2010 Florida gubernatorial election

The 2010 Florida gubernatorial election took place on November 2, 2010. Republican-turned-Independent incumbent Governor Charlie Crist chose not to run for a second term and he ran unsuccessfully for the Senate seat vacated by Mel Martínez.[2] This resulted in an open race for Governor of Florida in which Republican Rick Scott narrowly defeated Democrat Alex Sink.

2010 Florida gubernatorial election

← 2006November 2, 20102014 →
Turnout48.7%Increase1.9[1]
 
Nominee Rick ScottAlex Sink
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Running mate Jennifer CarrollRod Smith
Popular vote2,619,3352,557,785
Percentage48.87%47.72%

Scott:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Sink:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%      No votes

Governor before election

Charlie Crist
Independent

Elected Governor

Rick Scott
Republican

Despite mixed to unfavorable ratings, Rick Scott benefited greatly from the midterm GOP wave in which Republicans made significant gains across the country.[3] Scott was one of six Republican gubernatorial pick-ups nationwide (counting Crist as an Independent).

The tight and highly contentious election was one of the standout races in 2010. Despite not professing direct allegiance to the movement,[4] Scott benefited from support and endorsement by Tea Party activists,[3][5] an influential conservative voting bloc of the 2010 midterms. Furthermore, Scott ran aggressively against the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), and exit polls indicated considerable support for that position.[6]This election was the first Florida gubernatorial election since 1982 where the winner of the gubernatorial election was of the same party as the winner of the concurrent United States Senate election.

Primary Elections edit

Democratic edit

Candidates edit

Alex Sink, the CFO of Florida, was mentioned as a possible candidate to run for Senate or Governor in 2010,[7][8] but initially declined. When Charlie Crist announced he would not run for re-election, Sink immediately announced her campaign for governor. Sink was the wife of Bill McBride, who ran unsuccessfully for governor in 2002.

Sink faced only token opposition in the primary. Her lone opponent was former Socialist Party presidential nominee Brian Moore.[9] On primary day, Sink won the Democratic nomination with nearly 77% of the vote.

County results
Democratic primary results[10]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticAlex Sink663,80276.9%
DemocraticBrian Moore199,89623.1%
Total votes863,698 100.0%

Republican edit

In May 2009, Republican incumbent governor Charlie Crist announced he would not run for re-election, and instead would run for U.S. Senate.[11] The move immediately turned the race competitive, as GOP-hopefuls lined up to run for the open seat. Former congressman and Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum emerged as the early favorite. McCollum had previously lost the election for Senate in 2000, and lost the Republican nomination for Senate in 2004. This would be his third attempt at a major statewide campaign.

Just before the deadline, Rick Scott jumped into the primary fight. Scott started dumping millions of his own personal fortune into the race.[12] The race quickly became one of the most expensive and "nasty" primary campaigns in recent Florida history.[13] Scott and McCollum lashed out with very negative attacks against each other. Scott ran as a political "outsider", and led some early polls, but McCollum re-took the lead in polls just before primary day. Scott benefited in the absentee voting, while McCollum expected to make up the difference based on turnout. On primary day, Scott won the nomination with just over 46% of the vote. The dejected McCollum team reluctantly conceded after midnight.

County results
Republican primary results[10]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanRick Scott595,47446.4%
RepublicanBill McCollum557,42743.4%
RepublicanMike McCalister130,05610.1%
Total votes1,282,957 100.0%

General Election edit

Candidates edit

Republican edit

Democratic edit

  • Alex Sink, Chief Financial Officer of Florida

Independence Party of Florida edit

  • Peter L. Allen, electrical inspector

No party affiliation edit

The race was dominated by the two major party candidates and spending on their behalf. By the October 25, 2010, Tampa debate between Scott and Sink, Scott had spent $60 million of his own money on the campaign compared to Sink's $28 million.[15] Total campaign expenditure for the race exceeded $100 million, far exceeding any previous spending for a governor's race in Florida.[16] Scott spent $78 million of his personal wealth in the race.[17] Sink made an issue of Scott's connections to Columbia/HCA, a Medicare billing fraud scandal.[3]

One of the turning points in the campaign came during the debate. During a commercial break, Sink's make-up artist delivered a text message on her cell phone to Sink, in direct violation of the debate rules. The rules infraction was immediately pointed out by Scott and the debate moderators.[18] Sink's team was accused of cheating during the debate, and the aide who delivered the message was fired from the campaign the next morning. Afterwards, media and observers were very critical of the gaffe.

