2016 Nevada Republican presidential caucuses
The 2016 Nevada Republican presidential caucuses took place on February 23 in the U.S. state of Nevada, marking the Republican Party's fourth nominating contest in their series of presidential primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.
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30 pledged delegates to the Republican National Convention | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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With the Democratic Party having already held its Nevada caucuses three days earlier on February 20, the Republican caucus in Nevada was the only presidential primary on that day.
During the 2015 legislative session, lawmakers attempted to change the caucus into a regular primary and at a much earlier date,[1] however the bill failed to advance to a vote.[2]
Candidates edit
Nine candidates were eligible:[3][4]
- Jeb Bush (dropped out)
- Ben Carson
- Chris Christie (dropped out)
- Ted Cruz
- Carly Fiorina (dropped out)
- Jim Gilmore (dropped out)
- John Kasich
- Marco Rubio
- Donald Trump
Debates and forums edit
December 15, 2015 – Las Vegas, Nevada
The fifth debate was held on December 15, 2015, at the Venetian Resort in Las Vegas, Nevada.[5] It was the second debate to air on CNN, and was also broadcast by Salem Radio. The debate was moderated solely by Wolf Blitzer with Dana Bash and Hugh Hewitt serving alongside as questioners.[6]
The debate was split into primetime and pre-primetime groups based on averaged polling numbers; in order to participate in the main debate, candidates had to meet one of three criteria in polls conducted between October 29 and December 13 which were recognized by CNN—either an average of at least 3.5% nationally, or at least 4% in either Iowa or New Hampshire.[7] The secondary debate featured candidates that had reached at least 1% in four separate national, Iowa, or New Hampshire polls that are recognized by CNN.[7] Paul was included in the main debate after not qualifying under the original rules because he received 5% support in Iowa in a Fox News poll.[6][8]
The debate lineup was announced on December 13 to include Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Carson, Bush, Fiorina, Christie, Paul, and Kasich in the primetime debate, and Huckabee, Santorum, Graham, and Pataki in the undercard debate.[6] Commentators suggested that the key confrontation would be between Trump and Cruz, based on their respective polling in Iowa.[9]
Eighteen million people watched the debate, making it the third-largest audience ever for a presidential primary debate.[10] During the debate, the audible coughing was attributed to Ben Carson. His campaign admitted that they all got sick a month prior and Carson had kept the cough for weeks. The cough was "almost gone" and Carson was not really sick at the time.[11]
The undercard debate was the fourth and final debate appearance of Senator Lindsey Graham and former Governor George Pataki, who suspended their campaigns on December 21[12] and December 29,[13] respectively.
Endorsements edit
Having been swept into numerous offices in the previous election, many new Nevada Republican officeholders came out in support of various candidates. Notably, there were splits among different groups of Republicans towards their endorsements. Legislators who had supported a controversial tax hike during the 2015 session came out in support of Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio, while those who opposed it supported Rand Paul, Ted Cruz or Donald Trump.
(Note: This list contains endorsements only for candidates who were still running at the time of the caucuses)
- Statewide officials
- Attorney General Adam Laxalt
- State legislators
- Assemblywoman Michelle Fiore
- Assemblywoman Victoria Seaman
- Assemblyman Ira Hansen
- Assemblyman John Moore (also supported Rand Paul)
- Assemblyman Jim Wheeler
- Assemblywoman Vicki Dooling
- Statewide officials
- State Controller Ron Knecht
- State legislators
- Assemblyman John Hambrick (Speaker) (previously endorsed Jeb Bush)
- Assemblywoman Vicki Dooling
- Local officials
- Las Vegas City Councilman Bob Beers
- Statewide officials
- Lieutenant Governor Mark Hutchison
- Former Governor Robert List
- Former Lieutenant Governor Lorraine Hunt-Bono
- U.S. Senators
- U.S. Senator Dean Heller
- U.S. Representatives
- Congressman Mark Amodei
- Congressman Cresent Hardy
- State legislators
- State Senator Michael Roberson (Majority Leader)
- State Senator Joe Hardy (President Pro Tempore)
- State Senator Patricia Farley
- State Senator Becky Harris
- State Senator Scott Hammond
- State Senator Ben Kieckhefer
- Assemblyman Paul Anderson (Majority Leader) (previously endorsed Jeb Bush)
- Assemblyman Stephen Silberkraus
- Assemblyman Lynn Stewart
- Assemblyman Derek Armstrong
- Assemblyman Randy Kirner
- Assemblyman David Gardner (previously endorsed Jeb Bush)
- Assemblyman Glenn Trowbridge
- Assemblyman Pat Hickey
- Assemblyman Erv Nelson
- Local officials
- Former Clark County Commissioner Bruce Woodbury
- Former North Las Vegas Mayor Shari Buck
- State legislators
- Assemblyman Brent Jones
Polling edit
Aggregate polls edit
| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Marco Rubio Republican | Donald Trump Republican | Ted Cruz Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FiveThirtyEight | until February 23, 2016 | February 23, 2016 | 27.1% | 37.1% | 21.0% | Trump +10.0 |
