ipsos Reid[2]May 14, 2014HTML3039247Online801±3.9% 
Forum ResearchMay 12, 2014PDF Archived 2014-05-17 at the Wayback Machine38352151IVR996±3%19   20
Ipsos Reid[2]May 9, 2014HTML3137284Online821±3.9% 
Innovative ResearchMay 6, 2014PDF38.832.819.96.52.0Online1,000N/A[1]
Innovative ResearchMay 6, 2014PDF38.732.823.74.30.5Telephone500±4.4%19   20
Oraclepoll ResearchMay 5, 2014PDF[permanent dead link]

HTML

3142253Telephone1,000±3.2%19   20
Forum ResearchMay 3, 2014PDF Archived 2014-05-05 at the Wayback Machine33382261IVR1,845±2%19   20
EKOSMay 1, 2014PDF34.731.622.29.42.0IVR1,576±2.5%19   20
Election 2011October 6, 2011PDF37.6535.4522.742.921.24Ballot4,316,382

1 Innovative Research states, for Province Wide Online Survey, "Margin of error not applicable, online samples not random."
2 Data shown above for campaign-period polls are top-line results, typically among all eligible voters. However, certain pollsters additionally report results among "likely voters" in an effort to better predict the actual outcome of the election. When available, these alternative results are shown in the following table:

Likely voters

edit
Polling firmLast date
of polling
LinkLiberalPCNDPGreenLibertarianOther
EKOSJune 11, 2014PDF42.235.916.92.92.1
Abacus DataJune 11, 2014PDF36362351
Ipsos ReidJune 11, 2014HTML3036304
EKOSJune 10, 2014PDF41.133.217.15.62.9
Angus ReidJune 10, 2014PDF34362451
EKOSJune 9, 2014PDF38.136.316.95.73.1
EKOSJune 8, 2014PDF42.235.413.96.42.0
Abacus DataJune 7, 2014PDF34342651
EKOSJune 6, 2014PDF40.735.716.35.61.8
Ipsos ReidJune 6, 2014HTML3240243
EKOSJune 5, 2014PDF39.535.616.76.62
EKOSJune 4, 2014PDF41.432.017.86.23
Abacus DataMay 31, 2014PDF37352252
Ipsos ReidMay 29, 2014HTML2941254
Abacus DataMay 24, 2014PDF36332461
Ipsos ReidMay 21, 2014HTML3041263
Abacus DataMay 16, 2014PDF33362551
Ipsos ReidMay 14, 2014HTML3143224
Ipsos ReidMay 9, 2014HTML2842272

Pre-campaign period

edit
Evolution of voting intentions since the 40th Ontario general election on October 6, 2011. Points represent results of individual polls. Trend lines represent three-poll moving averages.
Pre-campaign period polling (October 2011 – April 2014)
Polling firmLast date of pollingLinkLiberalPCNDPGreenType of pollSample size
Ipsos ReidApril 17, 2014HTML3237275Online813
Innovative ResearchApril 14, 2014PDF3930237Online800
Nanos ResearchApril 11, 2014PDF36.336.021.65.7Telephone503
Forum ResearchApril 7, 2014PDF Archived 2014-04-13 at the Wayback Machine3138237IVR928
Oraclepoll ResearchApril 7, 2014PDF3534248Telephone1,000
EKOSApril 3, 2014PDF32.327.429.08.3IVR1,234
Innovative ResearchMarch 26, 2014PDF3833254Online1,017
Forum ResearchMarch 24, 2014PDF Archived 2014-04-07 at the Wayback Machine3532257IVR908
Nanos ResearchMarch 3, 2014PDF35.732.924.56.8Telephone500
Forum ResearchFebruary 25, 2014HTML3235266IVR1,014
Ipsos ReidFebruary 7, 2014HTML3134314Online828
Forum ResearchJanuary 25, 2014HTML3336264IVR1,222
Nanos ResearchJanuary 20, 2014PDF35.528.127.48.1Telephone500
Forum ResearchDecember 18, 2013HTML3138245IVR1,044
Forum ResearchNovember 26, 2013PDF Archived 2013-12-19 at the Wayback Machine3238236IVR1,126
Ipsos ReidNovember 6, 2013HTML3431315Online832
Forum ResearchOctober 25, 2013HTML3134277IVR1,049
Forum ResearchOctober 1, 2013HTML3336237IVR1,093
Nanos ResearchSeptember 29, 2013PDF36.031.326.16.3Telephone500
Campaign ResearchSeptember 19, 2013PDF3632228IVR1,414
Abacus DataSeptember 4, 2013PDF3033305Online1,000
Forum ResearchAugust 28, 2013PDF3235266IVR1,063
Innovative ResearchAugust 27, 2013HTML37302210Telephone600
Forum ResearchJuly 22, 2013PDF3136275IVR914
Nanos ResearchJuly 14, 2013PDF37.230.627.04.9Telephone500
EKOSJuly 9, 2013PDF31.928.925.99.4IVR830
Forum ResearchJune 26, 2013PDF3335248IVR1,037
Forum ResearchMay 28, 2013PDF3834216IVR918
EKOSMay 26, 2013HTML34.929.622.69.4IVR1,152
Ipsos ReidMay 21, 2013HTML3434265Online1,772
Abacus DataMay 9, 2013PDF3434256Online1,185
Innovative ResearchMay 9, 2013PDF3730256Telephone610
Forum ResearchMay 3, 2013PDF3535254IVR869
Forum ResearchApril 26, 2013PDF3636244IVR1,133
Ipsos ReidApril 17, 2013HTML2837296Online1,360
EKOSApril 10, 2013PDF30.831.725.59.7IVR1,084
Forum ResearchMarch 27, 2013PDF3335265IVR1,156
Forum ResearchMarch 1, 2013PDF3232295IVR2,773
Forum ResearchFebruary 20, 2013PDF2936285IVR1,053
Nanos ResearchFebruary 13, 2013PDF33.633.726.55.4Telephone500
EKOSFebruary 10, 2013PDF32.528.525.610.1IVR1,797
Abacus DataFebruary 6, 2013PDF Archived 2014-04-15 at the Wayback Machine3033315Online1,020
Innovative ResearchJanuary 29, 2013PDF3130279Telephone446
Forum ResearchJanuary 24, 2013PDF2732355IVR1,108
Forum ResearchDecember 17, 2012PDF2733318IVR990
Abacus DataDecember 8, 2012PDF Archived 2014-04-15 at the Wayback Machine2835315Online821
Forum ResearchNovember 28, 2012PDF2935278IVR1,127
Oraclepoll ResearchNovember 24, 2012PDF2637316Telephone
Forum ResearchOctober 31, 2012PDF2237327IVR1,102
Innovative ResearchOctober 22, 2012PDF2832319Telephone600
Angus ReidOctober 17, 2012PDF2636325Online802
Forum ResearchSeptember 25, 2012PDF2037357IVR851
Nanos ResearchAugust 16, 2012PDF34.034.722.16.8Telephone1,000
Forum ResearchAugust 15, 2012PDF2738286IVR1,021
Forum ResearchJune 15, 2012PDF2638305IVR1,098
Forum ResearchJune 4, 2012PDF2836304IVR1,038
EnvironicsMay 25, 2012PDF25372810Telephone500
Forum ResearchMay 14, 2012PDF2734325IVR1,072
Nanos ResearchMay 13, 2012PDF31.033.628.55.6Telephone500
Forum ResearchApril 17, 2012PDF2834315IVR1,084
Nanos ResearchApril 15, 2012PDF35.432.126.56.0Telephone501
EnvironicsApril 13, 2012HTML2737306Telephone500
Forum ResearchMarch 28, 2012PDF3034305IVR1,131
Forum ResearchMarch 13, 2012PDF2840238IVR1,065
Nanos ResearchMarch 5, 2012PDF39.930.024.74.3Telephone500
Forum ResearchFebruary 15, 2012PDF3236265IVR1,218
Forum ResearchJanuary 18, 2012PDF3341204IVR1,041
Nanos ResearchNovember 13, 2011PDF39.134.521.63.5Telephone500
Innovative ResearchNovember 2, 2011PDF3934234Online545
Election 2011October 6, 2011PDF37.6535.4522.742.92Ballot4,316,382