Predictions edit

SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report[19]TossupOctober 14, 2010
Rothenberg[20]TossupOctober 28, 2010
RealClearPolitics[21]TossupNovember 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball[22]Lean R (flip)October 28, 2010
CQ Politics[23]TossupOctober 28, 2010

Polling edit

Democratic primary edit

List of Democratic primary polling numbers
Poll sourceDates administeredAlex SinkMichael E. Arth
Mason DixonJune 24–26, 200949%4%

Republican primary edit

List of Republican primary polling numbers
Poll sourceDates administeredBill McCollumRick ScottPaula Dockery
QuinnipiacAugust 21–22, 201039%35%
Public Policy PollingAugust 21–22, 201040%47%
Mason-DixonAugust 17–19, 201045%36%
QuinnipiacAugust 11–16, 201044%35%
Sunshine State NewsAugust 12–15, 201042%44%
Mason DixonAugust 9–11, 201034%30%
Ipsos/Florida Newspapers[dead link]August 6–10, 201032%42%
Mason DixonAugust 2–4, 201031%37%
The Florida Poll Archived August 22, 2010, at the Wayback MachineJuly 24–28, 201025%41%
QuinnipiacJuly 22–27, 201032%43%
Public Policy PollingJuly 16–18, 201029%43%
Florida Chamber of CommerceJune 9–13, 201030%35%
QuinnipiacJune 2–8, 201031%44%
Mason-DixonMay 3–5, 201038%24%7%
Research 2000November 16–18, 200945%9%
Strategic VisionMay 29–31, 200944%28%

General election edit

Polling for the 2010 Florida Gubernatorial Election
Poll sourceDates administeredBud Chiles (I)Rick Scott (R)Alex Sink (D)
Mason-DixonMay 3–5, 201036%38%
Rasmussen ReportsMay 16, 201041%40%
Rasmussen ReportsJune 7, 201045%40%
QuinnipiacJune 7, 201013%35%26%
Florida Chamber of CommerceJune 9–13, 201015%31%26%
Ipsos/ReutersJuly 9–11, 201012%34%31%
Public Policy PollingJuly 16–18, 201013%30%36%
QuinnipiacJuly 22–27, 201014%29%27%
The Florida Poll Archived August 22, 2010, at the Wayback MachineJuly 24–28, 201011%30%28%
Rasmussen ReportsAugust 2, 201016%35%31%
Ipsos/Florida Newspapers[dead link]August 6–10, 201014%30%29%
Mason-DixonAugust 9–11, 201017%24%40%
QuinnipiacAugust 11–16, 201012%29%33%
Public Policy PollingAugust 21–22, 20108%34%41%
Rasmussen ReportsAugust 25, 20104%45%42%
Rasmussen ReportsSeptember 1, 201045%44%
Sunshine State NewsSeptember 1–7, 201042%44%
CNN Archived September 9, 2010, at the Wayback MachineSeptember 2–7, 201042%49%
FOX NewsSeptember 11, 201041%49%
Reuters/IpsosSeptember 12, 201045%47%
Mason-DixonSeptember 20–22, 201040%47%
Rasmussen ReportsSeptember 22, 201050%44%
QuinnipiacSeptember 23–28, 201049%43%
CNN Archived September 30, 2010, at the Wayback MachineSeptember 24–28, 201047%45%
Sunshine State NewsSeptember 26 – October 3, 201044%42%
TCPalm.com / ZogbySeptember 27–29, 201039%41%
Florida Chamber of CommerceSeptember 27–30, 201046%42%
Rasmussen ReportsSeptember 30, 201046%41%
Mason-DixonOctober 4–6, 201040%44%
Miami-Dade College[permanent dead link]October 5, 201052%46%
QuinnipiacOctober 6–8, 201045%44%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 7, 201050%47%
PPPOctober 9–10, 201041%46%
SusquehannaOctober 12–13, 201045%48%
Suffolk Archived October 22, 2010, at the Wayback MachineOctober 14–17, 201038%45%
CNN Opinion ResearchOctober 15–19, 201049%46%
Ipsos/ St. Pete TimesOctober 15–19, 201044%41%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 18, 201050%44%
Naples Daily News / ZogbyOctober 18–21, 201039%43%
QuinnipiacOctober 18–24, 201041%45%
SusquehannaOctober 20, 201045%45%
Susquehanna/ Sunshine State NewsOctober 24–25, 201047%45%
Univ. of South Fla. Polytechnic Archived November 3, 2010, at the Wayback MachineOctober 23–27, 201044%39%
QuinnipiacOctober 25–31, 201043%44%
Mason-DixonOctober 26–27, 201043%46%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 27, 201048%45%
Susquehanna/ Sunshine StateOctober 29–31, 201046%49%
Public Policy PollingOctober 30–31, 201047%48%

