1988 United States presidential election in California

1988 United States presidential election in California
Turnout	72.81% (of registered voters) 2.12 pp ; 53.51% (of eligible voters) 5.57 pp
Bush 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80%	Dukakis 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90%
President before election; Ronald Reagan; Republican	Elected President ; George H. W. Bush; Republican

The 1988 United States presidential election in California took place on November 8, 1988, and was part of the 1988 United States presidential election. Voters chose 47 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Dukakis holds an election eve rally at the Pauley Pavilion

California voted for the Republican nominee, Vice President George H. W. Bush, over the Democratic nominee, Massachusetts governor Michael Dukakis by a margin of 3.57 percent. Bush won forty-four of the state's fifty-eight counties, but the election was kept close by Dukakis’ strong performance in the Bay Area and his victory in Los Angeles, the state's most populated county. Also, Dukakis won at least 31% of the vote in every county and at least 40 percent in forty of them. Much like Vermont in the same year, California was seen by observers as a swing state in this year's presidential election cycle due to fairly close polling.

California weighed in for this election as 4.2% more Democratic than the nation at large. As of the 2020 presidential election, this is the last presidential election in which the state of California was carried by a Republican candidate. From the next election onwards, California would, like the other two states on the West Coast, transition from being swing states to voting consistently for Democratic candidates (Oregon and Washington even voted for Dukakis in 1988), forming a "blue wall" of sorts over the next three decades. Bush is also the last Republican to carry the following counties in a presidential election: Imperial, Monterey, Napa, Sacramento, San Benito and Santa Barbara, the last Republican to win any county in the Bay Area (Napa), the last Republican to secure at least one-quarter of the vote in San Francisco, and the last Republican to secure at least 40% of the vote in Los Angeles County.

Bush became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Sonoma County, a Republican stronghold for most of the 20th century,^[2] since Benjamin Harrison in 1888, as well as the first to do so without carrying Los Angeles County, a bellwether county from 1920 to 1984, since Rutherford Hayes in 1876. Due to Bush's victory in California, this was also the most recent presidential election when the state of Texas would not be the biggest electoral vote prize won by the Republican candidate, and likewise for the Democratic nominee in regards to California, which instead was New York.

Results

1988 United States presidential election in California^[3]
Party		Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Republican	George Herbert Walker Bush	5,054,917	51.13%	47
	Democratic	Michael Stanley Dukakis	4,702,233	47.56%	0
	Libertarian	Ron Paul	70,105	0.71%	0
	Independent	Lenora Fulani	31,180	0.32%	0
	American Independent	James C. Griffin	27,818	0.28%	0
	No party	David Duke (write-in)	483	0.00%	0
	No party	Eugene McCarthy (write-in)	234	0.00%	0
	No party	Herbert G. Lewin (write-in)	58	0.00%	0
	No party	Write-in	25	0.00%	0
	No party	Larry Holmes (write-in)	11	0.00%	0
Invalid or blank votes					—
Totals			9,887,064	100.00%	47
Voter turnout					—

