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2010 Colorado gubernatorial election

For related races, see 2010 United States gubernatorial elections.

The 2010 Colorado gubernatorial election was held on Tuesday, November 2, 2010 to elect the Governor of Colorado, who would serve a four-year term that began in January 2011. One-term incumbent Democrat Bill Ritter announced that he would not run for re-election in 2010.[1] Dan Maes, backed by the Tea Party movement, won the Republican nomination in the primary with 50.6% of the vote and a 1.3% margin over rival Scott McInnis. In claiming victory, Maes called on former representative Tom Tancredo, running as the Constitution Party's nominee to "stop your campaign tonight." Denver mayor John Hickenlooper was unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Hickenlooper won the race with over 50% of the vote.[2]

2010 Colorado gubernatorial election
← 2006November 2, 20102014 →
 
NomineeJohn HickenlooperTom TancredoDan Maes
PartyDemocraticConstitutionRepublican
Running mateJoe GarciaPat MillerTambor Williams
Popular vote915,436652,376199,792
Percentage51.05%36.38%11.14%
Hickenlooper:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Tancredo:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%
Maes:      30–40%
Governor before election

Bill Ritter
Democratic

Elected Governor

John Hickenlooper
Democratic

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Declared

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Declined

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Results

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Democratic primary results[8]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticJohn Hickenlooper 303,245 100.00
Total votes303,245 100.00

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Declared

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Declined

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Pre-primary polling and developments

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While a head-to-head polling matchup of McInnis against Maes by Survey USA was not reported for July 2010, the McInnis plagiarism story and the entry of Tom Tancredo into the race led to a changed landscape in advance of the August 10 Republican primary. "When asked who would be the 'strongest Republican gubernatorial candidate,' ... Tancredo easily led the pack of six choices with 29 percent. McInnis followed with 19 percent, and ... Maes, had 13 percent. Another 17 percent ... were not sure", in the Survey USA poll commissioned by the Denver Post and 9News. While Tancredo's run was on the Constitution Party ticket, he spoke as a Republican in responding to the poll results. "Tancredo, originally a McInnis supporter, has said that both Maes and McInnis should 'both eventually drop out' of the race even if it's after one wins the primary. 'Neither can win the general election,' he said. Tancredo said he was 'surprised and flattered' by the poll results. 'I want us as a party to get this governor's seat,' he said. 'If I can do it, believe me, I will.'"[14] Tancredo was delivered a "message, signed by tea party, 9-12 Project and constitutionalist groups, [which] read in part: 'Withdraw your ultimatum, stay in the Republican Party, let the process play out for the governor's race within the rules already set forth, and continue to help us improve this party, its candidates, and the process — in other words to trust and respect the newly awakened, energized and informed voters of Colorado.'"[15] As of late July, both McInnis and Maes had rejected Tancredo's ultimatum that they withdraw before or after the primary. And "political observers — and even state GOP chairman Dick Wadhams — were already predicting [Tancredo]'s entry into the race sounded the death knell for the party's gubernatorial bid and may cause problems for state legislative races. 'It's difficult if not impossible to beat ... Hickenlooper with Tancredo in the race,' said Wadhams, noting that Tancredo will siphon just enough votes away from the GOP nominee to give Hickenlooper a win."[16] Post-primary polling (see below), however, showed growing support for Tancredo with Maes in danger of receiving a vote share in the single digits.