Hypothetical Polls edit

Bill McCollum (R) vs. Alex Sink (D) vs. Bud Chiles (I)
Poll sourceDates administeredBill McCollumAlex SinkBud Chiles
QuinnipiacAugust 11–16, 201029%31%12%
Mason-DixonAugust 9–11, 201035%37%13%
Ipsos/Florida Newspapers[dead link]August 6–10, 201026%30%12%
Rasmussen ReportsAugust 2, 201027%31%20%
The Florida Poll Archived August 22, 2010, at the Wayback MachineJuly 24–28, 201026%27%12%
QuinnipiacJuly 22–27, 201027%26%14%
Public Policy PollingJuly 16–18, 201023%37%14%
Ipsos/ReutersJuly 9–11, 201030%31%12%
Florida Chamber of CommerceJune 9–13, 201030%26%15%
QuinnipiacJune 7, 201033%25%19%
Rasmussen ReportsJune 7, 201040%38%
Rasmussen ReportsMay 16, 201043%35%
Mason-DixonMay 7, 201045%36%
Rasmussen ReportsMarch 18, 201047%36%
Public Policy PollingMarch 5–8, 201044%31%
Rasmussen ReportsFebruary 18, 201048%35%
Fabrizo/McLaughlinJanuary 31, 201041%32%
Rasmussen ReportsJanuary 27, 201046%35%
QuinnipiacJanuary 27, 201041%31%<1%
Rasmussen ReportsDecember 14, 200944%39%
Research 2000November 16–18, 200935%33%
St. Pete Times/Miami Herald/Bay News 9October 25–28, 200937%38%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 20, 200946%35%
QuinnipiacAugust 19, 200938%34%1%
Public Opinion StrategiesAugust 4–5, 200948%37%
Rasmussen ReportsJune 22, 200942%34%
QuinnipiacJune 2–7, 200934%38%1%
Mason DixonMay 14–18, 200940%34%
Mason DixonMarch 30 – April 1, 200936%35%

Results edit

The 2010 governor's race was one of Florida's closest, decided by just over 60,000 votes. Unlike the concurrent Senate race, the governor's race remained in doubt late into the night. When polls closed, Scott had a lead, but as the night progressed, the margin narrowed. The next day, with over 99% of precincts reporting, Scott maintained about a 1% lead in the raw vote.[3] Despite a small number of still-uncounted ballots from Palm Beach County, Sink's chances of winning were negligible, as Scott was still ahead by over 50,000 – much more than the 3,000 uncounted ballots, and more importantly, still above the threshold of 0.5% to trigger a mandatory recount.[3] Sink conceded the day after the election.

Exit polls showed that Scott won among independents and the two candidates split the Hispanic vote.[3]

2010 Florida gubernatorial election[24]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
RepublicanRick Scott 2,619,335 48.87% -3.31%
DemocraticAlex Sink2,557,78547.72%+2.62%
IndependencePeter Allen123,8312.31%
IndependentC. C. Reed18,8420.35%
IndependentMichael E. Arth18,6440.35%
IndependentDaniel Imperato13,6900.26%
IndependentFarid Khavari7,4870.14%
Write-ins1210.00%
Plurality61,5501.15%-5.92%
Turnout5,359,735
Republican gain from IndependentSwing

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic edit

See also edit

Notes edit

References edit

External links edit

Official campaign websites (Archived)