By county

County	George H.W. Bush Republican		Michael Dukakis Democratic		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total votes cast
County	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%	Total votes cast
Alameda	162,815	33.99%	310,283	64.78%	5,899	1.23%	-147,468	-30.79%	478,997
Alpine	306	55.43%	230	41.67%	16	2.90%	76	13.76%	552
Amador	6,893	55.87%	5,197	42.12%	248	2.01%	1,696	13.75%	12,338
Butte	40,143	56.04%	30,406	42.45%	1,082	1.51%	9,737	13.59%	71,631
Calaveras	7,640	56.28%	5,674	41.80%	260	1.92%	1,966	14.48%	13,574
Colusa	3,077	59.49%	2,022	39.10%	73	1.41%	1,055	20.39%	5,172
Contra Costa	158,652	47.86%	169,411	51.10%	3,448	1.04%	-10,759	-3.24%	331,511
Del Norte	3,714	49.73%	3,587	48.03%	167	2.24%	127	1.70%	7,468
El Dorado	30,021	59.33%	19,801	39.13%	781	1.54%	10,220	20.20%	50,603
Fresno	94,835	49.95%	92,635	48.79%	2,400	1.26%	2,200	1.16%	189,870
Glenn	4,944	62.06%	2,894	36.33%	128	1.61%	2,050	25.73%	7,966
Humboldt	21,460	41.15%	29,781	57.11%	905	1.74%	-8,321	-15.96%	52,146
Imperial	12,889	55.16%	10,243	43.84%	233	1.00%	2,646	11.32%	23,365
Inyo	5,042	64.34%	2,653	33.85%	142	1.81%	2,389	30.49%	7,837
Kern	90,550	61.48%	55,083	37.40%	1,660	1.12%	35,467	24.08%	147,293
Kings	12,118	56.41%	9,142	42.56%	222	1.03%	2,976	13.85%	21,482
Lake	9,366	48.03%	9,828	50.39%	308	1.58%	-462	-2.36%	19,502
Lassen	5,157	58.59%	3,446	39.15%	199	2.26%	1,711	19.44%	8,802
Los Angeles	1,239,716	46.88%	1,372,352	51.89%	32,603	1.23%	-132,636	-5.01%	2,644,671
Madera	13,255	54.59%	10,642	43.83%	384	1.58%	2,613	10.76%	24,281
Marin	46,855	39.73%	69,394	58.85%	1,671	1.42%	-22,539	-19.12%	117,920
Mariposa	3,768	54.53%	2,998	43.39%	144	2.08%	770	11.14%	6,910
Mendocino	12,979	41.94%	17,152	55.42%	816	2.64%	-4,173	-13.48%	30,947
Merced	21,717	51.20%	20,105	47.40%	592	1.40%	1,612	3.80%	42,414
Modoc	2,518	62.68%	1,416	35.25%	83	2.07%	1,102	27.43%	4,017
Mono	2,177	61.38%	1,284	36.20%	86	2.42%	893	25.18%	3,547
Monterey	50,022	49.83%	48,998	48.81%	1,361	1.36%	1,024	1.02%	100,381
Napa	23,235	50.19%	22,283	48.14%	772	1.67%	952	2.05%	46,290
Nevada	21,383	57.76%	14,980	40.46%	660	1.78%	6,403	17.30%	37,023
Orange	586,230	67.75%	269,013	31.09%	10,064	1.16%	317,217	36.66%	865,307
Placer	42,096	59.59%	27,516	38.95%	1,030	1.46%	14,580	20.64%	70,642
Plumas	4,603	51.06%	4,251	47.15%	161	1.79%	352	3.91%	9,015
Riverside	199,979	59.46%	133,122	39.58%	3,247	0.96%	66,857	19.88%	336,348
Sacramento	201,832	51.01%	188,557	47.65%	5,301	1.34%	13,275	3.36%	395,690
San Benito	5,578	54.11%	4,559	44.23%	171	1.66%	1,019	9.88%	10,308
San Bernardino	235,167	59.99%	151,118	38.55%	5,723	1.46%	84,049	21.44%	392,008
San Diego	523,143	60.19%	333,264	38.34%	12,788	1.47%	189,879	21.85%	869,195
San Francisco	72,503	26.14%	201,887	72.78%	3,004	1.08%	-129,384	-46.64%	277,394
San Joaquin	75,309	54.39%	61,699	44.56%	1,445	1.05%	13,610	9.83%	138,453
San Luis Obispo	46,613	55.85%	35,667	42.73%	1,187	1.42%	10,946	13.12%	83,467
San Mateo	109,261	42.94%	141,859	55.74%	3,360	1.32%	-32,598	-12.80%	254,480
Santa Barbara	77,524	54.24%	63,586	44.48%	1,830	1.28%	13,938	9.76%	142,940
Santa Clara	254,442	46.99%	277,810	51.30%	9,276	1.71%	-23,368	-4.31%	541,528
Santa Cruz	37,728	36.77%	63,133	61.53%	1,750	1.70%	-25,405	-24.76%	102,611
Shasta	32,402	59.36%	21,171	38.79%	1,012	1.85%	11,231	20.57%	54,585
Sierra	860	50.71%	791	46.64%	45	2.65%	69	4.07%	1,696
Siskiyou	9,056	50.88%	8,365	47.00%	376	2.12%	691	3.88%	17,797
Solano	50,314	47.43%	54,344	51.23%	1,430	1.34%	-4,030	-3.80%	106,088
Sonoma	67,725	41.91%	91,262	56.48%	2,596	1.61%	-23,537	-14.57%	161,583
Stanislaus	51,648	53.07%	44,685	45.92%	982	1.01%	6,963	7.15%	97,315
Sutter	14,100	67.47%	6,557	31.09%	241	1.14%	7,543	36.38%	20,898
Tehama	9,854	56.52%	7,213	41.37%	367	2.11%	2,641	15.15%	17,434
Trinity	3,267	54.63%	2,518	42.11%	195	3.26%	749	12.52%	5,980
Tulare	46,891	59.61%	30,711	39.04%	1,067	1.35%	16,180	20.57%	78,669
Tuolumne	10,646	54.00%	8,717	44.22%	352	1.78%	1,929	9.78%	19,715
Ventura	147,604	61.64%	89,065	37.19%	2,804	1.17%	58,539	24.45%	239,473
Yolo	22,358	41.89%	30,429	57.01%	585	1.10%	-8,071	-15.12%	53,372
Yuba	8,937	61.37%	5,444	37.38%	182	1.25%	3,493	23.99%	14,563
Total	5,054,917	51.13%	4,702,233	47.56%	129,914	1.31%	352,684	3.57%	9,887,064