| Poll source | Date | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primary results | February 23, 2016 | Donald Trump45.75% | Marco Rubio23.77% | Ted Cruz21.30% | Ben Carson 4.79%, John Kasich 3.59% |
| CNN/ORC[14] Margin of error: ± 6.5% Sample size: 245 | February 10–15, 2016 | Donald Trump 45% | Marco Rubio 19% | Ted Cruz 17% | Ben Carson 7%, John Kasich 5%, Jeb Bush 1%, Someone else 2%, No opinion 4% |
| Gravis Marketing Margin of error: ± 5% Sample size: 406 | December 23–27, 2015 | Donald Trump 33% | Ted Cruz 20% | Marco Rubio 11% | Ben Carson 6%, Carly Fiorina 5%, Jeb Bush 5%, Chris Christie 5%, Rand Paul 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, John Kasich 0%, Mike Huckabee 0%, Unsure 12% |
| Morning Consult Margin of error: ± 4% Sample size: 249 | November 10–16, 2015 | Donald Trump 38% | Ben Carson 18% | Marco Rubio 12% | Ted Cruz 7%, Jeb Bush 6%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Rand Paul 2%, Chris Christie 1%, John Kasich 1%, Lindsey Graham 1%, Rick Santorum 0%, Someone else 1%, Don't know/No opinion 8% |
| CNN/ORC[15] Margin of error: ± 6% Sample size: 285 | October 3–10, 2015 | Donald Trump 38% | Ben Carson 22% | Carly Fiorina 8% | Marco Rubio 7%, Jeb Bush 6%, Ted Cruz 4%, Mike Huckabee 4%, Rand Paul 2%, Jim Gilmore 1%, Chris Christie 1%, George Pataki 1%, John Kasich 1%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Bobby Jindal 0%, Rick Santorum 0%, None 3%, No opinion 3% |
| Gravis Marketing Margin of error: ± 4% Sample size: 623 | July 12–13, 2015 | Donald Trump 28% | Scott Walker 15% | Ben Carson 8% | Jeb Bush 7%, Marco Rubio 5%, Rand Paul 4%, Ted Cruz 4%, Rick Perry 3%, Bobby Jindal 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Chris Christie 2%, George Pataki 1%, Carly Fiorina 0%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Rick Santorum 0%, Undecided 20% |
| Gravis Marketing Margin of error: ± 5% Sample size: 443 | March 27, 2015 | Ted Cruz 18% | Scott Walker 18% | Jeb Bush 16% | Marco Rubio 7%, Ben Carson 6%, Rand Paul 5%, Chris Christie 4%, Mike Huckabee 4%, Rick Santorum 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Undecided 20% |
| Gravis Marketing Margin of error: ± 5% Sample size: 438 | February 21–22, 2015 | Scott Walker 27% | Jeb Bush 19% | Chris Christie 8% | Ted Cruz 6%, Mike Huckabee 6%, Rick Perry 6%, Marco Rubio 4%, Rick Santorum 4%, Rand Paul 3%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Undecided 16% |
Results edit
Primary date: February 23, 2016
County conventions: March 12 - April 2, 2016 (presumably)
State convention: May 7–8, 2016 (presumably)
National delegates: 30
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 34,531 | 45.75% | 14 | 0 | 14 |
| Marco Rubio | 17,940 | 23.77% | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| Ted Cruz | 16,079 | 21.30% | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| Ben Carson | 3,619 | 4.79% | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| John Kasich | 2,709 | 3.59% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Invalid | 266 | 0.35% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rand Paul (withdrawn) | 170 | 0.23% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeb Bush (withdrawn) | 64 | 0.08% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 50 | 0.07% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carly Fiorina (withdrawn) | 22 | 0.03% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Huckabee (withdrawn) | 21 | 0.03% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rick Santorum (withdrawn) | 11 | 0.01% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jim Gilmore (withdrawn) | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Unprojected delegates: | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Total: | 75,482 | 100.00% | 30 | 0 | 30 |
| Source: The Green Papers | |||||
Delegates were awarded to candidates who got more than 3.33% of the vote proportionally.
Donald Trump received more votes than the combined total of the 2012 Nevada caucuses, while also beating Mitt Romney's previous two records.[16] On the eve of the caucuses, Trump stopped by Palo Verde High School in Summerlin to greet voters.[17]
Results by county edit
| County | Cruz | Rubio | Trump |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carson City | 18.8% | 24.4% | 43.4% |
| Churchill | 23.13% | 25.35% | 39.88% |
| Clark | 19.10% | 24.58% | 48.93% |
| Douglas | 25.88% | 27.09% | 36.44% |
| Elko | 43.84% | 21.22% | 25.32% |
| Esmeralda | 12.16% | 10.81% | 62.16% |
| Eureka | 34.36% | 15.90% | 41.54% |
| Humboldt | 21.90% | 21.09% | 41.83% |
| Lander | 35.66% | 17.35% | 39.76% |
| Lincoln | 44.56% | 16.14% | 28.77% |
| Lyon | 24.52% | 17.45% | 48.24% |
| Mineral | 19.37% | 19.90% | 50.79% |
| Nye | 23.52% | 12.68% | 56.48% |
| Pershing | 28.28% | 19.66% | 40.69% |
| Storey | 21.07% | 15.20% | 42.93% |
| Washoe | 20.87% | 24.58% | 44.13% |
| White Pine | 26.90% | 22.53% | 39.54% |
| TOTAL | 21.38% | 23.85% | 45.91% |
| Source: https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=32&year=2016&f=0&off=0&elect=2 | |||
Analysis edit
Donald Trump overwhelmingly won the caucuses, with Marco Rubio, who for a time lived in Nevada, coming in a distant second. According to exit polls by Edison Research, Trump won among ideologically moderate (50%) and somewhat conservative (55%) voters.[18] Trump carried white caucus-goers with 47% and Latino caucus-goers with 45%.[18][19]
Ted Cruz won two counties, Elko and Nye, the latter of which has a large LDS population.[20] Mormon voters continued to be a strong constituency for Cruz throughout the primary.