McInnis vs. Maes

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Poll sourceDates administeredDan
Maes		Scott
McInnis
Public Policy PollingAugust 7–8, 201040%41%
Survey USA Archived 2012-06-14 at the Wayback MachineAugust 1, 201043%39%
Survey USAJune 15–17, 201029%57%

Results

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Results by county:
  Maes
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  McInnis
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
Republican primary results[8]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanDan Maes 197,629 50.66
RepublicanScott McInnis192,47949.34
Total votes390,108 100.00

Libertarian Party

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Candidates

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Results

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Libertarian primary results[8]
PartyCandidateVotes%
LibertarianJaimes Brown 1,438 64.03
LibertarianDan Sallis80835.98
Total votes2,246 100.00

American Constitution Party

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Confirmed

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General election

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Tom Tancredo supporters

Candidates

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  • Tom Tancredo (ACP), former Republican U.S. Representative
  • Jaimes Brown (L)
  • Running mate: Ken Wyble
  • Jason R. Clark (UAF)
  • Paul Fiorino (I)
  • Running mate: Heather McKibbin
  • John Hickenlooper (D), Mayor of Denver
  • Dan Maes (R), businessman

Predictions

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SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report[20]Likely DOctober 14, 2010
Rothenberg[21]Lean DOctober 28, 2010
RealClearPolitics[22]TossupNovember 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball[23]Likely DOctober 28, 2010
CQ Politics[24]TossupOctober 28, 2010

Polling

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Graphical summary
Poll sourceDates administeredJohn
Hickenlooper (D)		Dan
Maes (R)		Tom
Tancredo (ACP)
Public Policy PollingOctober 30–31, 201047%8%43%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 29, 201049%5%42%
Public Policy PollingOctober 21–23, 201047%5%44%
Magellan StrategiesOctober 22, 201044%9%43%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 15, 201042%12%38%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 3, 201043%16%35%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 30 – October 2, 201047%13%33%
Survey USASeptember 28–30, 201046%15%34%
Fox NewsSeptember 25, 201044%15%34%
CNN/TimeSeptember 17–21, 201047%21%29%
Rasmussen ReportsSeptember 14, 201046%21%25%
Rasmussen ReportsAugust 29, 201036%24%14%
Ipsos/ReutersAugust 20–22, 201041%33%16%
45%45%––
Rasmussen ReportsAugust 11, 201043%31%18%
Public Policy PollingAugust 7–8, 201048%23%22%
50%38%––
Rasmussen ReportsAugust 2, 201042%27%24%
Survey USA[permanent dead link]July 27–29, 201046%24%24%
50%41%––
Rasmussen ReportsJuly 15, 201046%43%––
Survey USAJune 15–17, 201044%45%––
Rasmussen ReportsJune 14, 201041%41%––

Results

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2010 Colorado gubernatorial election[25]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
DemocraticJohn Hickenlooper 915,436 51.05% -5.93%
ConstitutionTom Tancredo652,37636.38%+35.76%
RepublicanDan Maes199,79211.14%-29.02%
LibertarianJaimes Brown13,3650.75%-0.75%
IndependentJason R. Clark8,6010.48%—
IndependentPaul Noel Fiorino3,4920.19%—
Write-ins860.00%—
Majority263,06014.67%-2.15%
Turnout1,793,148
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Constitution

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Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

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Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

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Counties that flipped from Democratic to Constitution

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Aftermath

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American Constitution Party gets major party status

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A result of Tancredo's ACP candidacy and Maes' political implosion was the party's legal elevation from minor to major party status.

Under state law, Tancredo's showing in the gubernatorial election elevated the American Constitution Party from minor to major party status. Any party that earns 10% or more of the votes cast for governor is a "major party." Major party status gives the party a place at or near the top of the ballot in the 2014 gubernatorial election. However, because of the additional organizational, financial, and compliance requirements triggered by major party status, ACP leaders have been ambivalent about the change.[26][27]

As the campaign wore on, the question was not whether Hickenlooper would win, but whether Maes would get at least 10% of the vote. Had he dropped below 10%, the Republican Party would have been legally defined as a minor party under Colorado law. Maes' campaign received no financial support from the Colorado GOP, RNC, nor the Republican Governor's Association. Ultimately, he finished with 11 percent of the vote, just 20,477 votes over the threshold, allowing the Colorado GOP to retain major party status.[28]

The Constitution Party did not field a candidate in the 2014 election, and thus lost its major party status.

See also

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References

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Debate
Official campaign websites (Archived)
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