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Bush won 23 of the 45 congressional districts, including five held by Democrats.

District	Bush	Dukakis	Representative
1st	43.9%	56.1%	Douglas H. Bosco
2nd	59.0%	41.0%	Wally Herger
3rd	50.4%	49.6%	Bob Matsui
4th	51.5%	48.5%	Vic Fazio
5th	28.0%	72.0%	Nancy Pelosi
6th	35.2%	64.8%	Barbara Boxer
7th	46.1%	53.9%	George Miller
8th	29.4%	70.6%	Ron Dellums
9th	42.4%	57.6%	Pete Stark
10th	44.2%	55.8%	Don Edwards
11th	41.3%	58.7%	Tom Lantos
12th	50.1%	49.9%	Tom Campbell
13th	49.8%	50.2%	Norman Mineta
14th	59.8%	40.2%	Norman D. Shumway
15th	52.8%	47.2%	Tony Coelho
16th	45.0%	55.0%	Leon Panetta
17th	59.4%	40.6%	Chip Pashayan
18th	46.5%	53.5%	Richard Lehman
19th	54.7%	45.3%	Bob Lagomarsino
20th	65.3%	34.7%	Bill Thomas
21st	65.1%	34.9%	Elton Gallegly
22nd	64.7%	35.3%	Carlos Moorhead
23rd	43.5%	56.5%	Anthony Beilenson
24th	34.3%	65.7%	Henry Waxman
25th	32.1%	67.9%	Edward Roybal
26th	44.1%	55.9%	Howard Berman
27th	44.8%	55.2%	Mel Levine
28th	26.4%	73.6%	Julian Dixon
29th	19.3%	80.7%	Augustus Hawkins
30th	46.6%	53.4%	Matthew Martinez
31st	34.8%	65.2%	Mervyn Dymally
32nd	50.4%	49.6%	Glenn Anderson
33rd	63.1%	36.9%	David Dreier
34th	49.1%	50.9%	Ed Torres
35th	66.2%	33.8%	Jerry Lewis
36th	52.0%	48.0%	George Brown
37th	61.5%	38.5%	Al McCandless
38th	61.7%	38.3%	Bob Dornan
39th	71.5%	28.5%	William Dannemeyer
40th	68.7%	31.3%	Christopher Cox
41st	59.1%	40.9%	Bill Lowery
42nd	65.7%	34.3%	Dana Rohrabacher
43rd	68.8%	31.2%	Ron Packard
44th	47.9%	52.1%	Jim Bates
45th	66.8%	33.2%	Duncan Hunter