Issues

edit

Economy

edit

Unemployment in Ontario was a major political issue. In particular, the manufacturing sector had shrunk by about 30% or more than 300,000 jobs since 2002.[46]

The Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario proposed a plan called "Million Jobs Plan", outlining their strategy for job creation and economic growth. By reducing tax, government services, energy costs and regulations the PCs projected to create a cumulative 507,488 jobs over eight years.[47] The plan also called for the reduction of 100,000 civil service jobs. Economists and critics noted fundamental mathematical errors with the PCs' projections. They held, even if the PCs' own data were correctly tabulated, only 50,000 extra jobs would be created (in addition to the 500,000 that would be created anyway without any policy change).[48]

The Ontario Liberal Party proposed the 10 year "Jobs and Investment Plan", which proposed infrastructure investments as their main strategy to create jobs.[49]

The Ontario New Democratic Party platform called for targeted tax credits and incentives to encourage job creation.[50]

The Green Party of Ontario policy proposal stated that it would "focus on your job by lowering payroll taxes for small businesses" as well as investing in transit infrastructure and subsidising energy-saving home improvements.[51]

The Ontario Libertarian Party called for mass privatization, lower taxes and general deregulation, eliminating many business requirements such as permitting, insurance and certification that they considered to be interfering with job creation.[52] Their platform called for government spending to be limited to "only core functions of government; defending life, liberty, and property"[53] and as such would have eliminated industry subsidies or incentives of any kind, particularly in the energy sector.[54]

The Communist Party of Ontario called for raising the minimum wage to $19/hr as well as introducing a guaranteed annual income, nationalization of the domestic steel industry, and investments in public housing, infrastructure and social programs, while shifting taxes from lower to higher income-earners and businesses.[55]

Transit

edit

Due to rapid urban and suburban expansion in southern Ontario, traffic congestion had been increasing greatly. A 2013 study by the CD Howe Institute determined that it was costing $7.5-11 billion annually for the economy of Toronto alone.[56][57]

The Liberals promised $29 billion in infrastructure spending, $15 billion of which would go towards building new transit (mostly LRT) lines in the GTHA, based on the outline of Metrolinx's The Big Move plan, as well as an LRT in Ottawa.[58][59] A high-speed rail line crossing the province from the southeast into Quebec was also planned. The PCs promised to finish building the Eglinton Crosstown, but cancel all the other planned lines, and instead focus on quickly expanding GO service.[60] The NDP plan was similar to the Liberal plan, but included an extra $1 billion to get certain projects built faster.[58]

Endorsements

edit

Media endorsements

edit

The following media outlets made endorsements during the campaign:

Liberal

Progressive Conservative

New Democratic Party

Explicitly not endorsing any party

Public figure endorsements

edit

The media has reported the following endorsements by public figures during the campaign:

References

edit
edit