Analysis

California voted Republican in 1988 for the ninth time out of ten elections from 1952 on, confirming its status as a Republican electoral bulwark during this period.^[4] However, George H. W. Bush won California by only 3.57% even as he won nationally by 7.72%; and Florida displaced it as the state providing the Republican with his biggest raw-vote margin in the nation. Signs of the phenomena that would come to make California a 'Blue Wall' state from 1992 on emerged in this election; for the first time since 1916, Los Angeles County voted for the loser of the national election. Bush was also nearly swept out of the Bay Area, losing populous former Republican strongholds such as Santa Clara, San Mateo, Sonoma, and Marin Counties (as well as Santa Cruz County, the northernmost Central Coast county).

While Bush continued to do well in San Diego, Orange, and Ventura Counties (and, to a lesser extent, Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, and Monterey Counties, as well as in relatively thinly populated Napa County), this represented a significant erosion of the Republican Party's traditional base along the length of California's coast.^[5] By 2016 and 2020, this process was complete, as every coastal county in the state save Del Norte voted Democratic two elections in a row.

On the other hand, in contrast to the 1976, 1968, 1960, and 1948 elections in California, all of which had been close (and which had been won by the Democrat in 1948), Dukakis carried little of inland California, which had traditionally been the Democratic base in the state.^[5] Counties that had voted Democratic in all four of those elections, but voted Republican in 1988, included Sacramento, Fresno, Placer, Merced, Shasta, Madera, Amador, Lassen, Plumas, Trinity, and Sierra Counties. Apart from Sacramento, Fresno, and Merced Counties, these have continued to remain as Republican strongholds in the state even as overall it has become increasingly blue in the 21st century. Comparing 1988 directly with what at the time was the most recent close election in California, 1976, Dukakis carried only nine of the 27 counties Carter carried in the state. Three of these (Shasta, Plumas, and Sierra) had even voted for McGovern in the disastrous Democratic defeat of 1972.

References

^ "Historical Voter Registration and Participation in Statewide General Elections 1910-2018" (PDF). California Secretary of State. Retrieved May 5, 2022.
^ "Opinion: The GOP's Long Slide into Irrelevance in California". Times of San Diego. July 3, 2018. Retrieved May 31, 2021.
^ "1988 Presidential General Election Results - California". Dave Leip's U.S. Election Atlas. Retrieved August 25, 2008.
^ "Red States and Blue States Are a Myth". National Review. December 1, 2016. Retrieved December 31, 2020.
^ ^a ^b "The California Republican Party's long slide into irrelevance". Orange County Register. July 2, 2018. Retrieved December 31, 2020.

[1] "Historical Voter Registration and Participation in Statewide General Elections 1910-2018" (PDF). California Secretary of State. Retrieved May 5, 2022.

[2] "Opinion: The GOP's Long Slide into Irrelevance in California". Times of San Diego. July 3, 2018. Retrieved May 31, 2021.

[3] "1988 Presidential General Election Results - California". Dave Leip's U.S. Election Atlas. Retrieved August 25, 2008.

[4] "Red States and Blue States Are a Myth". National Review. December 1, 2016. Retrieved December 31, 2020.

[OCRegister2018-5] "The California Republican Party's long slide into irrelevance". Orange County Register. July 2, 2018. Retrieved December 31, 2020.

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